A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

钢筋混凝土桥梁裂缝成因分析

钢筋混凝土桥梁开裂是桥梁工程中普遍存在的现象，它不仅影响结构的外观和使用寿命，还危及到结构的安全。此文针对钢筋混凝土桥梁工程中常见的裂缝现象，分别阐述了产生裂缝的原因，以寻求控制裂缝的有效办法。     

Exact Equations for Tractrix Curves Associated with Vehicle Offtracking

Vehicle offtracking behavior at low speeds is closely approximated by a geometric entity called a tractrix. This paper presents differential equations for generalized coordinates of a planar multibody vehicle model based on tractrix behavior. The equations are exact, can be used with any type of input path, are valid for forward and backward movements, and are much simpler than previously published formulations used to compute transient offtracking. The differential equations can be integrated using conventional numerical integration algorithms to obtain plots of the low-speed tracking performance of articulated vehicles. The equations were formulated symbolically by a computer program used to analyze the kinematic and dynamic behavior of multibody systems. Example numerical results are plotted.     

基于图像处理的桥墩防撞预警系统的研究

利用图像处理硬件设备，通过摄像头将视频信息采入，送入DSP进行分析处理；专门视频信息处理软件，运用各种图像处理技术，进行实时处理分析，对船舶进行实时监控。当船舶进入预警区，经计算机判断处理，提醒监控人员并通过广播对船舶驾驶人员发出警告，避免事故发生。 在图像序列处理技术的开发中，采用软硬件分离的方法，先进行基于Visual C＋＋的计算机软件设计研究；在软件中，研究了船舶检测、船舶跟踪与计算等内容。     

Development and Deployment of Public Transport Policy and Planning in Taiwan

Over the past decade, the escalating roadway congestion and environmental deterioration due to heavy use of private vehicles have provoked the Taiwan government to realize the importance of public transport systems. Under the “carrot-and-stick” rationales, the government has formulated public transport policies and exercised a series of related initiatives by providing sufficient and higher quality of public transport services so as to attract more private vehicle users. In this paper, the planning philosophy and policy formulation of Taiwan’s public transport development are highlighted. The most important initiatives, including the Five-year Enhancement of Mass Transportation Program and the upgrading public transport schemes in the National Development Plan are examined. Based on previous experience and lessons, we point out the most challenging issues that the government will encounter. Suggestions for the future of public transport planning are also addressed.     

带有改编能力限制的编组计划优化模型及算法

本文用一个非线性０－１规模模型，来描述带有改编能力限制的技术直达列车编组计划问题。能力约束增加了该问题的计算难度。这是一个ＮＰＣ问题。因此，获得一个全局最优解是困难的。本文用模拟退火算法解该问题。该算法可以以很高的概率获得全局最优解。文末列出了两个数值例子，并分别同了考虑和不考虑改编能车约束两种情况下的计算结果。     

TDZ Ⅲ型复合弹性轨枕的技术经济分析

我国既有铁路桥涵等地段的道床厚度普遍不足,成为制约既有铁路提速和重载发展的因素之一。通过对复合弹性轨枕的技术经济分析表明,既有线换铺弹性轨枕技术上是合理的,经济上是可行的。结合试验和工程实践,对桥上线路抬道作业和涵洞改造进行了分析比较,铺设复合弹性轨枕和轨下垫板费用低,改善了轨道结构的使用性能和轨道的各项动力性能,降低了道床残余变形累积速率,保持了道床的稳定性,减少了维护成本,降低了能耗和施工作业对运输生产的干扰。     

天津滨海新区一次风暴潮天气过程分析

从天气形势、影响系统并结合雷达资料和水文资料对2003年10月11日天津滨海新区发生的暴雨、风暴潮天气过程进行分析，得出贝湖强冷空气东移南下，与地面倒槽并存，产生持续的偏东大风，再赶上天文大潮日，有可能造成暴雨、灾害性大风、风暴潮灾害性天气。     

Should the user pay?

The paper puts the case that historical analysis helps to understand current discussions on user-pays principles and practice. In particular, (a) it is demonstrated that the nature of funding systems is dominated by political considerations, and (b) user-pays systems lead to inadequate funding of infrastructure when politically controlled, but provide funds for expansion when “market-driven” (in pursuit of profit maximisation). The case is illustrated by reference to the experience of interregional transport infrastructure in 19th century in England and 20th century Australia. Revenue deficiencies arising from government-controlled rates can lead to the demise of private transport infrastructure. The problem is considered in the context of the history of interregional roads and railways in England between the 15th and 19th century in England and in Australia in the 19th and 20th century. The current embrace by government of the user-pays system in transport services arises from fiscal deficiencies, as much from economic philosophy. User-pays policies are part of the global re-emergence of economic rationalism since the 1970s. The lesson for other nations from Australia's experience is twofold. First, in a federal system of government, despite the efficiency benefits of user-pays in interregional land transport, fiscal and political objectives will prevail. Second, in sparsely populated and/or developing countries, deregulation of long distance road transport will make funding a national highway system a critical concern.     

Using longitudinal methods for analysis of a short-term transportation demonstration project

This paper documents an application of panel, or longitudinal data collection in the evaluation of a TSM (Transportation Systems Management) demonstration project. The project was a four-week demonstration of staggered work hours in downtown Honolulu during February–March 1988. The 4 wave panel survey elicited commuting experiences of approximately 2,000 downtown employees at two week intervals before and during the project. The sample involved both employees who participated in the project by shifting their work hours, and those who did not. The panel survey was augmented by floating-car observations of travel times on major routes into downtown Honolulu on the same four dates.The purpose of the analysis was to determine whether employee commute times were affected, and if so, how these changes were distributed among various employee segments. Two methods were used. First, travel time changes were estimated using paired t-tests. Second, regression equations were used to estimate project time savings as a function of trip length, route, and location of residence. Results show that travel time savings due to the project were typically small, less than ten percent. Nonparticipants experienced greater savings than participants, and some segments of participants experienced longer travel times during the project. The panel method proved to be an effective way to measure project travel time impacts and shows that the method is appropriate in short time applications.Presented at the Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, January 7–11. 1990, Washington, D.C.