Investment strategies in market uncertainty

The nature of the global economy is one of dynamic change. Shipping is a service industry with its demand related to changes in international trade levels and patterns. As a consequence shipping is subject to sometimes unpredictable swings in demand so that the operator is required to make strategic planning decisions while navigating through boom or bust environments. While boom economies generate rising freight rates which are welcomed and encourage investment, ship operators may also have to face falling freight demand and declining freight rates that may have significant impact on profitability, often falling to uneconomic levels for extended periods. In such a period of uncertainty and declining profitability management will make operational decisions to reduce costs. However, shipping lines operate in a market environment so any decisions made to rationalize the trade may have significant long-term competitive implications. For example, traditional micro economic theory might suggest that the prudent strategy to adopt would be to close down the operation and reopen when the market conditions improve. In a world of certainty or when costs of taking this action are zero, this would be a valid strategy. However, because of fear of competitors taking up a line's market share if the shipping company exits, even temporarily, this strategy cannot be valued simply in terms of shut-down and start-up costs. A further consideration is the fact that standard capital budgeting techniques, such as Net Present Value (NPV), cannot incorporate the flexibility to respond to new information and strategic responses explicitly into their investment analysis. This paper will demonstrate the use of Real Option Analysis (ROA) to provide guidelines for decisions about closing operations in adverse market conditions.     

大体积混凝土温度裂缝成因及防预措施

萧山港区及其物流现状萧山港区是杭州港四大港区中唯一位于钱塘江南岸的相对独立港区。近些年来,杭州港萧山港区的建设得到了快速发展。2006年完成货物吞吐量1157万吨,约占杭州港年度     

The coastal edge of the Northeast Water polynya in spring 1993

Multidisciplinary, marine ecological observations were conducted at the shallow water edge of the Northeast Water in June, 1993. Although variable in size and shape, a small polynya was constantly present at Eskimonaes, at the fast-ice edge of Ingolfsfjord. A shallow stratified layer developed at the water sufface at negative water and air temperatures—an effect of sea ice melting in cold water early in the season. Nutrients were recorded in considerable quantities, although by mid July NO₃ had become depleted. The chlorophyll and phytoplankton maxima at 8–12 m depth had peak values of 2 mg chl a m⁻³, typical for Arctic algal blooms. The phytoplankton included over 90 species and was dominated by the Fragillariopsis group. Zooplankton was poor in biomass and density, but over 23 taxa were found, with the copepods Oithona similis and Pseudocalanus acuspes being numerically dominant. Sedimentation was approximately 0.2 g dry weight m⁻² d⁻¹ and suspended matter concentrations ranged from 4 to 19 mg l⁻¹. The benthos was represented by hard bottom forms only, with a surprisingly dense cover of macrophytes. Juvenile sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis), brittle stars (Ophiocten sericeum) and amphipods were dominant. Higher trophic levels were represented by benthic feeders, such as eiders and walruses. The area observed was more similar to high Arctic fjord ecosystems than to the offshore central Northeast Water polynya.     

沉船打捞谁来"买单"

我国沿海和内河水域每年都发生多起船舶沉没、搁浅等海难事故，其中，很多沉船因打捞清除费用得不到有效解决而不得不残留在航道、锚地、港池或航线附近．成为水中碍航物，对航行安全和海洋环境构成严重威胁或潜在危险。如需彻底打捞清除这些沉船，有关专家估算至少需要投入上亿元的资金。如何解决这笔费用，保证通航安全？这是摆在海事部门面前的一个难题。     

局域光纤IP电话的性能研究

提出并分析了基于光纤网络的IP电话系统，针对IP电话网中的时延，抖动，数据包丢失等关键问题分别进行分析。找出了取消网关，路由器和采用光纤化等解决方法，比较基于H．232协议的IP电话与基于SIP协议的光纤IP电话系统，发现利用光纤网能很好补偿时延和改善数据包丢失等问题，提高系统的抗干扰能力，使IP电话系统的性能得到很大提高，采用排队论进行了流量分析，证明以上方法是有效的。     

Reliable container line supply chains

Container line supply chains, based on a near-frictionless international transport belief, have contributed to economic prosperity and also rendered themselves uniquely vulnerable to various risks. 9/11 terrorists attacks, the lock-out of American West Ports and the global breakout of SARS disease have gradually shown that a) the safety and reliability in the chains are facing an unprecedented challenge and b) traditional engineeringbased risk assessment methods are inadequate to deal with the threats from variational environments, especially in the era of terrorism rampancy. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to develop a conceptual risk assessment model for container line supply chains based on a modified Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology that takes risks from vulnerability rather than only hazards into account. It gives particular emphasis on the analysis of the threats with a high level of uncertainty from both safety and economic viewpoints. The advantages of the vulnerability-based risk analysis approach to the hazard-based one are clarified and both engineering-based and managerial risk assessments are also discussed.     

论提升企业核心竞争力

在国内外学者的研究基础上,总结出了企业核心竞争力的基本内涵和6项基本特征;提出了在培育和提升企业核心竞争力的实践中应坚持5条基本原则;面对经济全球化和网络信息化的趋势,针对处于体制过渡期国有企业的实际,指出了全面提升企业核心竞争力的7条基本对策.     

德国铁路电力机车动车概况

简要介绍德国铁路现有电力机车动车的各种系列、数量和主要改进.     

Valuation of externalities through neo-classical methods by including institutional variables

Externalities are uncompensated influences that are not expressed in a market but that affect the production possibilities or the welfare level of third parties. An example is the noise pollution in airport areas. Although air transport is an important source of economic growth and employment in many countries, the social and environmental problems connected with this sector are rising rapidly. Consequently, airports are becoming a matter of concern to many politicians. On what kind of values should they base their decisions as to further growth or consolidation of the current situation? In this paper we discuss two approaches, one based on mainstream, neo-classical, economics, and one based on institutional approaches, more in particular new institutional economics, which can be seen as a development complementary to the mainstream.     

局域网在计量管理中的重要作用

铁路跨越式发展必将带动铁路运输生产、经营管理的巨大变化，也必将促使计量这项技术基础工作发生重大变革。局域网的普及为计量工作的创新发展提供了优质平台。