基于AHP的港口安全风险模糊评判方法

针对我国港口安全风险的现状,从系统工程角度,采用层次分析法的基本原理,建立了港口安全风险分析模型,并运用模糊数学构建了隶属函数,求得港口安全风险的模糊评判矩阵,通过模糊评判获得了港口安全风险综合分数.结果表明,该评判方法能够科学合理地综合评价港口安全风险状况,为有关港口部门改善港口安全状况提供决策依据.     

Product substitution and dual sourcing under random supply failures

Product substitution can mitigate supply chain disruptions. However, it may not be very effective without multiple sourcing. In this paper, we consider a supply chain with two downward substitutable products. The products can be ordered from an unreliable supplier or a reliable but more expensive supplier. It is found that in an optimal sourcing policy the higher-grade product should be preferred over the lower-grade product. A sufficient condition is given for an optimal policy where only the higher-grade product is dual-sourced. The effect of substitution is contrasted with the non-substitution case. Numerical study shows the impact of demand variability and correlation on the effect of product substitution and the corresponding optimal sourcing policy.     

A bayesian dynamic linear model approach for real-time short-term freeway travel time prediction

This paper presents a Bayesian inference-based dynamic linear model (DLM) to predict online short-term travel time on a freeway stretch. The proposed method considers the predicted freeway travel time as the sum of the median of historical travel times, time-varying random variations in travel time, and a model evolution error, where the median is employed to recognize the primary travel time pattern while the variation captures unexpected supply (i.e. capacity) reduction and demand fluctuations. Bayesian forecasting is a learning process that revises sequentially the state of a priori knowledge of travel time based on newly available information. The prediction result is a posterior travel time distribution that can be employed to generate a single-value (typically but not necessarily the mean) travel time as well as a confidence interval representing the uncertainty of travel time prediction. To better track travel time fluctuations during non-recurrent congestion due to unforeseen events (e.g., incidents, accidents, or bad weather), the DLM is integrated into an adaptive control framework that can automatically learn and adjust the system evolution noise level. The experiment results based on the real loop detector data of an I-66 segment in Northern Virginia suggest that the proposed method is able to provide accurate and reliable travel time prediction under both recurrent and non-recurrent traffic conditions.     

VMT自动导向系统在盾构法施工中的应用和研究

利用自动仿真技术,结合应用广泛的测量仪器,针对盾构法地铁施工,采用无线数据传输功能,方便、快捷地将盾构机掘进姿态以图形和文字的双重效果实时显示在计算机屏幕上,指导盾构机操作手调整盾构掘进参数,可真正实现操作可视化、同步化。     

隧道衬砌施工缝蝶形可排水止水带研制

文章分析了隧道衬砌施工缝渗漏水产生的原因,在可排水中埋式、背贴式止水带技术的基础上开发了蝶形可排水止水带.该止水带属新型中埋式止水带,其断面呈蝶形.安装时将蝴蝶的头部朝向施工缝的迎水侧;从侧面(先浇衬砌段一侧)将止水带压向衬砌段的端头模板,使后浇衬砌段一侧的止水翼变形紧贴端头模板,并用带垫片的钢钉从肋部间隔适当距离逐点固定止水带;先浇衬砌段浇筑并养护一段时间后拆模,先前被压平的后浇衬砌段的止水翼在橡胶等材料弹性的作用下恢复变形;浇筑后浇段衬砌混凝土,即可完成一道施工缝的防水施工.蝶形可排水止水带的优点是:安装方便,容易保证止水带施工质量;属中埋式,可保证在隧道两侧和顶部其周围均能密实;具有可排水功能,在无压力或小压力条件下工作,减少了渗漏机会.     

基于物元模型的公交智能调度方案评价方法

文章以物元模型为切入点,阐述了基于物元模型的公交智能化调度评价方法及算法,并通过对某高客流量线路的传统全程车调度、传统大站快车调度、公交智能化全程车调度三种调度方案的综合评价分析,验证了该方法的有效性。     

2 500 TEU集装箱船的总体设计

随着人们对环境保护的日益重视,越来越多的法规对船舶设计提出更高的环保要求.通过2 500 TEU集装箱船的总体设计,对装载和破舱稳性等总体性能等进行了设计计算,使该船布置合理紧凑,各项指标达到国际先进水平.但燃油舱划分和分布要满足有关新规划,还需作适当调整.     

基于GPRS船舶燃油监控管理系统的研制

为了满足船舶油耗状况参数的采集与处理分析,本文对基于GPRS移动网络、组态软件的网桥通信实现方法,及API应用程序接口进行了研究,应用GPRS技术、组态软件和智能传感器,研制了B／S架构的船舶燃油监控管理系统,并进行了实船试验。     

农村公路养护管理评价指标体系研究

农村公路养护管理评价体系是一个多维的系统,不仅要对道路养护技术水平进行评价,也需要对日常养护水平、安全畅通、路网质量等要素进行综合评价。文中综合考虑了影响农村公路养护管理的各要素,建立了包含目标层、准则层、指标层的三级农村公路养护管理评价指标体系,并提出了农村公路养护管理评价实施的逻辑过程,即养护管理要素评价-养护要素预测-养护决策。     

起重吊钩的计算方法探讨

比较起重吊钩计算中公式法与有限元分析方法的差异,结合实际使用情况,给出在不同工作级别下选取吊钩危险截面参数的方法。