A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This contribution reviews the different (mathematical) model formulations underlying these traffic simulation models used in evacuation studies and the behavioural assumptions that are made. The appropriateness of these behavioural assumptions is elaborated on in light of the current consensus on evacuation travel behaviour, based on the view from the social sciences as well as empirical studies on evacuation behaviour. The focus lies on how travellers’ decisions are predicted through simulation regarding the choice to evacuate, departure time choice, destination choice, and route choice. For the evacuation participation and departure time choice we argue in favour of the simultaneous approach to dynamic evacuation demand prediction using the repeated binary logit model. For the destination choice we show how further research is needed to generalize the current preliminary findings on the location-type specific destination choice models. For the evacuation route choice we argue in favour of hybrid route choice models that enable both following instructed routes and en-route switches. Within each of these discussions, we point at current limitations and make corresponding suggestions on promising future research directions.     

Advances in population synthesis: fitting many attributes per agent and fitting to household and person margins simultaneously

Agent-based microsimulation models of transportation, land use or other socioeconomic processes require an initial synthetic population derived from census data, conventionally created using the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure. This paper introduces a novel computational method that allows the synthesis of many more attributes and finer attribute categories than previous approaches, both of which are long-standing limitations discussed in the literature. Additionally, a new approach is used to fit household and person zonal attribute distributions simultaneously. This technique was first adopted to address limitations specific to Canadian census data, but could also be useful in U.S. and other applications. The results of each new method are evaluated empirically in terms of goodness-of-fit.     

A bi-objective cyclist route choice model

It is widely acknowledged that cyclists choose their route differently to drivers of private vehicles. The route choice decision of commuter drivers is often modelled with one objective, to reduce their generalised travel cost, which is a monetary value representing the combined travel time and vehicle operating cost. Commuter cyclists, on the other hand, usually have multiple incommensurable objectives when choosing their route: the travel time and the suitability of a route. By suitability we mean non-subjective factors that characterise the suitability of a route for cycling, including safety, traffic volumes, traffic speeds, presence of bicycle lanes, whether the terrain is flat or hilly, etc. While these incommensurable objectives are difficult to be combined into a single objective, it is also important to take into account that each individual cyclist may prioritise differently between travel time and suitability when they choose a route.This paper proposes a novel model to determine the route choice set of commuter cyclists by formulating a bi-objective routing problem. The two objectives considered are travel time and suitability of a route for cycling. Rather than determining a single route for a cyclist, we determine a choice set of optimal alternative routes (efficient routes) from which a cyclist may select one according to their personal preference depending on their perception of travel time versus other route choice criteria considered in the suitability index. This method is then implemented in a case study in Auckland, New Zealand.The study provides a starting point for the trip assignment of cyclists, and with further research, the bi-objective routing model developed can be applied to create a complete travel demand forecast model for cycle trips. We also suggest the application of the developed methodology as an algorithm in an interactive route finder to suggest efficient route choices at different levels of suitability to cyclists and potential cyclists.     

Evaluating economic and environmental value of liner vessel sharing along the maritime silk road

The Belt and Road initiative is a novel exploration of China towards strategic collaboration with Eurasia countries to an extent of a larger scale with higher and deeper level of cooperation. To meet the growing global demand of transportation, increasing numbers of liner shipping companies collaborate and form alliances to share vessel capacity and reduce capital costs. Effective liner shipping vessel sharing is essential for the Belt and Road initiative in terms of building efficient maritime transport networks. In promoting environmental development, shipping companies are required to attain higher environmental standards. However, limited literature relates vessel sharing to environmental performance. This paper studies the impacts of liner vessel sharing from the economic and environmental perspectives. Two container allocation models are developed for the two scenarios: with and without vessel sharing. The carbon emissions in transportation are calculated under both scenarios. Numerical studies are carried out using services along the China-Indochina Peninsula Economic (CIPE) Corridor. Liner shipping companies could benefit from vessel sharing in terms of significant profit improvement. Vessel sharing could also benefit the environment by reducing the CO₂ emissions dramatically.     

The environmental costs and economic implications of container shipping on the Northern Sea Route

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) has tremendous potential for ocean shipping between Europe and Asia due to the savings from shorter transit time and distance. However, the Arctic area is environmentally vulnerable and thus there is a trade-off between NSR’s impacts on environment vs. its economic benefits, especially when compared with the traditional route, such as through the Suez Canal Route (SCR). This study estimates the market shares of different transport modes and alternative shipping routes for the container transport market between Europe and Asia, and the resulting environmental costs. Our result suggests that NSR can be a viable option under the status quo. However, its environmental costs tend to be higher than SCR due to small ship size and low load factor in the present, thus the development of NSR would lead to worse environment outcomes. If these issues can be resolved, NSR can benefit from lower operational and environmental costs, which will lead to higher market share and social welfare. Otherwise, increased use of NSR may lead to higher total environment costs than the status quo.     

Research trends and agenda on the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative with a focus on maritime transport

The ‘Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road’ (collectively known as Belt and Road, B&R) has been initiated by the Chinese government in 2013. The B&R is increasingly becoming a focal point for socio-economic–political interests because of its likely impact on land and sea transport and maritime logistics. The aims of this study were threefold: first, to provide an overview on the B&R, focusing on its key structural elements, such as transport corridors, city clusters, dry ports, infrastructure, zoning, and area development; second, to identify the expected impacts of the B&R on trade and implications on structural changes in transportation systems, port networks, and international logistics. Finally, to discuss major research trends and setting up of research agenda which will contribute to enriching the existing literature and shaping the global trade operations and drive economic growth in the context of the B&R.     

Empowering Stakeholders to Manage Stinging Jellyfish: A Perspective

A global challenge is dealing with the risk of envenomation by the stinging jellyfish. Those who are affected include: the people stung, tourist providers; diving and adventure operations, beach and park authorities, life guards, commercial marine operators as well as local and centralized government; we focus on tourism. There is a diversity of jellyfish that pose a risk and they vary greatly in their ecology. Here, we propose five eco-groups of jellyfish to assist in prioritizing estimates of the risks to a broad clientele. Eco-groups are: (1) “Pulse species” that impact on beaches for short well-defined periods; (2) “Shelf-wide species;” (3) “Nearshore species;” (4) “Drifter species” and (5) “Deep sea species.” Great spatial variation and strong seasonality in the occurrence and abundance of jellyfish is the rule, rather than the exception, and this indicates that local knowledge and preventative action is the key to reducing the risk of envenomation. Managers can take control by getting involved in: predicting risk, detecting the presence of jellyfish and advising on/or providing barriers and protection, first responses and treatment of sting victims. Good communication and record keeping is critical within the stakeholder chain.     

Measuring the completeness of complete streets

A tool for measuring the “completeness” of a complete street has applications in developing policy, prioritising areas for infrastructure investment for a network, and solving the right-of-way allocation problem for individual streets. A literature review was conducted on the state-of-art in the assessment complete street designs. Complete streets assessment requires a context-sensitive approach, thus context-sensitive standards of “completeness” must first be established by combining a street classification system with sets of priorities and target performance levels for the different types of streets. Performance standards should address a street’s fulfilment of the movement, environmental, and place functions, and be flexible enough to account for the many ways that these functions of a street can be fulfilled. Most frameworks reviewed are unsuitable for evaluating complete streets because, with few exceptions, they guide street design by specifying the design elements for inclusion on the street. Secondly, the performance of a street can be assessed according to transportation, environmental, and place criteria, and compared to the target performance levels specified by the street’s classification. As there are many different impacts to consider on a street, additional work is required to define the priorities and performance objectives for different types of streets.     

Impact of biometric and anthropometric characteristics of passengers on aircraft safety and performance

Demand for commercial air travel has been increasing over the years and recent forecasts indicate similar future trends. New aircraft with enhanced design features are being built and entering the airline service globally. These enhancements aim to ensure continued safety, efficiency, performance and prolonged life serviceability. However, these new enhancements often neglect the impact of the changing anthropometric characteristics of the passenger. Past studies have identified increasing trends in the average weight, height and other anthropometrical and biometrical measures of people at a global scale. However, many are limited to only exploring the ramifications primarily from the perspective of passenger experience. This paper highlights the importance of considering passengers’ anthropometric characteristics from a holistic perspective and identifies gaps for future research.     

Mechanical Behaviors and Design Parameters of Segmental Tunnel Linings with New Type of Joints北大核心CSCD

Segmental linings in shield tunnelling are composed of segments and joints. Mechanical behaviors of the joints govern overall behaviors of tunnel linings. Two new types of joints are adopted in Shanghai Metro Line 18, including the fast-insertion joints for adjacent rings, and the fast-slide joints for adjacent segments. In order to explore the overall behavior of segmental linings with these new types of joints, the full-scale tests are carried out for new lining structure with aligned and staggered longitudinal joints. The mechanical behaviors of the tunnel linings under different loading conditions are obtained. Furthermore, the calculation models of the tunnel linings are discussed, and regarding the modified routine method, the structural design parameters under different loading conditions are calculated, which provides a reference for the design and the comparison of the assembly method of the tunnel linings with new types of joints. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.