On the nature and sorces of controversy in the economic analysis of the liner shipping industry†

The simulations performed show that demand for quality tankers has to increase by 30% for a two-tier tanker market to emerge. The two-tier freight structure will only last for 3–5 years due to contracting induced by higher freight rates. This means that OPA does not by itself result in higher freight rates for tankers that comply with the requirements. If Western Europe also closes their trades to substandard tankers, a two-tier market emerges and quality tankers obtain a premium. The paper presents a simulation model for international tanker markets. The non-linear complementary equilibrium model solves for a sequence of static equilibria in segmented tanker freight markets, shipbuilding and scrapping markets. Freight markets are segmented according to quality requirements for tankers. The model specifies three tanker classes and one—quality tankers—can operate both market segments.     

超定量系列波浪重现期值研究

首先建立波浪超定量概率模型,提出超定量抽样分组原则以保证数据独立性,通过检验可知该原则下波浪超定量系列能较好地拟合GP分布;提出根据年平均出现频次、是否服从Possion分布和拟合GP情况综合分析判断,寻找合理阈值的方法;分别用GP分布和相应的复合极值分布分析超定量系列,并比较传统的P-III分布,分析可知,采用GP分布和P-GP(Poisson-GP)复合分布计算超定量系列所得的重现期值基本一致,且P-III曲线所得结果接近。     

Pedestrian gap acceptance for mid-block street crossing

Abstract

This paper investigates pedestrians' traffic gap acceptance for mid-block street crossing in urban areas. A field survey was carried out at an uncontrolled mid-block location in Athens, Greece. Pedestrians' decisions and traffic conditions were videotaped in terms of the size of traffic gaps rejected or accepted, waiting times and crossing attempts and vehicle speeds. A lognormal regression model was developed to examine pedestrian gap acceptance. It was found that gap acceptance was better explained by the distance from the incoming vehicle, rather than its speed. Other significant effects included illegal parking, presence of other pedestrians and incoming vehicles’ size. A binary logistic regression model was developed to examine the effect of traffic gaps and other parameters on pedestrians' decisions to cross the street or not. The results reveal that this decision is affected by the distance from the incoming vehicles and the waiting times of pedestrians.     

Adoption of Internet Services in Liner Shipping: An Empirical Study of Shippers in Taiwan

Abstract

The Internet service attributes desired by shippers were examined as well as a model that seeks to explain the intention of shippers to use Internet services in liner shipping. Using data collected from a survey of a group of shippers in Taiwan, the relationships among the constructs in the model were tested, namely: perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, security and use intention. The results suggest that shippers perceive tracing to be the most important service attribute of Internet services, followed by checking for customs clearance, vessel schedules and electronic document services. The findings indicate that perceived ease of use is the major factor affecting the intention of shippers to use Internet services, and that perceived ease of use has a strong positive effect on perceived usefulness. The results also indicate that security has a positive effect on a shipper’s perception of ease of use. However, the influence of security on use intention and perceived usefulness was not supported in this study. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings on the intention of shippers to use Internet services in liner shipping are discussed.     

‘Informal Travel’: A New Conceptualization of Travel Patterns?

Abstract

In transportation, informal transport refers mainly to the use of paratransit services in the developing world. In this paper we argue that informal travel may include, in addition to mode and users, also other travel pattern elements, such as trip planning, structure, purpose, and destination. Each of these can be placed along an axis ranging from formal manifestations to informal ones, thus creating a ‘formality scale’. Moreover, these elements may be combined in numerous ways, creating a multitude of travel patterns that may be placed all along the formality scale. After providing a definition of formal, semi-formal, and informal travel and characterizing travel patterns according to the formality scale we identify population groups which exemplify semi-formal and informal travel patterns. Next, we analyze the 2009 US National Household Travel Survey, which suggests informal travel may be growing. This leads to a discussion on various factors that might affect travel formality. Most notably, the growing use of information and communication technologies may be shifting travel toward the informal end of the axis. In turn, this might affect trip symmetry, which may result in further effects on the transportation system.     

横风下复线路堤高度对高速列车气动性能的影响

利用Creo软件建立了某型动车组头中尾3车编组和不同高度的路堤模型,通过Fluent软件模拟列车在车速分别为300和350 km·h-1,横风风速分别为17.10、20.70、24.40和28.40 m·s-1的环境下运行,将获取的高速列车气动力载荷施加到Simpack建立的动力学模型中,计算其动力学性能参数;深入分析了横风工况下高速列车在不同高度复线路堤背风侧运行时车体的压力分布、气流场结构、气动力与风致安全性,并重点探究了头车在不同运行速度和横风风速下的运行安全性。分析结果表明:在相同车速和横风环境下,随着路堤高度的增加,列车受到的侧向力整体呈增大趋势,尾车在横风作用下受到反向侧向力,头车所受侧向力最大,且升力持续增大,中间车所受升力相对较大,尾车所受阻力最大;横风环境下列车压力峰值点位于头车鼻尖处且向迎风侧偏移,各路堤高度工况下气流场结构基本相同,头车背风侧和底部转向架处有明显的涡流,但尾车处的涡流却在迎风侧,这可能是导致尾车反向侧向力的主因;脱轨系数、轮轴横向力、轮轨垂向力和轮重减载率均随路堤高度和横风风速的增大而增大,轮轨垂向力始终在安全限值内,当横风风速分别为24.40和28.40 m·s-1时,列车运行速度应分别低于350和300 km·h-1,以保证列车行车安全。      

衢江隧道新建设计

当交通拥堵问题日益严重、难以用交通设计的方式进行有效改善时,有必要通过新建道路的方式来提高道路的通行能力从而缓解交通拥堵情况。为研究如何在降低新建隧道工程造价的同时,充分发挥衔接路段相关道路的交通疏解功能的问题,以新建衢江隧道工程的道路设计为例,根据相关的国家设计规范以及衢州市规划文件,在确定技术指标、控制条件以及建设条件之后,通过多角度比选隧道施工工法与线路方案,最终确定衢江隧道总体设计方案为施工上采用围堰明挖法、接线上采用隧道南岸接地点前后布置的方案。     

国内外船用中高速柴油机产业现状和发展动态

未来10－15年，中高速柴油机仍将是大中型舰船，中型民船主机，辅机和高速艇的主要动力，与船用低速机不同，中、高速柴油机机型分布很分散，这就给我国船用中高速柴油机的发展带来了很多困难。本文较全面地分析了国内外船用中高速柴油机产业现状和发展动态，为我国船用中高速柴油机的发展提供参考依据。     

Method to calculate resistance of high-speed displacement ship taking the effect of dynamic sinkage and trim and fluid viscosity into account

A method is presented to calculate the resistance of a high-speed displacement ship taking the effect of sinkage and trim and viscosity of fluid into account. A free surface flow field is evaluated by solving Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations with volume of fluid (VoF) method. The sinkage and trim are computed by equating the vertical force and pitching moment to the hydrostatic restoring force and moment. The software Fluent, Maxsurf and MATLAB are used to implement this method. With dynamic mesh being used, the position of a ship is updated by the motion of ??ship plus boundary layer?? grid zone. The hull factors are introduced for fast calculating the running attitude of a ship. The method has been applied to the ship model INSEAN2340 for different Froude numbers and is found to be efficient for evaluating the flow field, resistance, sinkage and trim.     

基于AVL Designer的曲轴扭振仿真软件关键问题研究

讨论AVL Designer软件在发动机曲轴扭振计算过程中需要注意的3个关键问题:载荷数据、曲轴刚度数据和扭振结果分析。缸压传感器测量获取的载荷数据比Boost软件计算更加精确。曲轴刚度数据由试验、有限元计算或AVL Autoshaft计算获取。扭振结果分析包括临界转速、节点位置等。