A probability analysis of some spatial interaction models

This paper derives several well-known spatial models in a framework based upon the laws of conditional probability analysis. In particular, it relates the structure of some existing models of trip distribution, elementary residential location and residential location with capacity constraints, to either the multinomial or hypergeometric probability distributions. The major changes from traditional methods for developing these models deal with the derivation and form of the objective function for each interaction model. This alternative analysis reaches a wider audience than that only familiar with entropy methods and leads to several improvements in generality. Further, when population constraints were imposed on residential location models, it was found that the model which developed naturally from the approach taken in the paper contained as a special case the model proposed by Dacey and Norcliffe and not the Wilson model.     

A New Wheel/Rail Spatially Dynamic Coupling Model and its Verification

Based on the theory of vehicle-track coupling dynamics, a new wheel/rail spatially dynamic coupling model is established in this paper. In consideration of rail lateral, vertical and torsion vibrations and track irregularities, the wheel/rail contact geometry, the wheel/rail normal contact force and the wheel/rail tangential creep force are solved in detail. In the new wheel/rail model, the assumption that wheel contacts rail rigidly and wheel always contacts rail is eliminated. Finally, by numeric simulation comparison with international well-known software NUCARS, comparison with vehicle-track vertical coupling model, and comparison with running test results by China Academy of Railway Sciences, the new wheel/rail spatially dynamic coupling model is shown to be correct and effective.     

Household trip generation choice—Alternative empirical approaches

Trip generation models have generally received less attention than other aspects of travel decision making. This article presents some explorations into the structure of trip decisions for shopping, using data from weekly shopping diaries. The paper compares alternative formulations of the naturally-ordered choice model used by Sheffi (1979) to avoid the problems inherent in multinomial logit models. Firstly, imposing cross-alternative restrictions on some of the coefficient values is termed the constrained model. Secondly, when no such restrictions are imposed, the model decomposes into a sequence of binary models, and this is termed the unconstrained model, which can be used to test the validity of the restrictions. The variables used include both shopping expenditures and locational factors, both of which are found to play a key role in shopping travel decisions, as well as more conventional socio-economic variables. A clearer understanding of the role of car ownership in travel decisions is obtained.     

The importance of time in transit and reliability of transit time for shippers,receivers, and carriers

Reliability of transit time is reputed to be the most important variable influencing freight transport today, according to shipper surveys. Average transit time also plays a major role. A model is developed that shows how a cost-minimizing shipper will adjust its economic order quantity as reliability and/or time in transit changes. Such changes impact on average inventory costs, ordering costs, expected shortage costs and expected excess costs. The model is developed for both discrete and continuous transit time distributions. Reliability is defined as the variance of transit time. A matrix is prepared for some sample data, which shows the minimum cost attainable with each mean/variance of transit time distribution. Comparing across rows and columns of the matrix enables one to show the value (reduction in total cost) obtainable by improving reliability and/or mean transit time. In addition, value can be obtained by improving reliability while increasing average transit time. It is suggested that the model can be used for shippers in negotiating service improvements with carriers and by carriers in negotiating service improvements with shippers. In the former case, the carrier can determine how much they are willing to pay for the improvement, whereas in the latter case, the carriers can determine how much they are able to charge for the improvement.     

A fuzzy method for predicting the demand for rail freight transportation

The demand for rail freight transportation is a continuously changing process over space and time and is affected by many quantitative and qualitative factors. In order to develop a more rational transport planning process to be followed by railway organizations, there is a need to accurately forecast freight demand under a dynamic and uncertain environment. In conventional linear regression analysis, the deviations between the observed and the estimated values are supposed to be due to observation errors. In this paper, taking a different perspective, these deviations are regarded as the fuzziness of the system's structure. The details of fuzzy linear regression method are put forward and discussed in the paper. Based on an analyzes of the characteristics of the rail transportation problem, the proposed model was successfully applied to a real example from China. The results of that application are also presented here.     

Transportation and energy—A future confrontation

An examination of the relationship between energy supplies and transportation systems indicates that a major confrontation is forthcoming. Predictions of the world's petroleum supplies and the primary dependence of transportation systems on petroleum show that there will be a depletion of these supplies in the next 50 years unless major changes in transportation and energy planning and policy making are forthcoming. A closer examination of specific transportation systems through the use of the transportation/ energy efficiency indicates that automobiles, aircraft and intercity trucking are most inefficient on a mobility per unit of petroleum basis. Recommendations on the difficult problem of how to account for the depletion characteristics of transportation systems are given. These include coordinated transportation and energy planning, restricted petroleum and transportation toll and tax rates, research and development on propulsion systems less dependent on petroleum, and a shifting of emphasis to higher transportation/energy efficiency systems such as compact automobiles, buses and trains.