Why are work travel plans effective? Comparing conclusions from narrative and meta-analytical research synthesis

Reliable research synthesis is of high significance for a transport policy which tries to base its decisions on available empirical evidence. There is growing doubt whether the frequently used narrative approach provides a scientifically defensible way of synthesising a body of quantitative research results. The present paper demonstrates meta-analysis as a more objective and powerful alternative for this task. For this purpose evaluation data synthesised in two earlier narrative reviews on the effectiveness of work travel plans [Cairns et al. Making travel plans work: research report (former), Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions (DTLR), London, 2002; Smarter choices—changing the way we travel. (Final report of the research project: The influence of soft factor interventions on travel demand. Research report for the Department for Transport.) London. Retrieved 1 December 2005, from , 2004] are meta-analytically re-analysed and compared with the conclusions drawn from the narrative synthesis of these data. Our meta-analyis provides only limited support for the conclusion that addressing parking is the hallmark of successful work travel plans. Our meta-analysis indicates that site and organisational factors as well as characteristics of the monitoring process are significant predictors of effective work travel plans, whereas Cairns et al. view little evidence for the impact of these factors.     

Guidelines for samplers: measuring a change in behaviour from before and after surveys

This paper addresses the issue of using before and after surveys to evaluate behavioural changes in response to transport policies and investments, a procedure that, we argue is done far too rarely in this profession. Further, it demonstrates very clearly that, in almost all conceivable cases, there are considerable economies to be obtained by using a panel (again, under-utilised in our profession) to undertake evaluation, rather than successive independent cross-sectional surveys. The paper also addresses the critical issue of sample size requirements for measuring changes of a relatively small magnitude in travel behaviour; i.e., to state, with 95% confidence, that if there is a ∂ percent change in behaviour for the sample, there is a ∂ percent ± e percent change in the behaviour of the population, where e is the sampling error. In this paper, we present a method for calculating such sample size requirements from first principles and demonstrate the applicability both hypothetically and then empirically using data from the Puget Sound Transportation Panel. The formulation enables designers of before and after surveys to investigate the trade-offs between the statistical accuracy of their predictions and the sample size requirements systematically, without the need to specify ∂ a priori. This latter point is crucial, we argue, because we have limited information on ∂, yet, as we explain here, it drives the sample size requirements using alternative, well-cited approaches for calculating sample sizes to assess behavioural change. The results have important ramifications both for those implementing transport policies intended to produce behavioural change, especially when a cost-benefit evaluation of the policy is desired, and for those interpreting the results reported in previous studies.     

台湾海底隧道之接头与管段变化研析及对策

台湾唯一之海底隧道系采沉埋方式施工,该隧道不仅处于具高度盐份腐蚀之不利环境,且位于软弱地盘上.于营运二十余年后,轻微异状已有显现,如管段接头锈蚀、管体渗漏及管体裂损等异状.上述异状可能为接头构件变形、管体变位/变形及结构劣化等影响隧道安全之前兆,甚至降低其耐震能力;因该隧道肩负港区及区域经济发展之运输重任,如何藉由整体性体检进行安全评估及研订适当之维护补强对策,为计划执行重点;故本文将说明隧道接头、结构体等隧道重要构件之检测调查(如地球物理、钢筋腐蚀、裂缝深度、氯离子试验、防蚀电位、接头防水等项目)、数值分析及自动化监测(接缝计、单元沉陷仪、结构倾斜仪、电位计等)等综合评估结果及维护补强对策,以提供工程界日后参考.     

Climate change and the future Maritime Policy for the EU

A cross-cutting Maritime Policy can ensure that climate change threats and challenges in regards to seas and oceans are dealt with in a wide policy framework that takes into account the impacts that climate change may have on other sectors and vice versa.     

Basic design of a series propeller with vibration consideration by genetic algorithm

Genetic algorithms (GAs) can powerfully search for parameters in a large multidimensional design space. Thus, the principle can be applied to preliminary series propeller design problems with multiple considerations. In the present study, B-series propeller design was conducted using a GA for both hydrodynamic efficiency and vibration consideration. The objective function was set by users who could freely weight the relative importance of efficiency and vibration. GAs were successfully shown to be able to obtain an optimal set of parameters leading to efficient performance and low vibration.     

Comparing whole-link travel time models

In a model commonly used in dynamic traffic assignment the link travel time for a vehicle entering a link at time t is taken as a function of the number of vehicles on the link at time t. In an alternative recently introduced model, the travel time for a vehicle entering a link at time t is taken as a function of an estimate of the flow in the immediate neighbourhood of the vehicle, averaged over the time the vehicle is traversing the link. Here we compare the solutions obtained from these two models when applied to various inflow profiles. We also divide the link into segments, apply each model sequentially to the segments and again compare the results. As the number of segments is increased, the discretisation refined to the continuous limit, the solutions from the two models converge to the same solution, which is the solution of the Lighthill, Whitham, Richards (LWR) model for traffic flow. We illustrate the results for different travel time functions and patterns of inflows to the link. In the numerical examples the solutions from the second of the two models are closer to the limit solutions. We also show that the models converge even when the link segments are not homogeneous, and introduce a correction scheme in the second model to compensate for an approximation error, hence improving the approximation to the LWR model.     

A study of train dwelling time at the hong kong mass transit railway system

This paper investigates the relationship between the dwelling time of trains and the crowding situations at Mass Transit Railway (MTR) stations in Hong Kong. Regression models were established for the dwelling delays of trains due to congestion at stations, and a simulation model making use of the Monte-Carlo technique is developed to assess the reliability of the estimated train dwelling time. Therefore, the distribution and the confidence interval of the train dwelling time can be predicted on the basis of observed boarding and alighting distributions.     

Study on fast calibration of a ULA＇s gain and phase error

Array calibration is important in engineering practice. In this paper, fast calibration methods for a ULA＇s gain and phase errors both in far and near fields are proposed. In the far field, using a single sound source without exact orientation, this method horizontally rotates the array exactly once, performs eigen value decomposition for the covariance matrix of received data, then computes the gain and phase error according to the formulas. In the near field, using the same single sound source, it is necessary to rotate the array horizontally at most three times, build equations according to geometric relations, then solve them. Using the formula proposed in this paper, spherical waves are modified into plane waves. Then eigen values decomposition is performed. These two calibration methods were shown to be valid by simulation and are fast, accurate and easy to use. Finally, an analysis of factors influencing estimation precision is given.     

The foreign non-fuel cargo-traffic demand of the major British seaports in 1980 and 1985, a Markov Chain approach

Projections of the future traffic demand of British seaports are of great importance to port management bodies because of the huge capital investment required for installing modern port facilities. In this paper, the author uses a first order Markov Chain model to forecast the non-fuel cargo traffic demand of the major British seaports in 1980 and 1985.     

Developing Metro Systems in the People’s Republic of China: Policy and Gaps

Rapid urbanization has taken place in China since the Open Policy in 1978. In face of the growing demand for mobility in large cities, new metro systems were developed in large cities like Guangzhou and Shanghai. At present, there are seven cities with 10 metro lines under construction. What are the policy issues and major challenges of developing metro systems in China? This paper systematically reviews the current situation and highlights three major gaps that Chinese cities have to overcome in planning metro systems. They are the technology gap, the financing gap and the affordability gap. A discussion of these gaps in the Chinese context leads us to the conclusion that early planning and careful studies are important in the development of metro systems in China. Moreover, the existing official criteria (population and economic power) for approving the building of metro systems are insufficient and should be supplemented by more vigorous evaluation criteria.