休闲交通：公共交通公司的发展良机

瑞士的休闲交通量已达到650亿乘客／km，这意味着瑞士交通里程中有60％是属 于休闲交通范围内的。所以，未来的公共交通需要对这一巨大的潜能倾注更多的注意。 　　公共交通公司在它们的主要市场 上班族和长期车票使用者 的交通中正面临着扩大经 营的极限。虽然采取适当的调整措施可以增加一定程度的班次，拓宽一些供需渠道，但要实现运输 量的飞跃，只有在特殊情况下才有可能（例如当一个地区的服务业或经济水平迅猛发展时）。 除了山区旅游线路以外，很显然，交通公司的服务重点主要是那些长期乘车的顾客。而与此形成鲜明对 照的，是休闲交通可能提供的其它服务项目，但至少在目前，人们对休闲交通的充分开发还没有足 够的认识。 　　休闲交通的特征 　　休闲交通与日常交通在各方面都有很大的区别。在闲暇时，人们有了更多选择的自由。 人们在闲暇时间里是否有外出的希望，想去干什么和如何去干，都不会受到外界的干预，而在很大 程度上取决于自己。然而，在休闲旅行中经常发生的一窝蜂现象和休闲娱乐基础设施方面的种种缺 陷，却经常使休闲成为一种相似的、团体的行为方式，我们对此需要预先进行仔细的分析。 　　对现代休闲交通的要求     

A model study with light-dependent mortality rates of copepod stages

This paper is based on an advanced ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea (ERGOM [J. Mar. Sys. 25 (3–4) (2005) 405]), but with an increased resolution of the zooplankton stage variable [J. Plankton Res. 23 (2001) 1217; ICES Marine Science 219 (2003) 208]. The model copepods are represented by five stages: eggs, an aggregated variable of nauplii, two aggregated groups of copepodites and adults. The transfer among the stages, i.e., hatching, molting and reproduction, is controlled by food availability and temperature.As usual, the model food web is truncated at the level of zooplankton. The study explores the effects of different parametrization of zooplankton mortality and looks in particular on light-dependent rates. The light climate may serve a proxy for the effects of visual feeding of fish larvae and fish. Different choices of the mortality parameters can result in remarkable differences in abundances and biomass of the model zooplankton and in the timing of its development.It is found that the different choices of mortality affect the development of populations in several ways: Relative small initial differences of abundances at the beginning of the spring bloom are important for the development of the model populations. Higher mortality rates are less important at food rich conditions than at scarce resources. At low phytoplankton levels, the individual development of the copepods through the stages can be faster for elevated mortality rates because then less animals have to share the available food.     

A statistical investigation of time-variant hull girder strength of aging ships and coating life

Risk- and reliability-based approaches are increasingly being applied in assisting inspection and maintenance planning. One of the keys to such approaches is properly predicting the hull girder strength (HG) of gradually degradated hull structures. The development has been limited by the lack of data on aging ships—validation of the developed methods has not been possible. To fill the gap of knowledge on hull strength of ships in service, this paper presents a database of as-gauged hull structures and a statistical study of the time-variant HG of tankers. The expanded data set was collected from 2195 as-gauged girth belts (transverse sections) of 211 single-hull tankers that were 12–32 years old. It was intended to (1) provide actual data on hull girder section modulus (HGSM) of tankers, (2) investigate the general trends of the change in the HG over ships’ service life, and (3) propose formulations for presenting time-variant HGSM and coating life.

The data set demonstrated a high variation of HGSM that changed over time. The mean value and standard deviation of HGSM loss were derived as functions of time. The probability density function (pdf) of coating life was also derived. Comparisons were made between previous studies on HG and the current data set. It was found that almost all previous studies showed much greater HG loss than what this database revealed. The refinement of existing calculations appears to be needed. The data set and statistical study were expected to form the basis for validating formulations of HG that are key components in risk- and reliability-based approaches.     

Prediction of steel plate deformation due to triangle heating using the inherent strain method

In a shipyard, line heating and triangle heating are two major processes carried out by skilled workers to form curved plates in various shapes under various heating conditions. There have been many studies on line heating, but triangle heating has rarely been studied owing to its complicated heating process with irregular multiheating paths and highly concentrated heat input. Triangle heating is the most labor-intensive job. Hence, it is essential for most shipyards to study the automation, as well as the improvement, of the triangle heating process in order to increase hull-forming productivity. In this study, a pioneering attempt to simulate triangle heating was made. A circular disk-spring model is proposed as an analysis model for the elastoplastic procedure of triangle heating, and the inherent strain method is also used to analyze the deformation of plates. The results of the simulation were compared with those of experiments and showed good agreement. It is shown that the present approach and the model used in this study are effective and efficient for simulating triangle heating for the steel plate forming process in shipbuilding.     

Dynamic stability in following seas: predictive and experimental approaches

This article presents work based on the development of a performance-based stability assessment method. It describes a numerical method used to determine the survival limit for a dynamic intact stability assessment procedure. The numerical method utilises a time-domain vessel motion program to assess the limit for a range of vertical centres of gravity (KG). The appropriateness of the numerical predictions was examined through comparison with model experiment results. Free-running model tests were conducted in regular following waves at discrete KGs. A comparison between the survival limits determined through the numerical and experimental methods is presented. The current International Maritime Organisation (IMO) stability criteria are also evaluated against the numerical and experimental dynamic performance-based stability assessment methods.     

Perception bias in route choice

Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against non-chosen options even if these are faster. In this paper, we study travel time perception and route choice of routes with different degrees of road hierarchy and directness. In the Dutch city of Enschede, respondents were asked to choose a route and provide their estimated travel times for both the preferred and alternative routes. These travel times were then compared with actual travel times. Results from previous studies were confirmed and expanded. The shortest time route was chosen in 41 % of the cases while the perceived shortest time route was chosen by almost 80 % of the respondents. Respondents overestimated travel time in general but overestimated the travel time of non-chosen routes more than the travel time of chosen routes. Perception of travel time depends on road hierarchy and route directness, as more direct routes and routes higher up in the hierarchy were perceived as being relatively fast. In addition, there is evidence that these attributes also influence route choice independently of perceived travel time. Finally, travel time perceptions appear to be most strongly biased against non-chosen options when respondents were familiar with the route or indicated a clear preference for the chosen routes. This result indicates that behavior will be more difficult to change for the regular travelers.     

Valuing Estuarine Resource Services Using Economic and Ecological Models: The Peconic Estuary System Study

This article summarizes four integrated economic studies undertaken to contribute to resource preservation and restoration decisions for the Peconic Estuary System of Suffolk County, NY. Completed as part of the National Estuary Program, the studies apply distinct resource valuation methods to a wide range of resource issues. The principal goals of this article are to highlight different methodologies that may be used to assess nonmarket economic values in a coastal management context, and characterize differences in the results that one may expect from each approach. We also emphasize potential relationships among values estimated by different nonmarket methodologies, and comment on the implications of these relationships for the interpretation and use of economic value estimates.     

Traffic accident risk perception among drivers: a latent variable approach

ABSTRACT

Governments require decision tools to deal with road traffic accidents, a pandemic resulting in millions of deaths around the world. Evidence shows that human factors are one of the major causes of road accidents, and there is much interest in identifying variables that may have an impact on drivers’ perception of risk. To this aim, we design a stated choice experiment with eight hypothetical driving scenarios considering attributes that have been strongly associated with increased accident risks: (i) driving speed, (ii) driving the wrong way in a one-way street, (iii) overtaking on a bend, and (iv) driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs. Data from a sample of survey respondents are used to estimate a hybrid discrete choice model incorporating two latent variables, Driver Concentration and Safe Driving. Our results may contribute to the design of public policies geared to prevent accidents by encouraging safer driving behaviour.