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在无信息、发布历史信息和发布预测信息3种信息条件下,分别建立了驾驶员的路径理解行程时间期望值的更新模型.通过建立一个含有2条平行路径的简单路网,对3种交通信息条件下驾驶员逐日路径选择进行了仿真,结果表明:交通信息对驾驶员的作用与驾驶员路径选择的随机程度和对信息依赖程度有关;在3种交通信息条件下,路网均不能达到用户均衡平衡状态;交通信息的预测方法不同,预测信息对驾驶员路径选择的影响有差异. 相似文献
94.
川江汽车滚装船是近年来万州水运市场的一个热点.在水运市场全面萧条的状况下,业内有识之士看准了进出川江汽车翻山越岭的艰辛,将半舱机驳船割除船首加装跳板装上汽车,千里川江一泻而下,陆路的天险顷刻转为水上通途.这种运输方式一出现,立即受到市场青睐.但在一哄而上的竞争中,大部分滚装船的建造质量令人堪忧. 相似文献
95.
An altimeter data assimilation scheme has been tested in the OCCAM (Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modelling) global 1/4°, 36-level model using a twin experiment format. The Cooper and Haines displacement scheme is used. The method works well in most regions and depths. Currents and densities in the top 1000 m generally improve by over 50–70% after 5 months of sea level assimilation every 15 days. Below 1000 m, an error reduction of up to 50% is achieved. The errors remain low during a further 60-day run without assimilation. Diagnostics for the North Atlantic, the Tropical Pacific and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are shown alongside the global averages.The main problems encountered were in weakly stratified regions of the Antarctic and Arctic seas. A scale selective filter is developed to avoid assimilating scales much larger than the local deformation radius, and this avoids the adverse assimilation effects in the southern oceans. A companion paper uses this scheme to assimilate TOPEX and ERS-1 altimeter maps. 相似文献
96.
From a comparative study it is concluded that current design rules for the spherical pressure hull of manned submersible need to be updated and unified. In this paper, a series of spherical pressure hulls are calculated by nonlinear FEM. Based on these numerical results, the influence of critical arch length and the relationship of ultimate strength with t/R and structural imperfection are studied. Finally, empirical formulae for the ultimate strength of the titanium alloy spherical pressure hull of deep manned submersible based on numerical computations are given. The formulae can be used as the core equations to update current design rules. 相似文献
97.
交通工程安全管理工作开展时,为全面提升交通工程安全管理水平与效能,应当合理应用信息化管理技术,建构现代化交通工程安全管理体系与模式,不断推动我国交通事业高质量发展。本文就信息化管理在交通工程安全管理工作中的实际应用进行分析探讨。 相似文献
98.
The establishment and implementation of a training programme requires a training needs assessment (TNA). Without this approach, more often than not, training programmes have failed to succeed and to make such an assessment the instructional designer, i.e. the person in charge for this work, needs to follow a methodology. Unlike the other industries, the port industry has neglected the use of these methodologies, which is shown by the lack of research work published in academic journals. With a view to fill the existing gap, the paper proposes a five-step TNA methodology to be used in the port industry and applies its first three steps to investigate the port training situation in the new European Union member states. To achieve this objective, the paper is structured in the following way: puts the research work into context; addresses the role of ports; presents a port TNA methodology; explains research methodology; addresses port training issues in the new European-member states; and presents conclusions and further comments. 相似文献
99.
Peter B. Marlow 《Maritime Policy and Management》1991,18(3):201-216
This paper concentrates on the shipping industry and considers the forms of fiscal and financial incentives which are used by different governments to promote or encourage investment in their shipping industry. The analysis reduces the various packages of investment incentives and loan arrangements to a common measurement—the net present value of the package—and uses this to draw international comparisons and rankings. The results are based on different values of rates of return in the shipping industry and under certain assumptions concerning the rate of inflation and the rate of discount. Differences in loan arrangements have also been incorporated. The particular results are valid only for the specified circumstances but the methodology is generally applicable. 相似文献
100.
A probabilistic particle tracking model is used to simulate the oil dispersion after the Prestige wreckage. This oil spill constitutes a suitable benchmark to analyze the capabilities of a probabilistic model, since the time elapsed from wreckage to oil landing (12 days) is much longer than the reliability time associated with forecast winds, usually on the order of 3–4 days. The particle model can be run in two different modes: real time mode (when existing reliable wind fields for the event under scope) and in probabilistic mode (in absence of reliable wind fields but with historical fields corresponding to a similar period). The validity of the particle model is first evaluated in a hindcast way, running the Prestige case with the wind fields corresponding to the period November 19 to November 30, 2002, which were not available at the moment of the wreckage. Calculations show the accuracy of the model to provide the right impact point and timing. The probabilistic model is then used to simulate the same event by means of historical data. The region where the oil landed is shown to be the area with the highest probability to be impacted. 相似文献