Origin–destination table disaggregation using biproportional least squares estimation

This paper describes a group of techniques for disaggregating origin–destination tables for travel forecasting that makes explicit use of observed traffic on a network. Five models within the group are presented, each of which uses nonlinear least-squares estimation to obtain row and column factors for splitting trip totals from and to larger geographical areas into smaller ones. The techniques are philosophically similar to Fratar factoring, although the solution method is quite different. The techniques are tested on a full-sized network for Northfield, MN and are found to work effectively.     

A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

飞机降落冲击荷载作用下高铁隧道动力响应及疲劳损伤研究北大核心CSCD

针对运营期高铁隧道衬砌结构在飞机降落冲击荷载作用下的动力响应规律及疲劳损伤问题,以成自高铁下穿天府机场东二跑道区间隧道为工程背景,采用有限元分析的方法研究隧道动力响应及疲劳损伤规律。结果表明:B747-400型飞机在粗暴着陆后0.05 s时刻动力载荷达到最大值,约为500 kN;在单次粗暴着陆工况下,拱顶位移和受力最大,位移最大峰值为1.58 mm,拉应力最大峰值为437.79 kPa,压应力最大峰值为556.24 kPa,衬砌结构未出现塑性损伤;飞机荷载长期作用下,随着循环次数的增加,结构损伤部位和程度也随之增加,拱顶损伤最突出,其次为边墙,隧道衬砌在上方飞机长期粗暴着陆作用下的疲劳寿命大致为25 a。     

Overview of intelligent ship route optimization methods北大核心CSCD

智能船舶航线优化在学术界和工业界均受到越来越多的关注。针对智能船舶航线优化问题,从航线设计方法和航线优化算法这2个层面,分别阐述各种设计方法和优化算法的特点。结合近5年来的最新研究成果,在分析国内外智能船舶航线优化技术发展现状的基础上,将航线设计方法归纳为3种,即基于气象数据的航线优化、基于油耗模型的航线优化以及基于航线库或航路点库的航线优化,剖析其技术内涵及应用情况;深入分析改进的等时线法、动态规划法、图形搜索算法、智能算法、人工智能和机器学习算法的特性及不足,总结归纳将各类算法应用于智能船舶航线优化时存在的主要问题。最后,简要展望智能船舶航线优化的发展趋势,为未来在该领域的研究提供一定的思路。     

科考船多波束导流罩线型CFD分析方法与试验验证

针对于科考船多波束导流罩设计和船体线型设计缺少关联分析的主要问题,介绍了一种科考船导流罩线型与船体线型一体化CFD分析方法,综合考虑实船航行过程中船体型线和导流罩型线之间的相互影响。根据这种分析方法,分别对导流罩和船体组合线型的阻力性能和防气泡性能进行了CFD预报,并进行了船模试验。两者吻合良好,验证了此种CFD分析方法的工程实用性。     

Trip distribution for limited destinations: a case study for grocery shopping trips in the Netherlands

In this paper, we introduce a new trip distribution model for destinations that are not homogeneously distributed. The model is a gravity model in which the spatial configuration of destinations is incorporated in the modeling process. The performance was tested on a survey with reported grocery shopping trips in the Dutch city of Almelo. The results show that the new model outperforms the traditional gravity model. It is also superior to the intervening opportunities model, because the distribution can be described as a function of travel costs, without increasing the computational time. In this study, the distribution was described by a simple function of Euclidean distance, which provides a good fit to the survey data. The slope of the distribution is quite steep. This shows that most trips are made to nearby supermarkets. However, a significant fraction of trips, mainly made by car, still goes to supermarkets further away. We argue that modeling of these trips by the new method will improve traffic flow predictions.     

Parameter transfer of common-metric attributes in choice analysis: implications for willingness to pay

There is a growing literature that promotes the presence of a mix of compensatory and semi-compensatory processing strategies in the way that individuals evaluate packages of attributes in real or hypothetical markets, and make choices. This paper proposes a specification for the utility form in a choice model to test if, given a pair of attributes with a common-metric (e.g., components of travel time or cost), the attribute with the dominating level defines the marginal (dis)utility that is assigned to both attributes. We refer to this processing strategy as a parameter transfer rule. We use a stated choice data set, in the context of car driving individuals choosing between tolled and non-tolled routes, to estimate a mixed logit model which incorporates the presence of the parameter transfer rule and the conventional fully compensatory rule, both existing up to a probability. We find that if this parameter transfer heuristic is part of the mix, the WTP is more than 30% higher, on average, than when only a fully compensatory rule is imposed. We also contrast the parameter transfer rule with other semi-compensatory heuristics which have been investigated in other papers, and show that the finding adds further support to the accumulating evidence that a semi-compensatory attribute processing rules tend to result in higher mean WTP estimates compared to the fully compensatory attribute processing rule.     

Equilibria of bilateral taxi–customer searching and meeting on networks

This paper proposes an equilibrium model to characterize the bilateral searching and meeting between customers and taxis on road networks. A taxi driver searches or waits for a customer by considering both the expected searching or waiting time cost and ride revenue, and a customer seeks a taxi ride to minimize full trip price. We suppose that the bilateral taxi–customer searching and meeting occurs anywhere in residential and commercial zones or at prescribed taxi stands, such as an airport or a railway station. We propose a meeting function to spell out the search and meeting frictions that arise endogenously as a result of the distinct spatial feature of the area and the taxi–customer moving decisions. With the proposed meeting function and the assumptions underlying taxi–customer search behaviors, the stationary competitive equilibrium achieved at fixed fare prices is determined when the demand of the customers matches the supply of taxis or there is market clearing at the prevailing searching and waiting times in every meeting location. We establish the existence of such an equilibrium by virtue of Brouwer’s fixed-point theorem and demonstrate its principal operational characteristics with a numerical example.     

Access control policies without inside queues: Their properties and public policy implications

An access control policy that eliminates all queues beyond the entry points to a network has obvious benefits, which include smooth travel and predictable travel times inside the network. Yet it has never been proven, to the best of our knowledge, whether excluding inside queues yields sub-optimal network performance or, in other words, allowing inside queues can actually further reduce the system travel cost. Moreover, it is not clear whether an optimal control policy derived from efficiency considerations can also be a fair policy to all road users. This paper provide answers to these questions in the context of a monocentric network. By analyzing the structure of the access control problem considering all feasible policies (with/without inside queues), we show that the minimal system cost realizable by access control can be obtained without directly solving a non-convex optimization program, and can indeed always be achieved by a control policy excluding all of the inside queues. These optimal policies are defined by a polyhedral set and a Finite Generation Algorithm can be applied to derive the analytical form of this set. The optimal policies are not unique in general, thus making it possible to achieve both minimal system cost and fairness simultaneously.