The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

Aggregating mobile object trajectories: cumulative time geographic density estimation for GPS data

We present new approaches that expand upon the time geographic density estimation (TGDE) framework previously employed to estimate potential path trees. In the past, TGDE metrics have identified possible locations an individual moving object may have passed between, given known origin and destination points. This paper utilizes a new form of TGDE to investigate taxicab GPS traces over a specified time horizon with position ‘gaps’. To this end, we propose a new extension to the TGDE framework, TGDE-C, which is used to determine the cumulative TGDE values for a group of GPS traces, at a given location. These metrics are applied to multiple taxis and allow for time of day analysis. Additionally, we combine these new extensions with existing TGDE metrics that allow us to determine how accessible individual or groups of vehicles are to urban opportunities.     

Model Test on Grouting Law in Dynamic Water-Rich Sand Layers by the Electric Resistance Method北大核心CSCD

In order to study the diffusion law of grouting slurry in the water-rich sand layer under flowing water conditions, a grouting test model consisting of a main test system, a grouting system, and a measurement system was developed. And for detecting the diffusion scope of the grouts, a new resistivity method was proposed. It is found that the relationship between grouting pressure and grouting rate during the test is strong. Under hydrodynamic conditions, the grouting slurry diffuses elliptically. Due to gravity and the effect of the upper water flow, the center of gravity of the ellipsoid is below the grouting outlet, and the grouting effectively improves the physical and mechanical properties of water-rich sand bodies. At the same time, the resistivity method has a good application effect on the detection of grouting diffusion range. The range of slurry diffusion obtained by the resistivity method is basically consistent with the boundary of the stone body after excavation, indicating that the resistivity method is reliable for detection of grouting range in dynamic water-rich sand layer. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Coastal Tourist Interest in Value-Added,Aquaculture-Based,Culinary Tourism Opportunities

Despite increasing focus on sustainable aquaculture investment in the U.S. coastal zones, the aquaculture industry continues to face skepticism among consumers due to perceived negative environmental impacts, and health and food safety concerns. Partnering with culinary tourism and local food promotion efforts has potential for improving public outreach about the benefits of aquaculture, especially in coastal destinations where sustainable marine aquaculture and tourism are both occurring. Culinary tourism implies that local foods reflect the local livelihood and culture, and may be important to the tourist's experience. Aquaculture is becoming increasingly valuable to coastal destinations for assuring the steady availability of local seafood to meet demand and retaining commercial fisheries as a means to differentiate themselves to tourists. This study examined the role of subjective knowledge and attitude about aquaculture, and their effect on intention to participate in value-added culinary aquaculture tourism experiences. The study found that tourists' subjective knowledge and attitude about aquaculture influenced intentions to participate in culinary aquaculture tourism. In order for farmers or tour operators to be successful in diversifying with value-added culinary aquaculture, attention needs to be paid to educating consumers, which may be possible through strategic partnerships with tourism organizations, chefs, and restaurants.     

Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes

There is an increase in risks and catastrophic losses in maritime transport including ports and cargo. Significant losses have been associated with large scale natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclones, and other extreme weather events. This paper identifies the main gaps in understanding maritime risks in transportation research. The gaps are attributed to insufficient empirical work available from the maritime transport and logistics research community to guide multi-risk and natural hazards impact assessment on seaport and cargo. In addition, disaster studies communities have barely made adequate efforts to understand and assess port and cargo risks arising from multi-hazards and disaster events. This paper examines existing conceptual frameworks concerning exposure and risk assessments of natural catastrophe’s impacts. Furthermore, the paper identifies trends and gaps in risk assessment frameworks in the field of disaster studies that can be beneficial for maritime risk research. The authors propose a new risk assessment framework that can guide future research and multi-hazard risk assessment processes at different scales of maritime risks.     

Dynamics of inorganic nutrient species in the Bohai seawaters

Within the frame of a Sino-German Joint Research Program, two cruises of “R/V Dong Fang Hong 2” were carried out in September–October 1998 and April–May 1999, respectively, to understand the dynamics of nutrients in the Bohai. Nutrient species (NO₃⁻, NO₂⁻, NH₄⁺, PO₄³⁻ and SiO₃²⁻) are determined colorimetrically on board for five anchor and 30 grid stations. In situ incubation experiments are performed to determine planktonic nutrient uptake and benthic exchange flux. Nutrient concentrations display short-term variability and seasonal change in the Bohai, with higher levels in shallow coastal waters than in the Central Bohai. The influence of riverine discharge on nutrient levels can be seen from salinity isopleths, nutrient distribution and species ratios. Near-bottom (nb) waters have similar nutrient concentrations as to the surface waters in the Central Bohai, whereas stratification takes place in the Bohai Strait and North Yellow Sea. In situ incubation experiments provide evidence that the uptake ratio (i.e. N, P) by phytoplankton is proportional to the ratios among nutrient species in ambient waters. Based on the data of this study and previously publications, a preliminary estimate of nutrient budgets via riverine input and atmospheric deposition is established. The results indicate that atmospheric deposition gains importance over rivers in delivering nutrients into the Bohai and sustain the new production, following recent decrease in riverine inflow caused by drought periods in North China and damming practices. A historical review of nutrient data indicates that concentrations of nitrogen increase and phosphorus and silica decrease in the Central Bohai over last 40 years. This potentially has an important influence on the health of ecosystem in Bohai (e.g. food web and community structure), though further study is needed to examine the scenario in more detail.     

Egg production and associated losses of carbon, nitrogen and fatty acids from maternal biomass in Calanus finmarchicus before the spring bloom

We present concurrent data on ingestion, egg production and the loss of maternal biomass in pre-spring bloom female Calanus finmarchicus incubated under conditions representative of those in situ in the North Atlantic. A balanced metabolic budget was constructed and used to examine the relative importance of ingestion and biomass for fuelling egg production during the incubations. Ingested carbon was not sufficient to meet the observed demands for egg production. More than 80% of the carbon utilised by the females was instead derived from their biomass. Fatty acid analysis demonstrated that the storage reserves, 20:1 (n−9) and 22:1 (n−11), were virtually absent before experimentation began, and therefore could not have been used to supply the carbon required for egg production during the incubations. The C:N mass-specific ratio of the biomass utilised was 4.1, suggesting that the females had instead catabolised protein in order to meet their metabolic demands. These results suggest that C. finmarchicus adopts a sacrificial reproductive strategy when food availability is low.     

The use of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as a particulate tracer in the water column of Gaoping (Kaoping) Submarine Canyon

Time-series samples of settling particles were collected in the water column of Gaoping (formerly spelled Kaoping) Submarine Canyon (KPSC) with two sediment traps on taut-line moorings deployed at two different depths (60 and 280 m) between May 26 and June 27, 2004. Average total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations of upper and lower trap array samples were 310 ± 61 ng g^− 1 dw (range: 200–440) and 240 ± 36 ng g^− 1 dw (range: 180–290), respectively. Principal component analysis results suggest that PAH sources in the trap-collected particles included diesel vehicle/coal burning, diagenetic sources, and petroleum release. PAH downward fluxes based on settling particles were estimated to be 12–44 μg m^− 2 d^− 1. These values are higher than those reported in the literature for most coastal areas. During the sampling period, both traps were significantly tilted by tidal current and fluctuated vertically. The upper traps experienced greater vertical movements, thus their particle characteristics (e.g., POC, particle mass, and fine particle fraction) varied more than those of the lower traps. Hourly depth variations of the tilted sediment trap array were echoed by the corresponding total PAH concentrations. Moreover, the PAH composition of the collected particles was related to the flow direction and speed. These observations suggest that PAHs can be used as an effective chemical tracer for the transport of terrestrial and marine particulates in a complex aquatic environment like Gaoping (Kaoping) Submarine Canyon.     

The structure of dissipation in the western Irish Sea front

We report on an intensive campaign in the summer of 2006 to observe turbulent energy dissipation in the vicinity of a tidal mixing front which separates well mixed and seasonally stratified regimes in the western Irish Sea. The rate of turbulent dissipation ε was observed on a section across the front by a combination of vertical profiles with the FLY dissipation profiler and horizontal profiles by shear sensors mounted on an AUV (Autosub). Mean flow conditions and stratification were obtained from a bed mounted ADCP and a vertical chain of thermistors on a mooring. During an Autosub mission of 60 h, the vehicle, moving at a speed of ~ 1.2 m s^− 1, completed 10 useable frontal crossings between end points which were allowed to move with the mean flow. The results were combined with parallel measurements of the vertical profile of ε which were made using FLY for periods of up to 13 h at positions along the Autosub track. The two data sets, which show a satisfactory degree of consistency, were combined to elucidate the space–time variation of dissipation in the frontal zone. Using harmonic analysis, the spatial structure of dissipation was separated from the strong time dependent signal at the M₄ tidal frequency to yield a picture of the cross-frontal distribution of energy dissipation. A complementary picture of the frontal velocity field was obtained from a moored ADCP and estimates of the mean velocity derived from the thermal wind using the observed density distribution. which indicated the presence of a strong (0.2 m s^− 1) jet-like flow in the high gradient region of the front. Under neap tidal conditions, mean dissipation varied across the section by 3 orders of magnitude exceeding 10^− 2 W m^− 3 near the seabed in the mixed regime and decreasing to 10^− 5 W m^− 3. in the strongly stratified interior regime. The spatial pattern of dissipation is consistent in general form with the predictions of models of tidal mixing and does not reflect any strong influence by the frontal jet.