CIM模型在高速公路投资风险评估中的应用

在分析、识别高速公路投资风险的基础上,建立了高速公路投资风险评估指标体系.针对风险因素具有结构多层次、因素多方面、评估模糊性、出现随机性、直接量化困难等特点,基于模糊理论,结合层次分析法,建立了控制区间和记忆(CIM)模型对高速公路投资风险进行评估.通过控制区间和记忆模型在工程实践中的应用,验证了CIM综合评估法在风险评估中的有效性和可操作性.     

Timing sequence changes of landscape plants in Shanghai Area,China

Based on published reports and direct observation, the common resources of landscape plant species in the Shanghai area were identified and studied in terms of the landscape characteristics of timing sequence changes over a one year time period. The results showed that there were 199 common landscape plant species in Shanghai, distributed in 67 families and 129 genera. These plants were categorized by three ornamental characteristics: flowers, foliage and fruits. The species were thus further analyzed according to the time periods which these characteristics were present. The results showed that flower ornamental distributed throughout the year, particularly from April to June, and plant species with colorful foliage could be seen every month, and particularly in November and December. On the other hand, few plant species with fruit ornamentals were observed in Shanghai area. The diversity of landscape timing sequence changes of the 199 plant species under examination was then analyzed by using the Shannon-Weiner and Simpson index formulas. The results showed that the higher diversity was observed in January, February and from August to October, while the lowest diversity was recorded from March to July and during November and December. The diversity of landscape characteristics of these plants was ranked according to foliage, flowers and fruit. Using this method, one park and one plant community were selected to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of their time-changing plant landscape, with the goal of assessing the validity of the chosen ranking method. These results in the present study would be helpful to evaluate the plant landscape in a specified space and further enrich the diversity of plant and landscape by a target-oriented way.     

交通瓶颈影响下两路口联动控制策略研究

针对路口相关路段发生交通瓶颈现象时原有的路口控制策略很可能会产生溢流现象这一问题,在对周期内路段车流组成进行分析的基础上,应用集散波理论,分析了不同交通瓶颈通行能力对上游路口到交通瓶颈间路段溢流现象产生的影响,针对该影响,分析了交通瓶颈下游路口为消除该影响在控制策略方面应进行的调整,分析结果表明,下游路口某车道排队长度延伸至交通瓶颈可能会使上游路口在同样信号控制策略下从非溢流状态变为溢流状态;一方面可通过延长下游路口相关相位的绿灯时间来避免上游路口到交通瓶颈间路段的溢流现象;另一方面可以通过改变上下游路口间的相位差来消除交通瓶颈通行能力改变对溢流现象产生的影响.     

基于差异时效的服务评价模型

针对KNN(k-nearest neighbor)方法在服务评价过程中存在的时效量化、评价窗口宽度以及反馈控制等问题,提出了具有差异时效的服务评价模型(WSEM-VTU).在WSEM-VTU中,采用系统动力学方法研究复杂时效量化方法,以获得差异时效量化结果;基于复杂时效量化方法得到的结果,自适应计算评价窗口宽度;根据评价统计特征,设计恶意评价反馈控制策略.通过实验,将WSEM-VTU与现有评价模型WSEM-E及WSEM-KNN进行比较,结果表明:WSEM-VTU的平均误差为0.877,比WSEM-E和WSEM-KNN分别降低了1.020和0.135;引入反馈控制策略后,WSEM-VTU出现恶意评价的情况平均降低67%.     

新型沥青添加剂TPS的性能

为了了解新型添加剂TPS的路用性能,进行了不同TPS掺量的沥青胶结料的针入度试验、软化点试验、稠度试验、延度及测力延度试验、弹性恢复试验及弯曲蠕变试验、直接拉伸试验,对加入TPS添加剂后的沥青混合料,进行了车辙试验、弯曲破坏试验、疲劳试验和冻融劈裂试验,并与SBS改性沥青混合料的部分试验结果进行了对比。结果表明添加TPS后,沥青胶结料的感温性、高温性与低温性及沥青混合料的高温稳定性、低温抗裂性、抗疲劳性和水稳定性都得到了较大程度的提高,添加TPS沥青混凝土具有良好的路用性能。     

未知负载和转子电阻的交流感应电机自适应控制

基于自适应观测控制器设计了三相交流感应电机调速系统,该控制器在未知电机转子电阻和负载及不需要测量磁链情况下,可同时且不受限制地单独控制电机转速(转矩)和磁链.控制器只测量转速、电压和电流信号自适应估计磁链和未知参数.用该控制方法设计了两相坐标轴磁场定向电机模型,系统不存在非线性,因此适合离散化和DSP系统的数字实现.     

急性脑梗死患者血C反应蛋白水平与颈动脉粥样硬化的关系

目的探讨急性脑梗死患者血C反应蛋白(CRP)水平与颈动脉粥样硬化的关系。方法对52例急性脑梗死患者和30例对照组进行观察。采用速率散射比浊法测定血CRP含量;应用美国Acuson Sequoia 521彩色电脑声像仪检测颈动脉内膜-中膜厚度(IMT),观察颈动脉粥样斑块。结果急性脑梗死患者血CRP含量、颈动脉IMT和粥样斑块数较对照组明显增加;血CRP水平与临床神经功能缺损评分、吸烟指数、颈动脉IMT及斑块数呈正相关。结论CRP作为炎性指标可能在促进动脉粥样硬化的发生和发展中起了重要的作用;血CRP水平可作为急性脑梗死患者病情轻重和预后的评价指标。     

煤合成柴油(F-T柴油)在柴油机上的试验研究

试验研究了单缸柴油机燃用F-T柴油和0号柴油的燃烧特性和排放特性。与发动机燃用0号柴油相比，燃用F-T柴油时燃油消耗率降低，有效热效率升高，有害排放降低，结果表明，F—T柴油是一种高品质的柴油机代用燃料。     

A mixed Bayesian network for two-dimensional decision modeling of departure time and mode choice

The modeling of travel decision making has been a popular topic in transportation planning. Previous studies focused on random-utility discrete choice models and machine learning methods. This paper proposes a new modeling approach that utilizes a mixed Bayesian network (BN) for travel decision inference. The authors use a predetermined BN structure and calculate priori and posterior probability distributions of the decision alternatives based on the observed explanatory variables. As a “utility-free” decision inference method, the BN model releases the linear structure in the utility function but assumes the traffic level of service variables follow multivariate Gaussian distribution conditional on the choice variable. A real-world case study is conducted by using the regional travel survey data for a two-dimensional decision modeling of both departure time choice and travel mode choice. The results indicate that a two-dimensional mixed BN provides better accuracy than decision tree models and nested logit models. In addition, one can derive continuous elasticity with respect to each continuous explanatory variable for sensitivity analysis. This new approach addresses a research gap in probabilistic travel decision making modeling as well as two-dimensional travel decision modeling.     

铝合金耐压结构设计分析与试验验证

根据水下潜器总体性能要求,按照最小重量原则,结合规范和有限元方法设计工作潜深为500m的铝合金带加强筋形式的圆柱耐压舱,并通过压力筒加压试验,对Ansys有限元静力分析的精确度进行了验证,为耐压结构设计与校核提供重要参考.