Uncertainty in the context of highway appraisal

Transport planning is based on traffic forecasts which are subject to great uncertainties. These uncertainties have generally been ignored or, at least, not explicitly included in the planning process. This paper describes the principles behind the estimation of the uncertainty (or range of error) of the forecasts of a traffic model and discusses the means by which this information can be absorbed into the decision-making in transport planning projects. These principles have been applied to the appraisal of a British highway project and throughout the paper reference is made to this project in order to illustrate the results of the practical application of an explicit treatment of uncertainty. It is believed that this approach can and should be developed for application in most areas of transport planning, leading inevitably to an improvement in the quality of the decisions taken.     

Combining Lanekeeping and Vehicle Following with Hazard Maps

This paper addresses the issues involved with including moving obstacles in a hazard map or potential field framework for driver assistance systems. Under such a framework, control forces must consist of either conservative forces obtained from the gradient of a potential or artificial damping. By treating vehicle following as a combination of a safety distance and a hazard or potential function, common following strategies, such as constant time headway and guaranteed collision avoidance, can be incorporated into this framework without modification. When combining these fields with lateral potential fields for lanekeeping, however, challenges arise due to the natural asymmetry between the longitudinal and lateral velocity of a vehicle. For instance, a decision to change lanes while approaching a slow moving vehicle results in a large amount of undesirable energy transfer into the lateral dynamics. By treating the lateral and longitudinal hazards - described in road-fixed coordinates - as decoupled, however, such transfers can be eliminated. Because of the manner in which the lateral and longitudinal dynamics couple, control with decoupled hazard maps resembles the coupled case when following or lanekeeping while eliminating the problems associated with energy transfer. The paper concludes by discussing the characteristics of the dynamic equations that lead to this result and outlining future work in obtaining rigorous hazard bounds for the decoupled controller.     

Unloading facilities at an iron-ore terminal

In this paper a project undertaken by the author is described to illustrate modifications which may be necessary to the type of analysis given in an earlier paper [1] when difficulties arise from various practical considerations. The problem examined deals with the installation of unloading facilities at a purpose-built iron ore terminal at a steelworks. However, some of the data quoted has been coded to preserve confidentiality. The project was bedevilled by an unusual number of uncertainties; to appreciate these it is necessary to view them in relation to the situation existing at that time.     

The application of cost-benefit analysis to transport investment projects in Britain

This paper explains the need for the application of cost-benefit analysis to the evaluation of alternative projects for investment in the transport field and outlines briefly the historical development of the technique. The results of a comparative survey of a number of cost-benefit studies which have been carried out in Britain and some conclusions as to their thoroughness and comprehensiveness (or otherwise) are presented. The article concludes with a number of specific and detailed recommendations to remedy apparent methodological weaknesses. Six of these recommendations seem to merit particular attention:

1. The viewpoint of most studies should be extended so as to avoid confinement, for example, within an arbitrary local government boundary, and a wider range of “externalities” should be considered. Intangibles should be included explicitly in all such evaluation exercises.
2. The actual incidence of costs and benefits should be examined in order to indicate the directional impact of the project and its implications in terms of equity. The elimination of transfer payments and double-counting should be postponed until the latest possible stage in the evaluation.
3. Equity considerations should be investigated in any transportation plan, since most projects have considerable equity implications for particular areas or socio-economic groups.
4. Discounted cash flow techniques, which are still used only in a minority of transportation studies, should become standard practice. Most evaluations are based on a single-year rate of return, or at best on simple trend forecasting. More resources should be devoted to proper evaluation of alternative plans which give due importance to the cost and benefit streams through time.
5. Sensitivity analysis should be used in all transportation evaluations. Knowledge of the impact of different assignments, shadow prices, and discount rates are essential information for any decisionmaker.
6. Last, but not least, much greater communication should exist between analyst and decisionmaker than has existed in the past.

     

The foreign non-fuel cargo-traffic demand of the major British seaports in 1980 and 1985, a Markov Chain approach

Projections of the future traffic demand of British seaports are of great importance to port management bodies because of the huge capital investment required for installing modern port facilities. In this paper, the author uses a first order Markov Chain model to forecast the non-fuel cargo traffic demand of the major British seaports in 1980 and 1985.     

Simultaneous optimization of transit line configuration and passenger line assignment

Passenger transportation in most large cities relies on an efficient mass transit system, whose line configuration has direct impacts on the system operating cost, passenger travel time and line transfers. Unfortunately, the interplay between transit line configuration and passenger line assignment has been largely ignored in the literature. This paper presents a model for simultaneous optimization of transit line configuration and passenger line assignment in a general network. The model is formulated as a linear binary integer program and can be solved by the standard branch and bound method. The model is illustrated with a couple of minimum spanning tree networks and a simplified version of the general Hong Kong mass transit railway network.