Mixed RP/SP models incorporating interaction effects

In order to analyse the impact of a new train service in Cagliari (Italy) a databank including information from a revealed preference (RP) and a stated preference (SP) survey was set up. The RP data concern choice between car, bus and train; the SP data consider the binary choice between a new train service (quicker, more frequent, with a lower fare and more stations than the current one) and the alternative currently chosen by car and bus users. Logit models allowing for correlation among RP alternatives were estimated for this mixed RP/SP data set using the artificial tree structure method. The analysis included level-of-service variables measured with an unusually high level of precision, latent or second order variables (such as comfort), inertia and interaction variables. Different specifications of the utility function were tested, including the expenditure rate model, and the effects of these specifications on modelling results are highlighted. Our results show that for a population mainly composed of fixed income workers, the expenditure rate model is superior to the traditional wage rate model, yielding lower and more significant subjective values of time. Moreover, we found that the non-linear specifications appear to be more suitable as not only better model results were obtained, but also the real distribution of the error terms was revealed (i.e. highlighting correlation among public transport options).     

Coastal Crisis: The Failure of Coastal Management in the Spanish Mediterranean Region

It is a fact that coastal zones in the Mediterranean are becoming progressively more seriously degraded. Instrumental to the phenomenon in Spain is the evident failure of the coastal management that the institutions have pursued for over three decades, both under the old, state-centralized model, and the new organizational model with the political division of land into autonomous regions. This failure can in part be explained not only by the inadequate tools the administration possesses to address the dynamism and complexity of the new economic activities that have sprung up along the coast, but also by incoherent sectoral policies. Finally, there has been no all-encompassing political strategy capable of dealing with coastal communities' demands for development and the need for the protection of ecosystems and their natural resources. All this has resulted not only in a deterioration of the area, but also in the discrediting of actions implemented by the institutions, and their plans and programs being perceived as an obstacle to economic development.     

A decision analysis framework for intermodal transport: Comparing fuel price increases and the internalisation of external costs

This paper presents the impact of fuel price increases on the market area of intermodal transport terminals. Aim of this research is to determine whether an increase in fuel prices is sufficient enough to raise the market area of intermodal transport to the same degree that would be accomplished by stimulating intermodal transport through policy instruments. Therefore, several fuel price scenarios are analysed in order to verify the impact of different fuel price evolutions on the market area of unimodal road transport compared to intermodal transport in Belgium. The LAMBIT-model (Location Analysis for Belgian Intermodal Terminals), which is a GIS-based model (Macharis and Pekin, 2008), is used to analyse the different fuel price increases and enables a visualisation of the impact on the market area. The LAMBIT model incorporates the different network layers for each transport mode by setting up a GIS network that includes four different layers: the road network, the rail network, the inland waterways network and the final haulage network. The geographic locations of the intermodal terminals and the port of Antwerp are added as nodes in the network and the Belgian municipality centres are defined and connected to the different network layers. Based on the different fuel price scenarios representing respectively a fuel price increase with 10% (low price case), 50% (business as usual case) and 90% (high price case), the results of the LAMBIT model show that the market areas rise in favour of intermodal barge/road and intermodal rail/road. Depending on the scenario, the degree of modal shift however differs. Additionally, in order to compare policy measures with the effect of a fuel price increase, the internalisation of the external costs is analysed with the LAMBIT model. For some years, the European Commission is supporting the idea that transportation costs should reflect the true impacts on environment and society, and is relentlessly pushing towards the so called ‘internalisation of external costs’ as a policy instrument in order to establish fair and efficient pricing of different transport modes. This requires monetarizing the external effects of transport and adding them to the already internalized costs in order to give the correct price signals. Results of this comparative analysis performed with the LAMBIT model are also presented in this paper.     

Accessibility appraisal of land-use/transport policy strategies: More than just adding up travel-time savings

We examine the accessibility benefits associated with some land-use policy strategies for the Netherlands that anticipate on expected climate change. A disaggregate logsum accessibility measure using the Dutch national land-use/transport interaction model TIGRIS XL is used to compute changes in consumer surplus. The measure provides an elegant and convenient solution to measure the full accessibility benefits from land-use and/or transport policies, when discrete choice travel-demand models are available that already produce logsums. It accounts for both changes in generalised transport costs and changes in destination utility, and is thus capable of providing the accessibility benefits from changes in the distribution of activities, due to transport or land-use policies. The case study shows that logsum accessibility benefits from land-use policy strategies can be quite large compared to investment programmes for road and public transport infrastructure, largely due to changes in trip production and destination utility, which are not measured in the standard rule-of-half benefit measure.     

Using structural equations modeling to unravel the influence of land use patterns on travel behavior of workers in Montreal

This paper addresses the relations between travel behavior and land use patterns using a Structural Equations Modeling (SEM) framework. The proposed model structure draws on two earlier models developed for Lisbon and Seattle which show significant effects of land use patterns on travel behavior. The travel behavior variables included here are multifaceted including commuting distance, car ownership, the amount of mobility by mode (car, transit and non-motorized modes), both in terms of total kilometers travelled and number of trips. The model also includes a travel scheduling variable, which is the total time spent between the first and last trips to reflect daily constraints in time allocation and travel.The modeled land use variables measure the levels of urban concentration and density, diversity, both in terms of types of uses and the mix between jobs and inhabitants/residents, the transport supply levels, transit and road infrastructure, and accessibility indicators. The land use patterns are described both at the residence and employment zones of each individual included in the model by using a factor analysis technique as a data reduction and multicollinearity elimination technique. In order to explicitly account for self selection bias the land use variables are explicitly modeled as functions of socioeconomic attributes of individuals and their households.The results obtained show that people with different socioeconomic characteristics tend to work and live in places of substantially different urban environments. But besides these socioeconomic self-selection effects, land use variables significantly affect travel behavior. More precisely the effects of land use are in great part passed thru variables describing long term decisions like commuting distance, and car ownership. These results point to similar conclusions from the models developed for Lisbon and Seattle and thus give weight to the use of land use policies as tools for changing travel behavior.     

Determinants of Indian sub-continent officer–seafarer retention in the shipping industry

The retention of officer–seafarers within the international shipping industry is a difficult problem facing shipping and ship management companies. One strategic option open to all companies that should improve overall retention is to seek to become an employer of choice by providing an intellectual capital environment attractive to officer–seafarers. This is investigated through a survey of officer–seafarers covering areas where ship management can exercise some control over their working conditions. These cover recognition by their employer and commensurate rewards, organizational culture and structure and building relationships with external parties. Experienced Indian sub-continent officer–seafarers were the sample population resulting in more than 200 valid completions. These were analysed using correlation and regression. Although all hypotheses were in the predicted direction, only four passed the significance test: long-term career prospects, a smooth and fair recruitment process, a better relationship with maritime authorities and an employee-friendly organizational culture. Stepwise regression indicated that only organizational culture had a significant positive effect on intention to remain a seafarer. The items in the organizational culture construct accord with recommendations from the literature on becoming an employer of choice and improving employee retention, providing guidance for attracting and retaining officers.     

Do mergers and alliances influence European shipping and port competition?

In Europe, ports are confronted with a closer integration in the maritime and shipping industries. The co-operation agreements can take several forms such as alliances and mergers among shipping lines, conferences, involvement of shipping companies in terminal management, and extending interests in inland transport of shipping companies. In this paper we give a brief overview of these different types of agreement and we examine the consequences of this evolution of the market structures in which ports and shipping companies have to operate. More specifically, attention goes to the competitive position of the port in this new environment. It is clear that the role of the port and the port authorities has to be redefined to guarantee that it remains a fully fledged player in this fast evolving integrated market.     

Semi-Active Attitude and Vibration Control

The paper discusses the attitude and vibration control of a passenger car on the basis of a full vehicle model. The analysis presented consists of two parts: (I) The introduction of a newly developed semi-active anti-roll/pitch system, (ii) An example of an actively suspended full vehicle model using a simple control strategy to improve ride comfort. The attitude control using semi-actively generated compensation forces prevents the car from rolling in curves and pitching during braking or accelerating. The strength of the system is the small energy consumption. The performance of the combination of both attitude and vibration control can compete with a fully active suspension system.     

Structural design of process decks for floating production, storage and offloading units

This work analyzes the influence of ship motion and deformation on the structural design of decks to support production plants in floating production, storage and offloading units (FPSOs). These decks are space frames with lengths ranging from 30 to 100 mr, with a variable number of rigid supports linked to the ship hull. The deck and ship hull are modeled together for naval and structural analysis. A global, coupled analysis is performed considering the deck and ship structures; sea loads are evaluated by means of probabilistic methods.