Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology offering several benefits to the society and causing significant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an effort to quantify the effect of different drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation diffusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes influence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are influential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more influenced by word of mouth.     

Development of knowledge based body structure concept design model

The purpose of this study is to propose a concept design process for an automotive body structure using technical information on the major joints and members of vehicles. First, in order to collect the technical information on major joints and members, 17 vehicles were selected using benchmark data. The collected technical information for the selected vehicles was the cross sectional shapes of each joint and member which were used for the analysis of joint stiffness, crashworthiness and static stiffness of the member to make a database along with cross section properties. This study applied a ‘What If Study’ technique to perform a concept design of an automotive body using the analyzed information and selected cross section meeting the design objectives. The criteria for the selection of the cross section were defined by subdividing the defined design objectives of an automotive body structure and constraints into members and joints. In order to configure an analysis model of an automotive body structure using the selected cross section, a shape parametric model was used and static stiffness, dynamic stiffness and crashworthiness were assessed to evaluate the configured automotive body structure. The evaluation result showed that the crashworthiness and static/dynamic stiffness were improved compared to an existing body structure. In addition, the weight of the body structure was reduced. Through this study, the process that can rapidly and effectively derive and evaluate the concept design of an automotive body structure was defined. It is expected that, henceforth, this process will be helpful for the study of automotive body structures.     

Coupled heat and mass transfer analysis of NH<Subscript>3</Subscript>-H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O falling film absorption on inner tube surface with low solution flow rates

NH₃-H₂O falling film absorption usually takes place with low solution flow rate in real absorption refrigeration system. An experimental study of inner vertical absorption is carried out for the consideration of air-cooling absorber. Variable working conditions are tested to evaluate the heat and mass transfer performances.The traditional evaluation method based on log-mean-temperature（concentration） difference is criticized for its lack of theoretical basis while simultaneous heat and mass transfer process occurs. A new method proposed by Kim and Infante Ferreira is modified to evaluate the experimental results with reasonable assumptions. The method is based on the derivation of coupled heat and mass transfer differential equations of NH₃-H₂O absorption process.The analysis of the same experimental data shows that the new method realizes better consistency with smaller error, especially in heat transfer aspect. Heat and mass transfer performance is enhanced with the increase of solution Reynolds number. Sub-cooling of inlet weak solution also has positive influence on the absorption process,which should be evaluated by the new method correctly. Two correlations are developed to evaluate both Nusselt and Sherwood numbers for the design of air-cooling absorber.     

Fault diagnosis for wind turbine based on improved extreme learning machine

A fault diagnosis method based on improved extreme learning machine (IELM) is proposed to solve the weakness (weak generalization ability, low diagnostic rate) of traditional fault diagnosis with feedforward neural network algorithm. This method fuses signal feature vectors, extracts six parameters as the principal component analysis (PCA) variables, and calculates correlation coefficient matrix among the variables. The weight values of control parameters in the extreme learning model are dynamically adjusted according to the test samples’ constantly changing. Consequently, the weight fixed drawback in the original model can be remedied. A fault simulation experiment platform for wind turbine drive system is built, eight kinds of fault modes are diagnosed by the improved extreme learning model, and the result is compared with that of other machine learning methods. The experiment indicates that the method can enhance the accuracy and generalization ability of diagnosis, and increase the computing speed. It is convenient for engineering application.     

Techno-economic study of LNG diesel power (dual fuel) ship

This article mainly proposed three technically effective alternatives to comply with the emission control regulations and laws in shipping. Liquefied natural gas (LNG)-diesel dual fuel power technology was introduced through feasibility study on several aspects including research development, retrofitting methods, vessel type, safety issues, and other technical characteristics. Based on sample ship and route, economic evaluation was conducted on these three alternatives. Cost-effectiveness of each project was detailed in the calculation of net present value (NPV) and payback time via discount cash flow method. The findings show that LNG-diesel dual fuel power technology performs best among three alternatives. Due to the impact of fuel price, two scenarios were carried out in sensitivity analysis which witnessed a variation of NPV with the fluctuation of fuel price. Further study shows the turning point between project (i) and project (iii) with different discount rate and the interaction between discount rate and fuel price, left project (ii) the least cost-effective solution in three alternatives.     

Brittleness analysis and important nodes discovery in large time-evolving complex networks

The brittleness analysis and important nodes detection have been a hot spot in the complex networks. How to get the overall feature of the whole network and how to find out some important nodes are requisites to solve these problems. In this paper, we adopt the trace of the adjacency matrix and the centrality of the complex networks to give a quantitative and qualitative analysis of networks being studied. Results show that the k-shell plays a more important role than the degree centrality and the betweenness in finding important nodes, and it can also be used to give direction on the immunization and maintenance of complex networks.     

Long-term tracking based on spatio-temporal context

Aiming at the problem that the fast tracking algorithm using spatio-temporal context (STC) will inevitably lead to drift and even lose the target in long-term tracking, a new algorithm based on spatio-temporal context that integrates long-term tracking with detecting is proposed in this paper. We track the target by the fast tracking algorithm, and the cascaded search strategy is introduced to the detecting part to relocate the target if the fast tracking fails. To a large extent, the proposed algorithm effectively improves the accuracy and stability of long-term tracking. Extensive experimental results on benchmark datasets show that the proposed algorithm can accurately track and relocate the target though the target is partially or completely occluded or reappears after being out of the scene.     

Poisson noise removal based on nonlocal total variation with Euler’s elastica pre-processing

An enhancement-based Poisson denoising method for photon-limited images is presented. The noisy image is firstly pre-processed for enhancing incomplete object information, and then it is denoised while preserving the restored structural details. A variational regularization model based on Euler’s elastica (EE) is proposed for image enhancement pre-processing. A nonlocal total variation (NLTV) regularization model is then employed in the second stage of image denoising. The above two optimization problems are solved by the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). For Poissonian images with low image peak values, experiments demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the proposed method for both restoring geometric structure and removing noise.     

Mathematical model validated by a crash test for studying the occupant’s kinematics and dynamics in a cars’ frontal collision

The aim of the paper was to determine the kinematic parameters that influence the occupant injury risk through a mathematical model. The developed model is a 2D model composed of 4 bodies (2 vehicles, thorax and head). The head and thorax are interconnected with a rotation joint and a torsion spring meant to stiffen the relative movement between the bodies. The thorax is connected with the vehicle body by a linear spring meant to simulate the seatbelt stiffness. The model was solved using Lagrange principle and the validation of the model was made through a crash test performed using the same initial conditions and comparing the obtained values of the displacement, velocity and acceleration parameters with the ones obtained with the mathematical model. The head and torso were chosen due to the fact that they are the common parts of the body that get injured, especially the head with the change of 80 % to cause fatal injury in car’s frontal collision. Once the model was validated, the stiffness of the seatbelt was modified in order to determine the behavior of the occupant in case of car frontal collisions. When the seatbelt stiffness was reduced, the occupant displacement and velocity increased, while by increasing the stiffness, these parameters decreased. The values of the developed model presented a high degree of similarity with the results obtained from the crash test with an error of 10 %. This model can be used by engineers to easily asses the occupant injury risk in case of vehicle frontal collisions.     

Application of the reverse 3D scanning method to evaluate the wear of forging tools divided on two selected areas

This study is focused on tools used in the industrial hot forging process of a front wheel forging (eventually–gear wheel) manufactured for the automotive industry. Four different variants were applied for the tools: 2 die inserts were coated with two different hybrid layers (GN + PVD type), i.e. AlCrTiN and AlCrTiSiN, one insert was only nitrided, and one was pad welded, to improve tool durability. The tool wear was analysed and represented by the material degradation on the working surface, based on the 3D scanning and the material growth of the periodically collected forgings. Additionally, the scanned tools were divided into two areas, in which it was found, based on the reliminary analysis, that various degradation mechanisms are predominant. Microstructural and hardness measurements of the analyzed tools were also performed. Based on the results, it was found that, in the central part of the die insert (area A), thermo-mechanical fatigue and wear occurred, while in the area of the bridge insert (area B), only abrasive wear could be observed. For these areas (A and B), the loss of material was determined separately. In area A for the inserts with hybrid layer GN+AlCrTiSiN and gas nitrided, an intensive increase of wear took place, which was not observed for the pad welded and GN+AlCrTiN layer insert, for which, together with the increase of the forging number, a proportional growth of the loss of material occurred. In area B the weakest results were obtained for the insert with GN+AlCrTiSiN layer, while wear of other die inserts grew similar and proportional.