An analysis of destination choice for opaque airline products using multidimensional binary logit models

We investigate how customers respond to an opaque airline product offered by a European carrier. In this opaque product design, customers are randomly assigned to travel to one of approximately ten destinations; however, for a fee they may exclude one or more destinations from the choice set (or a particular package design) prior to learning which destination they will travel to. We use a multidimensional binary logit model to predict the probability that one or more alternatives will be chosen by a customer. Results show that customers are more likely to pay to exclude destinations located close to the origin airport and destinations that speak the same language as the origin airport. Length of stay, cost of living at the destination, and measures of destination attractiveness are also found to be significant predictors for some package designs. Based on these findings, we offer general recommendations for how to design opaque packages for airline customers.     

Fault diagnosis for singular stochastic systems

This paper studies the fault diagnosis of singular stochastic systems. The probability distribution of output is measured by probability density functions (PDFs), which are modeled by a square root B-spline expansion. An adaptive nonlinear observer is proposed to estimate the size of the fault occurring in systems. Furthermore, the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach is applied to establish sufficient conditions for the existence of the observer. Finally, the simulation results are given to indicate the method for diagnosing the fault.     

A Sociological Approach to Maritime Studies: A Statement and Example

This paper is an attempt to illustrate the stance of the Soviet Union in the law of the sea debate in the light of Soviet ocean activities. The paper has two sections. First, it examines the range of Soviet ocean activities. The considerable extent of Soviet ocean use underscores the importance which the Soviet Union places on the law of the sea debate and its consequent active participation in the process of international negotiation. Second, the paper considers the published record of the Soviet Union in the United Nations seabed debate. In seven years of debate the United Nations General Assembly and the Ad Hoc and permanent Seabed Commities and sub-Commities have generated a considerable body of documantation reflecting the public policy of over one hundred States concerning the law of the sea. Soviet expressions of opinion alone cover more than five hundred pages of documentation. Specific Soviet positions can be considered within two ganeral preferences: the protection of traditional freedoms of the high seas and opposition to ocean control by either coastal States or by an independent international ocean authority. The paper shows how these preferences and the specific Soviet negotiating positions defend and promote the maritime interests of the Soviet Union.     

Sub‐optimal decision‐making and the transportation problem

A modification to the transportation problem is outlined that aims to improve the quality of predictions of trip matrices, and at the same time, allow some behavioural and economic insights. A framework is suggested within which this modification may be made and a suitable statistic and iterative process are described. A simple example demonstrates the validity of the modification and suggests some areas of difficulty with the approach.     

Local Level Fisheries Management in Diani-Chale,Kenya: Current Status and Future Directions

The current regime of fisheries management and the prospects for attaining a more locally oriented, collaborative system of fisheries management in Diani-Chale, Kenya are examined. At present fisheries management in Diani-Chale is characterized by diminished government capacity for regulation, weakened local institutions, and little ability to exert control over the use of fisheries. Local level management requires the development and use of local institutions that can govern the use of fishery resources. The fish landing sites used by fishers and their associated fishing grounds were identified to be at the appropriate level for resolving fishery management issues. A more formal role for these entities, the clarification of fishing ground tenure and access rights, and support for the development and enforcement of local fishing rules can further local management. The socioeconomic condition of fishers, their fear of losing landing sites, and the continued perception of the imposition of a marine reserve pose barriers to initiatives seeking to further local level management.     

Some Difficulties inherent in applying Congestion Theory to Marine Problems

This paper sets out to evaluate the main areas of focus within maritime sociology and to link more closely than hitherto the various substantive discussions with general theoretical and conceptual approaches. More specifically, it suggests directions in which maritime sociology may be advanced at both empirical and conceptual levels in the future.     

Simulation model for the analysis of complex traffic weaving problems

A simulation modeling approach has been developed to analyze a complex traffic weaving problem. It is presented, discussed, and demonstrated on an actual dual purpose weaving area that is closely followed by an entrance‐exit junction. Specifically, the model identifies problem areas in the system, assists the traffic engineer in the formulation of feasible solution strategies, and analyzes the effectiveness of alternative strategies. The simulation model is not presented as a panacea to weaving analysis rather as an interesting and unique approach that has the potential to analyze a wide variety of weaving patterns. The primary conclusion of the paper is that the model can be a valuable tool for analysis of certain types of traffic congestion problems.     

Community Perspectives Toward a Marine Reserve: A Case Study of San Felipe,Yucatán,México

San Felipe marine reserve, in Yucatán, México, is unique, and particularly suited for a case study because the local community created it without a mandate from higher levels of government. This article presents the results of a survey of local interest groups using the method of paired comparisons and rank correlation analysis, to reveal local judgments about the severity of damages to coastal habitats and the level of impacts of activities that cause the damages. The results show that fishers differ significantly from other interest groups in their rankings of the severity of damages to habitats and of impacting activities. These findings suggest that despite the overlapping interests in protecting the resources and the critical habitats, the different perspectives of local interest groups about the severity of damages must be considered in the management of San Felipe marine reserve.     

Traffic integration and environmental traffic management in Denmark

This paper assesses Danish experience in attempting to integrate traffic with its surroundings in existing areas. Rest and play areas, quiet roads with a 30 km/h speed limit, and major road schemes on urban shopping streets and through villages are all discussed; so too are policies seeking to create safe routes to school, the problems arising from the introduction of speed reduction measures on bus routes, and the merits of area‐wide as opposed to incremental approaches. Evaluations indicate that speed reductions to a maximum of 30 km/h are achievable on local roads, and that the quiet street approach represents a cost‐effective and popular means of achieving environmental improvements and safer, more liveable streets for residents. It is recommended as an appropriate model for Britain to follow. Incremental implementation risks being sub‐optimal in design terms but has distinct advantages in minimizing conflicts and enabling rapid implementation. Evaluations of shopping street and village schemes are incomplete but speed reductions and environmental gains have undoubtedly been achieved.