从全球角度透视巴拿马运河扩建及海运业的发展(英文)

2007年6月13日,巴拿马运河管理局在上海浦东香格里拉大酒店举办“巴拿马海运日”,巴拿马运河管理局国际顾问委员会主席、国际海事组织(IMO)前秘书长威廉·A·奥尼尔先生在开幕仪式上发表了演讲。奥尼尔先生的讲话着重强调海运在当代经济和社会发展中不可替代的巨大作用,集装箱化又是影响最大的因素之一,而且在可持续发展大趋势下,海运又是能效最高、对生态环境最友好的运输方式。演讲还指出海运事业广泛的国际性以及各国政府在政策法规等方面合作和协调对发展全球海运业的重要意义。奥尼尔先生高度赞扬巴拿马运河回归后的出色管理,以及运河在21世纪,尤其是在扩建计划完成后,对世界航运业的重大贡献。应本刊之约,讲演稿由作者修改后发表如下。     

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行程时间的不确定性是影响货运车队路径选择的一个重要因素，特别是对于要求货物准时送达的配送任务（例如商品混凝土的配送），提出了在车辆调度中考虑由拥挤路段交通流量波动引起的行程时间不确定性的方法，建立了考虑行程时间可靠性要求的车辆优化调度数学模型，给出了相应的启发式算法，通过算例介绍了该模型和算法的应用。结果表明配送总成本随行程时间可靠性要求的提高而增加。     

Airline Jet Fuel Hedging: Theory and Practice

Abstract

Most international airlines hedge fuel costs, but the theoretical justification behind this action is weak. The paper explores the nature and extent of airline fuel hedging and asks why airlines hedge. The availability of hedging instruments is first discussed, with the most liquid markets in crude and exchange traded contracts. Aviation fuel contracts are possible, but with counter‐party risk. Most major passenger airlines with sufficient cash and credit now hedge at least part of their future needs. Hedging does protect profits against a sudden upturn in crude prices caused by political and consumer uncertainty leading to slower economic growth. However, if higher oil prices are induced by strong economic growth and oil supply constraints, hedging increases volatility with hedging gains reinforcing improved profits from higher traffic and improved yields. If hedging does not reduce volatility, it may still have an accounting role in moving profits from one time period to another, insure against bankruptcy, and signal the competence of management to investors and other stakeholders.     

A State-of-the-Art Review of Car-Following Models with Particular Considerations of Heavy Vehicles

Abstract

Car-following (CF) models are fundamental in the replication of traffic flow and thus they have received considerable attention. This attention needs to be reflected upon at particular points in time. CF models are in a continuous state of improvement due to their significant role in traffic micro-simulations, intelligent transportation systems and safety engineering models. This paper presents a review of existing CF models. It classifies them into classic and artificial intelligence models. It discusses the capability of the models and potential limitations that need to be considered in their improvement. This paper also reviews the studies investigating the impacts of heavy vehicles in traffic stream and on CF behaviour. The findings of the study provide promising directions for future research and suggest revisiting the existing models to accommodate different behaviours of drivers in heterogeneous traffic, in particular, heavy vehicles in traffic.     

Random regret minimization or random utility maximization: an exploratory analysis in the context of automobile fuel choice

Interest in alternative behavioural paradigms to random utility maximization (RUM) has existed ever since the dominance of the RUM formulation. One alternative is known as random regret minimization (RRM), which suggests that when choosing between alternatives, decision makers aim to minimize anticipated regret. Although the idea of regret is not new, its incorporation into the same discrete choice framework of RUM is very recent. This paper is the first to apply the RRM‐model framework to model choice amongst durable goods. Specifically, we estimate and compare the RRM and RUM models in a stated choice context of choosing amongst vehicles fuelled with petrol, diesel and hybrid (associated with specific levels of fuel efficiency and engine capacity). The RRM model is found to achieve a marginally better fit (using a non‐nested test of differences) than its equally parsimonious RUM counterpart. As a second contribution, we derive a formulation for regret‐based elasticities and compare utility‐based and regret‐based elasticities in the context of stated vehicle type choices. We find that in the context of our choice data, mean estimates of elasticities are different for many of the attributes and alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors that affect the ability of people with disabilities to walk or wheel to destinations in their community: a scoping review

ABSTRACT

It is essential that the pedestrian environment accommodates all users so they can participate in everything the community has to offer. However, people with disabilities (PWDs) often find it difficult to navigate this environment because of physical and social accessibility factors. While we know a great deal about which factors act as barriers and facilitators to mobility, we do not know enough about how they influence navigation (i.e. planning a route, en route decisions, and route learning) or how they can be improved. A scoping review was conducted to identify these factors, assess their implications, and suggest future directions. In total, 3394 studies were found and screened, 163 full-text articles were reviewed, and 37 articles met the inclusion criteria for the final review. These studies focused on those with visual impairments, navigating crosswalks, and the cognitive elements of navigation. Future research is needed that includes more types of disabilities, considers the navigational process from planning to arrival, and evaluates interventions.     

货车车轮设计

阐述了对车轮设计的改进,能对车轮的可靠性和使用寿命产生重要的影响。     

Application of perceived value model to identify factors affecting passengers' repurchase intentions on city bus: A case of the Taipei metropolitan area

This paper establishes and tests the perceived value model, which is applied to identify the factors affecting the passengers' repurchase intentions on city bus. In this study, perceived value is a trade-off between perceived benefits and perceived costs. And the main part of perceived benefits is service quality. We (1) measured service quality using a multiple-items scale, (2) integrated perceived non-monetary price as a part of perceived costs, and (3) simultaneously incorporated the attractiveness of alternative modes. Data was collected via a questionnaire survey in the Taipei metropolitan area and the model was tested using path analysis performed by LISREL. The results indicate that all causal relationships are statistical significant. Finally, this study concludes by discussing managerial implications and making suggestions for future research.