An analysis of seasonality of non-OPEC supply

The purpose of this study is first to find out whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, second, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the forecast yearly average into quarterly averages. A set of historical data consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and the aggregate non-OPEC supply for the period 1973-2002 forms the basis of the analysis. The study applies Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the years 2000-2002 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the historical annual averages. The accuracy of the results of the application of X-11 is then tested. It is demonstrated that the combination of the Fourier and X-11 methods provides mostly acceptable and in some cases, such as that of China, impressively accurate forecast quarterly supply averages.     

The legal framework

The major and minor ports in India operate within different legal frameworks. Both allow privatization, but impose different conditions. Administrative culture has acted as a constraint on privatization in the major ports; private development at the minor ports has been very responsive to the amount of assistance offered by individual States.     

A spatial equilibrium port cargo projection model

A mathematical spatial programming model developed to analyse changes in international and hinterland commodity flows through a regional port system is applied to wheat shipments through the U.S. Pacific Northwest port system. Two scenarios, one focusing on a Chinese quarantine on wheat shipments from the Pacific Northwest and the other on possible closure of barge transportation on the Columbia-Snake River, illustrate the capacity of the model to evaluate the impacts of international and hinterland shocks on the regional port system.     

FE modeling method for a headform used in pedestrian protection simulations

Finite element models of headforms are used in experimental simulations of pedestrian protection. In this study, a quick and accurate method for FE modeling of the headforms was developed. This method entailed the initial definition of the dimensional parameters for the mass, centroid, and inertial moment properties of the headform. The equations governing these properties were constructed using the dimensional parameters as design variables. The dimensional parameters meeting the requirements of the relevant regulations were obtained by solving these three equations. A design optimization model was constructed for the material parameters of the outer part of the headform. In this model, the parameters of the material used in the FE model were considered as design variables; the difference between the peak acceleration in a side-impact simulation test and the average value of the regulated acceleration range was used as the objective function; the first-order natural frequency, which was required to be greater than 5,000 Hz, was defined as one of the constraints; the peak drop acceleration, which was required to be within the regulated range of values, was defined as the second constraint. The material parameters were obtained by solving the optimization model. These material parameters meet the dynamic requirements of the regulations for headforms. Based on these three parameters, an FE model of a headform can be constructed quickly and accurately.