A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

Development and Deployment of Public Transport Policy and Planning in Taiwan

Over the past decade, the escalating roadway congestion and environmental deterioration due to heavy use of private vehicles have provoked the Taiwan government to realize the importance of public transport systems. Under the “carrot-and-stick” rationales, the government has formulated public transport policies and exercised a series of related initiatives by providing sufficient and higher quality of public transport services so as to attract more private vehicle users. In this paper, the planning philosophy and policy formulation of Taiwan’s public transport development are highlighted. The most important initiatives, including the Five-year Enhancement of Mass Transportation Program and the upgrading public transport schemes in the National Development Plan are examined. Based on previous experience and lessons, we point out the most challenging issues that the government will encounter. Suggestions for the future of public transport planning are also addressed.     

Analysis of Driver's Decelerating Strategy in a Car-following Situation

This report describes a decelerating driver-model expressed by driving mode transition in car-following situations. The assumptions for constructing the model are that decelerating strategy of a driver is classified into several simple driving modes and that a driver changs his driving modes based on his perceptible characteristics and experiential rules. Deceleration action is divided into three states; following, standing and braking, which are applied to the model. The model has two paths for driver's decelerating action, one of which is selected by the driver based on the perceptible characteristics and experiential rules. The suitability of the model has been experimentally verified.     

陕县涧里水库大坝结构稳定分析

本文主要从水库大坝的结构安全出发,依据有关现行规范规定和大坝安全评价分类标准,对涧里水库大坝上、下游抗滑稳定性和结构安全性进行了综合评价。根据目前工程现状,涧里水库大坝上、下游坝坡抗滑稳定性整体上均满足规范要求,但是,溢洪道未按设计要求完成,溢洪道右岸0 110～0 132段挡水墙高度不够,结构单薄,不满足抗倾稳定要求,且防浪墙、放水管裂缝影响坝体结构完整性。因此,涧里水库大坝结构稳定性为C级。     

Coupled transport-reaction pathways and distribution patterns between siliciclastic-carbonate sediments at the Ria de Vigo

This paper examines the linkages between the space-distribution of grain sizes and the relative percentage of the amount of mineral species that result from the mixing process of siliciclastic and carbonate sediments at the Ria de Vigo (NW of Spain).The space-distribution of minerals was initially determined, starting from a detailed mineralogical study based on XRD-Rietveld analysis of the superficial sediments. Correlations between the maps obtained for grain sizes, average fractions of either siliciclastic or carbonates, as well as for individual-minerals, were further stabilised. From this analysis, spatially organized patterns were found between carbonates and several minerals involved in the siliciclastic fraction. In particular, a coupled behaviour is observed between plagioclases and carbonates, in terms of their relative percentage amounts and the grain size distribution.In order to explain these results a conceptual model is proposed, based on the interplay between chemical processes at the seawater–sediment interface and hydrodynamical factors. This model suggests the existence of chemical control mechanisms that, by selective processes of dissolution-crystallization, constrain the mixed environment's long-term evolution, inducing the formation of self-organized sedimentary patterns.     

公路建设项目法人激励模型研究

项目法人在公路项目建设中起着举足轻重的作用 ,其经营水平、工作绩效的高低直接关系到项目建设期三大控制目标的实现和企业的长远发展。利用委托～代理激励理论研究了项目法人制下的项目经营者激励模型 ,以期促进和完善现代项目企业制度 ,提高项目经营者自身及企业经济效益水平。     

Effect of fatigue strain range on properties of high-strength structural steel

Ship hulls are built with stiffened steel plates and experience continuous fatigue load cycles when in service. Mechanical properties of the steel are expected to change due to the application of these cyclic loads. Therefore, the mechanical properties of the material at various levels of fatigue damage need to be understood. This paper presents two test series that were conducted to determine the effect of two different strain ranges (2000 and 3000 micro strains) of fatigue cycles on the mechanical properties of high-strength structural steel. The test results indicate that the cycle-dependent behaviours of the material can cause a slight increase or a significant decrease in the yield strength when compared to its virgin state. However, the ductility of the steel does not change much as the strain cycle increases.     

Reliability assessment of maintained ship hulls with correlated corroded elements

This paper reviews the factors that affect the corrosion rate of the ship hull girder. It is shown that corrosion rates vary as a function of the location of the element in the structure, of the ocean area and type of ballast tank and steel. However, the corrosion rate in elements that are subjected to similar conditions is highly correlated.

A time-variant formulation is proposed including the correlation between the corrosion rates in neighbouring elements in modelling the degrading effect that corrosion has on the reliability of ship hulls. The effect of corrosion is represented as a time-dependent decrease of plate thickness that affects the midship section modulus. One repair policy was considered and the example results show the effect of plate replacement when its thickness reaches 75% of the original value. The results also illustrate how the limit value of the thickness in the repair criteria influences the reliability and the decision about repair actions. This is also shown for the effect of different corrosion rates, inspection intervals, and allowable stresses.     

Acceleration noise and level of service of urban roads - A case study

Capacity measurement of roads under mixed traffic conditions as prevailing in India is ambiguous as it varies with time, composition of traffic and roadway encroachments. High incidence of slow moving vehicles and tricycles adds to the problem. Volume - capacity ratio appears to be an inadequate measure of defining level of service under mixed traffic situations. An attempt is made in this paper to explore the possibility of presenting unconventional parameters like standard deviation of speed, co-efficient of variation of speed and acceleration noise as possible measures of level of service. Tentative ranges of acceleration noise are proposed in association with flow and speed to explain level of service of urban roads catering to mixed traffic. The results are based on a study conducted in Madras, a major metropolitan city of India.     

Subsidy and public transit performance: A factor analytic approach

The need to measure and evaluate transit system performance has led to the development of numerous performance indicators. However, depending upon the indicator, we oftentimes reach different conclusions regarding transit system performance. The research reported in this paper uses factor analytic methods to generate a set of underlying attributes (factors) that capture the performance of public transit systems in Indiana. Similar to what is reported in the literature, this study finds three attributes that best describe transit system performance: efficiency, effectiveness, and overall performance. Based upon systemsÕ factor scores, the study finds that systems scoring highly on one attribute generally perform well on the remaining attributes. Further, there is an inverse relationship between system performance and subsidies, a finding that supports performance based subsidy allocations.