Hierarchical ordering of nests in a joint mode and destination choice model

This paper seeks to explore the relationship between mode and destination choice in an integrated nested choice model. A fundamental argument can be made that in certain circumstances, the ordering of choices should be reversed from the usual sequence of destination choice preceding mode choice. This results in a travel demand model where travelers are more likely to change destinations than to change transportation modes. For small and medium size urban areas, particularly in the United States, with less well developed public transit systems that draw few choice riders, this assumption makes much more sense than the traditional modeling assumptions. The models used in the new travel modeling system developed for Knoxville, Tennessee utilize this reversed ordering, with generally good results, which required no external tinkering in the logsum parameters.     

Between-mode-differences in the value of travel time: Self-selection or strategic behaviour?

Using stated preference survey data, we measure the value of travel time for several transport modes. We find, like many before us, that the value of travel time varies across modes in the opposite direction of what would be the consequence of differences in comfort. We examine three candidate causes for the observed differences: Comfort effects, self-selection and strategic behaviour of respondents. Using experiments with both the current and an alternative mode we find that the differences in the value of travel time are consistent with self-selection and comfort effects. Moreover, respondents having bus as the current or the alternative mode seem not to value comfort differently across modes. Strategic behaviour seems to play no role.     

Importance of particle-associated bacterial heterotrophy in a coastal Arctic ecosystem

The large quantities of particles delivered by the Mackenzie River to the coastal Beaufort Sea (Arctic Ocean) have implications for the spatial distribution, composition and productivity of its bacterial communities. Our objectives in this study were: (1) to assess the contribution of particle-associated bacteria (fraction ≥ 3 µm) to total bacterial production and their relationships with changing environmental conditions along a surface water transect; (2) to examine how particle-based heterotrophy changes over the annual cycle (Nov 2003–Aug 2004); and (3) to determine whether particle-associated bacterial assemblages differ in composition from the free-living communities (fraction < 3 µm). Our transect results showed that particle-associated bacteria contributed a variable percentage of leucine-based (BP-Leu) and thymidine-based (BP-TdR) bacterial production, with values up to 98% at the inshore, low salinity stations. The relative contribution of particle-associated bacteria to total BP-Leu was positively correlated with temperature and particulate organic material (POM) concentration. The annual dataset showed low activities of particle-associated bacteria during late fall and most of the winter, and a period of high particle-associated activity in spring and summer, likely related to the seasonal inputs of riverine POM. Results from catalyzed reporter deposition for fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH) confirmed the dominance of Bacteria and presence of Archaea (43–84% and 0.2–5.5% of DAPI counts, respectively), which were evenly distributed throughout the Mackenzie Shelf, and not significantly related to environmental variables. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) revealed changes in the bacterial community structure among riverine, estuarine and marine stations, with separation according to temperature and salinity. There was evidence of differences between the particle-associated and free-living bacterial assemblages at the estuarine stations with highest POM content. Particle-associated bacteria are an important functional component of this Arctic ecosystem. Under a warmer climate, they are likely to play an increasing role in coastal biogeochemistry and carbon fluxes as a result of permafrost melting and increased particle transport from the tundra to coastal waters.     

A Race for Marine Space: Science,Values, and Aquaculture Planning in New Zealand

New Zealand (NZ) has developed a coastal management framework that includes large watersheds and territorial waters (out to 12 nautical miles). The article describes the developing conflicts associated with the biophysical and epistemological dimensions of expanding coastal marine space for aquaculture. We first review aquaculture policy in NZ, and recent evidence of the biophysical impacts from increasing terrestrial inputs on marine ecosystems. We provide a case study of conflict over a recent proposal to expand salmon aquaculture in the Marlborough Sounds, which covers some 4,000 km² of sounds, islands, and peninsulas. Based on information and data from interviews of stakeholders involved in the aquaculture planning, we describe three diverse epistemologies of science—client-based science, civic science, and Māori traditional ecological knowledge. We conclude the article with a critical review of how to better resolve spatial conflicts that often emerge in coastal management and planning.     

How can we alter our carbon footprint? Estimating GHG emissions based on travel survey information

The city of Montreal has taken recent initiatives to significantly reduce overall greenhouse (GHG) emissions from the transport sector and has made large investments in alternative transportation. In particular, the city has called upon the participation of all businesses and institutions to further these goals. In light of these recent plans, this study identifies with two objectives: first, to develop a methodology for estimating GHG emissions generated by commuters to McGill University’s downtown campus; and secondly, to better understand who, how, and when each commuter to McGill generates travel-related GHG. Mode split, travel distance, age, gender and job category were uncovered by a 2011 travel survey that we conducted across the University, from which daily individual GHG emissions are estimated. Details about these trips not only reveal who the largest polluters are and where they are coming from, but also the seasonality of their emissions. These associations are then used to narrate scenarios which present alternatives to the structure of individuals’ commutes by examining the outcomes of selected shifts in travel behavior on total GHG emissions.     

Heterogeneous archaeal communities in the particle-rich environment of an arctic shelf ecosystem

We evaluated the phylogenetic diversity of particle-associated and free-living archaeal assemblages from the Mackenzie River and Beaufort Sea in the western Canadian Arctic. The physico-chemical characteristics of the water separated the sampling sites into three groups: riverine, coastal and marine water, which had strikingly different archaeal communities. The riverine water was characterised by the presence of Euryarchaeota mainly belonging to the LDS and RC-V clusters. The coastal water was also dominated by Euryarchaeota but they were mostly affiliated to Group II.a. The marine waters contained most exclusively Crenarchaeota belonging to the Marine Group I.1a. The results suggest that Euryarchaeota in the coastal surface layer are associated with particle-rich waters, while Crenarchaeota are more characteristic of Arctic Ocean waters that have been less influenced by riverine inputs. The particle-associated communities were similar to the free-living ones at the riverine and marine sites but differed from each other at the coastal site in terms of the presence or absence of some taxonomic groups in one of the fractions, or differences in the proportion of the phylogenetic groups. However, there was no specific archaeal group that was exclusively restricted to the free-living or particle fraction, and the diversity of the particle-associated archaeal assemblages did not significantly differ from the diversity of the free-living communities.     

Developing MPA Effectiveness Indicators: Comparison Within and Across Stakeholder Groups and Communities

Shared expectations about marine protected areas (MPAs) might be expected to enhance their effectiveness. This study determined whether members of local communities had common or divergent views about the objectives and indicators of MPA effectiveness. In the central Philippines we used unconstrained and constrained methods to interview people in five stakeholder groups (elders, fishers, leaders, women, and youth) associated with each of 10 community-based no-take MPAs that had been protected between 0 and 21 years. Respondents identified multiple MPA objectives, the most frequently mentioned of which was restoring and sustaining fish populations. The results suggest that MPA age accounts for the greatest level of variation across communities. When unconstrained, progress in enforcement was identified as a key indicator among respondents from younger MPAs while respondents from older MPAs identified increased fish abundance and catch. Although consensus can be reached more easily under constrained conditions, the results derived from unconstrained methods are more revealing of the needs and aspirations of communities. These are likely to contribute more to the search for appropriate management interventions, particularly given that MPAs evolve over time. Hence, the development of MPA effectiveness indicators must be an iterative community-informed process to ensure timely and relevant management interventions.     

Economic indicators for the US transportation sector

Since the transportation sector plays an important role in business cycle propagation, we develop indicators for this sector to identify its current state, and predict its future. We define the reference cycle, including both business and growth cycles, for this sector over the period from 1979 using both the conventional National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) method and modern time series models. A one-to-one correspondence between cycles in the transportation sector and those in the aggregate economy is found; however, both business and growth cycles of transportation often start earlier and end later than those of the overall economy. We also construct an index of leading indicators for the transportation sector using rigorous statistical procedures, and is found to perform well as a forecasting tool.     

Analyzing commuter train user behavior: a decision framework for access mode and station choice

The purpose of the current research effort is to develop a framework for a better understanding of commuter train users’ access mode and station choice behavior. Typically, access mode and station choice for commuter train users is modeled as a hierarchical choice with access mode being considered as the first choice in the sequence. The current study proposes a latent segmentation based approach to relax the hierarchy. In particular, this innovative approach simultaneously considers two segments of station and access mode choice behavior: Segment 1—station first and access mode second and Segment 2—access mode first and station second. The allocation to the two segments is achieved through a latent segmentation approach that determines the probability of assigning the individual to either of these segments as a function of socio-demographic variables, level of service (LOS) parameters, trip characteristics, land-use and built environment factors, and station characteristics. The proposed latent segment model is estimated using data from an on-board survey conducted by the Agence Métropolitaine de Transport for commuter train users in Montreal region. The model is employed to investigate the role of socio-demographic variables, LOS parameters, trip characteristics, land-use and built environment factors, and station characteristics on commuter train user behavior. The results indicate that as the distance from the station by active forms of transportation increases, individuals are more likely to select a station first. Young persons, females, car owners, and individuals leaving before 7:30 a.m. have an increased propensity to drive to the commuter train station. The station model indicates that travel time has a significant negative impact on station choice, whereas, presence of parking and increased train frequency encourages use of the stations.     

Forecasting Freight Flows

Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment. This article models long-term dynamic physical trade flows and estimates a dynamic panel data model for foreign trade for the EU15 and two countries from the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) 1967–2002. The analysis suggests that a dynamic three-way-effects gravity equation is the best-fitted econometric model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.