Time taken for residents to adopt a new public transport service: examining heterogeneity through duration modelling

When a new public transport service is introduced it would be valuable for public authorities, financing organisations and transport operators to know how long it will take for people to start to use the service and what factors influence this. This paper presents results from research analysing the time taken for residents living close to a new guided bus service to start to use (or adopt) the service. Data was obtained from a sample of residents on whether they used the new service and the number of weeks after the service was introduced before they first used it. Duration modelling has been used to analyse how the likelihood of starting to use the new service changes over time (after the introduction of the service) and to examine what factors influence this. It is found that residents who have not used the new service are increasingly unlikely to use it as time passes. Those residents gaining greater accessibility benefits from the new service are found to be quicker to use the service, although the size of this effect is modest compared to that of other between-resident differences. Allowance for the possibility that there existed a proportion of the sample that would never use the new service was tested using a split population model (SPD) model. The SPD model indicates that 36% of residents will never use the new service and is informative in differentiating factors that influence whether Route 20 is used and when it is used.

Second best toll and capacity optimisation in networks: solution algorithm and policy implications

This paper looks at the first and second best jointly optimal toll and road capacity investment problems from both policy and technical oriented perspectives. On the technical side, the paper investigates the applicability of the constraint cutting algorithm for solving the second best problem under elastic demand which is formulated as a bilevel programming problem. The approach is shown to perform well despite several problems encountered by our previous work in Shepherd and Sumalee (Netw. Spat. Econ., 4(2): 161–179, 2004). The paper then applies the algorithm to a small sized network to investigate the policy implications of the first and second best cases. This policy analysis demonstrates that the joint first best structure is to invest in the most direct routes while reducing capacities elsewhere. Whilst unrealistic this acts as a useful benchmark. The results also show that certain second best policies can achieve a high proportion of the first best benefits while in general generating a revenue surplus. We also show that unless costs of capacity are known to be low then second best tolls will be affected and so should be analysed in conjunction with investments in the network.

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Regulation of the informal transport sector in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: welfare impacts and policy analysis

In Brazil, the explosion of informal transport activity during the past decade has had profound effects on formal public transport systems and is a source of great controversy in the urban transportation sector. A variety of policies have been proposed to manage the growth of the sector. This study seeks to understand how proposed policies will impact the users of these systems. A corridor in Rio de Janeiro with substantial informal activity was used as a case study. Measures of welfare changes in a discrete choice framework were used to estimate proposed policies’ impacts on users. Eleven candidate policies were evaluated, ranging from the eradication of the informal modes and investment in formal modes, to the legalization of the informal modes. Benefits were compared with costs and the distribution of benefits across income classes was explored. Net benefits from some policies were found to be substantial. Legalizing the informal sector was found to benefit users slightly but further investments in the sector are probably inefficient. Users benefited most from improvements in formal mass transit modes, at roughly 100–200 dollars per commuter per year. Finally, policies to foster a competitive environment for the delivery of both informal and formal services were shown to benefit users about 100 dollars per commuter per year. Together, the regulation of the informal sector and investments in the formal sector serve to reinforce the movement towards competitive concessions for services and help reduce the impacts of cartelization and costly in-road competition.

In-use measurement of the activity, fuel use, and emissions of eight cement mixer trucks operated on each of petroleum diesel and soy-based B20 biodiesel

In-use micro-scale fuel use and emission rates were measured for eight cement mixer trucks using a portable emission measurement system. Each vehicle was tested on petroleum diesel and B20 biodiesel. Average fuel use and emission rates increase monotonically versus engine manifold absolute pressure. A typical duty cycle includes loading at a cement plant, transit while loaded from the cement plant to work site, creeping in a queue of vehicles at the worksite, unloading, and transit without load from the site to the plant. For B20 versus petroleum diesel, there is no significant change in the rate of fuel use, CO₂ emissions, and NO emissions, and significant decreases in emissions for CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter. For loaded versus unloaded onroad travel, fuel use and CO₂ emissions rates are approximately 60% higher and the rates for other pollutants are approximately 30–50% higher. A substantial portion of cycle emissions occurred at the work site. Inter-vehicle and intra-cycle variability are also quantified using the micro-scale methodology.     

甘肃省综合运输发展探讨

文章从甘肃省当前经济社会的发展水平和铁路、公路、民航、水路等多种运输方式发展情况入手,针对甘肃省交通运输业发展的特点,重点分析了当前综合运输体系内管理体制、综合设施、运行机制等三个方面的衔接水平和协调能力,着力寻求影响和制约甘肃省综合运输体系建设的制约瓶颈,并根据当前交通运输发展的基本趋势和特点,提出了加快推进甘肃省综合运输体系建设的对策和建议。     

武汉市金桥大道快速通道斜拉桥主塔施工研究

研究了主塔不同施工方法,包括下横梁分层成型预应力分期张拉不同量值比较;主塔的横向水平主动支撑计算,主动力的确定及迭代模拟;主塔塔柱和中横梁异步施工对比;上横梁浇筑前提前挂索计算;结合该桥的特点及分析结果,优化了主塔各关键部位的施工方法。     

10吨级轮边减速驱动桥半轴售后早期断裂原因分析

10吨级轮边减速驱动桥是我公司自主研发的小吨位工程车用车桥,由于其特殊的整车结构,车桥采用桥包偏置且后倾6°30′结构,半轴采用直接锻造成型后再热处理的工艺,表面质量,尤其是两端花键附近位置较差,导致车桥在运转过程中,长半轴在受扭转和弯曲的双重作用下,在此位置频繁发生早期断裂失效。通过加粗杆部直径,减少半轴夹持部位表面粗糙度,在保证半轴强度情况下适当降低其表面硬度及层深进行改进。     

轿车铝合金发动机罩板的轻量化设计与可制造性分析

为了将铝合金零件的综合力学性能纳入初始设计范畴,提出了一套结构优化设计方法。通过建立某款轿车发动机罩板的有限元模型,选择铝合金材料替换原有钢材料,以罩板综合性能为约束,结合优化设计方法,考虑板材的成形性因素,基于原始钢结构空间布局进行全新设计。结果表明:铝合金罩板在满足结构性能要求和可制造性的前提下可实现减轻质量47.1%,为初始设计阶段的铝合金罩板轻量化设计提供了一套可借鉴的方法。     

基于路段变异系数的路径行程时间可靠度评价

为了给出行者提供更准确的候选路径的行程时间可靠度,并克服缺乏完整观测样本的局限,介绍了一种符合对数正态分布假设和基于路段行程时间变异系数的路径行程时间可靠度评价方法,并解析了早到指数和迟到指数这2个符合概率特征的新指标.分别在仿真的城市信号灯路网和乌鲁木齐市内环快速路开展实证研究,验证该方法在城市道路上的路径行程时间可靠度估计的适应性.仿真结果证明,应用乌鲁木齐市少量浮动车数据的估计结果显示该方法简单实用,但是评价结果对各路段之间行程时间方差的差异程度较敏感,该方法易于夸大城市信控道路上的路径行程时间的不确定性.