A note on the use of correlation coefficients for assessing goodness-of-fit in spatial interaction models

The use of correlation coefficients to evaluate the accuracy of spatial interaction models is inappropriate unless such models have been fitted using least squares techniques. In other cases the correlation involves an implicit intercept value and a regression coefficient that may significantly modify the interaction model's estimates. Researchers have not acknowledged the role of these two parameters when the correlation is used. A generalized root mean square error is proposed as an alternative indicator of accuracy that may be used with any model.     

Longhaul feeder services in an era of changing technology: an Asia-Pacific perspective

Traditional liner carriers, operating in the highly competitive commercial environment of the last few years, have attempted to lower the marginal cost of each box carried. Technological improvements in both construction and propulsion systems have led to a steady growth in carrying capacity. Ships of 600+ TEUs are now in service and, as a result of this trend, have displaced 'smaller' ships from the major east-west trades. The more competitive environment of these trades has in turn led to a redeployment of ships in the 2500+ TEU range to the north-south trades. The result has been a rapid increase in north-south capacity, including feeder services and falling freight rates. Despite the current excess supply in shipping and historically low freight rates, significant developments in technology have created opportunities for new fast containerships. The paper analyses the key economic factors in the differentiation of the new fast ship technology from the traditionally designed containerships and demonstrates the potential financial viability to owners of these new 'greyhounds'.     

Conditional modelling of tanker market risk using route specific freight rates

This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings.     

Study of in-vehicle route guidance systems for improvement of right-side drivers in the Japanese traffic system

A country can adopt one of two standards for traffic flow — cars may travel on the left or right side of the road. When drivers who are accustomed to driving on the right side of the road drive on the left side, and vice versa, the mental workload is likely increased due to the driver’s unfamiliarity with a new language, the position of the driver’s seat, different driving directions, and other factors that differ from those of their home country. One method of doing this is to make sure that the in-vehicle route guidance information (RGI) is not overly complicated — thereby assisting drivers in improving their safety. Consequently, the aim of this study was to facilitate mobility and improve safety for natural right-side drivers driving temporarily in left-side traffic. In this study, driver behavior and workload — given various types of RGI — were evaluated in a driving simulator with a variety of prescribable test conditions. This research was composed of two experiments. In the first, various types of in-vehicle route guidance systems were tested and evaluated in terms of their characteristics and associated driver behaviors (while driving). In the second experiment, systemic factors and effectiveness were evaluated by two combined systems, arrow and map-type information, based on the results of the first experiment. In light of both experiments, the various types of route guidance systems were discussed in terms of their results. A navigation system was proposed to alleviate some of the secondary tasks such as route selection.     

Computer Vision and Highway Automation

A survey is given on the development of machine vision for road vehicle guidance. Through early work in real-time simulation with real hardware in the loop at UBM, and through the EUREKA-project 'Prometheus' from 1987 to 1994 following the 100 th anniversary of road vehicle developments since 1886, Europe has pioneered the field. Since first fully autonomous testdrives in 1986, and first participation in public traffic in 1992, considerable progress has been achieved. With continuous growth in computing power of microprocessors at a rate of about one order of magnitude every four to five years, sufficient performance levels for dynamic machine vision will be available within one or two decades. The principles of dynamic vision as developed at UBM and performance levels achieved are discussed.     

A new methodology for incident detection and characterization on surface streets

In this paper, a new methodology is presented for real-time detection and characterization of incidents on surface streets. The proposed automatic incident detection approach is capable of detecting incidents promptly as well as characterizing incidents in terms of time-varying lane-changing fractions and queue lengths in blocked lanes, lanes blocked due to incidents, and incident duration. The architecture of the proposed incident detection approach consists of three sequential procedures: (1) Symptom Identification for identification of incident symptoms, (2) Signal Processing for real-time prediction of incident-related lane traffic characteristics and (3) Pattern Recognition for incident recognition. Lane traffic counts and occupancy are the only two major types of input data, which can be readily collected from point detectors. The primary techniques utilized in this paper include: (1) a discrete-time, nonlinear, stochastic system with boundary constraints to predict real-time lane-changing fractions and queue lengths and (2) a pattern-recognition-based algorithm employing modified sequential probability ratio tests (MSPRT) to detect incidents. Off-line tests based on simulated as well as video-based real data were conducted to assess the performance of the proposed algorithm. The test results have indicated the feasibility of achieving real-time incident detection using the proposed methodology.     

Identification of potential sites for deep-ocean waste isolation with a geographic site-selection model

Identification of optimal sites for the isolation of waste on the abyssal seafloor was performed with two approaches: by the traditional method of map overlays of relevant attributes, and by a specially developed, automated Site-Selection Model (SSM). Five initial, Surrogate Sites, identified with the map-overlay approach, were then compared with the more rigorously produced scores from the SSM. The SSM, a process for optimization of site locations, accepts subjective, expert-based judgments and transforms them into a quantitative, reproducible, and documented product. The SSM is adaptable to any siting scenario. Forty-one factors relevant to the isolation scenario, including 21 weightable factors having a total of 123 scorable categories, have been entered into the SSM. Factors are grouped under project definition, unique environments, anthropogenic, geologic, biologic, weather, oceanographic and distance criteria. The factor scores are linked to a georeferenced database array of all factors, corresponding to 1°×1° latitude–longitude squares. The SSM includes a total of 2241 one-degree squares within 1000 n.m. of the U.S. coasts, including the western North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, and the eastern North Pacific. Under a carefully weighted and scored scenario of isolation, the most favorable sites identified with the SSM are on the Hatteras and Nares Abyssal Plains in the Atlantic. High-scoring sites are also located in the Pacific abyssal hills province between the Murray and Molokai Fracture Zones. Acceptable 1° squares in the Gulf of Mexico are few and of lower quality, with the optimum location on the northern Sigsbee Abyssal Plain. Two of the five Surrogate Site locations, on the Hatteras and Sigsbee Abyssal Plains, correspond to the best SSM sites in each ocean area. Two Pacific and a second Atlantic Surrogate Site are located in low-scoring regions or excluded by the SSM. Site-selection results from the SSM, although robust, are an initial attempt to quantify the site-selection process. The SSM database exposes a significant lack of high-quality information for many areally mappable attributes on the abyssal seafloor, particularly bottom-current speed and measures of biologic productivity and flux. Terminologies and classifications of some measures, such as sediment types, suffer from parochialism and vary by ocean. Considerable research is needed even for a broad understanding of the environmental measures required to make sound societal decisions about use of the abyssal seafloor for disposal or other purposes.     

Toward regional transportation governance: a case study of Greater Vancouver

This paper discusses the evolving institutional structure and governance of transportation planning, policy development and transit delivery within one major North American city-region, the Greater Vancouver area. Various methods of transportation governance are explored from complete independence to full regional integration. The move away from a direct provincial role in transportation management to a greater regional transit authority is discussed and critiqued. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Some unsettling maritime terms: the interpretation of found, cargo, ballast and voyage

This paper examines the meaning of four common maritime and admiralty terms: found, cargo, ballast and voyage . These terms are problematic because their definitions are elastic which makes application of the terms difficult. The four terms are important because significant legal consequences are attached to each of them, particularly for seamen on flags of convenience (FOC) and crews of convenience (COC) vessels in US ports. The findings of the author are based on personal experience as well as research conducted in preparation as an expert witness in several maritime cases in both the US District Courts and in Louisiana State Courts, personal interviews with seamen on FOC/COC vessels, interviews with legal and economic experts on the international maritime industry and officials of national and international labour organizations.     

Scheduling short-term marine transport of bulk products

A multinational company uses a personal computer to schedule a fleet of coastal tankers and barges transporting liquid bulk products among plants, distribution centres (tank farms), and industrial customers. A simple spreadsheet interface cloaks a sophisticated optimization-based decision support system and makes this system useable via a varity of natural languages. The dispatchers, whose native language is not English, and some of whom presumably speak no English at all, communicate via the spreadsheet, and view recommended schedules displayed in Gantt charts both internationally familiar tools. Inside the spreadsheet, a highly detailed simulation can generate every feasible alternate vessel employment schedule, and an integer linear set partitioning model selects one schedule for each vessel so that all loads and deliveries are completed at minimal cost while satisfying all operational requirements. The optimized fleet employment schedule is displyed graphically with hourly time resolution over a planning horizon of 2-3 weeks. Each vessel will customarily make several voyages and many port calls to load and unload products during this time.