A mixed Bayesian network for two-dimensional decision modeling of departure time and mode choice

The modeling of travel decision making has been a popular topic in transportation planning. Previous studies focused on random-utility discrete choice models and machine learning methods. This paper proposes a new modeling approach that utilizes a mixed Bayesian network (BN) for travel decision inference. The authors use a predetermined BN structure and calculate priori and posterior probability distributions of the decision alternatives based on the observed explanatory variables. As a “utility-free” decision inference method, the BN model releases the linear structure in the utility function but assumes the traffic level of service variables follow multivariate Gaussian distribution conditional on the choice variable. A real-world case study is conducted by using the regional travel survey data for a two-dimensional decision modeling of both departure time choice and travel mode choice. The results indicate that a two-dimensional mixed BN provides better accuracy than decision tree models and nested logit models. In addition, one can derive continuous elasticity with respect to each continuous explanatory variable for sensitivity analysis. This new approach addresses a research gap in probabilistic travel decision making modeling as well as two-dimensional travel decision modeling.     

Simultaneous internalization of traffic congestion and noise exposure costs

This study elaborates on the interrelation of external effects, in particular road traffic congestion and noise. An agent-based simulation framework is used to compute and internalize user-specific external congestion effects and noise exposures. The resulting user equilibrium corresponds to an approximation of the system optimum. For traffic congestion and noise, single objective optimization is compared with multiple objective optimization. The simulation-based optimization approach is applied to the real-world case study of the Greater Berlin area. The results reveal a negative correlation between congestion and noise. Nevertheless, the multiple objective optimization yields a simultaneous reduction in congestion and noise. During peak times, congestion is the more relevant external effect, whereas, during the evening, night and morning, noise is the more relevant externality. Thus, a key element for policy making is to follow a dynamic approach, i.e. to temporally change the incentives. During off-peak times, noise should be reduced by concentrating traffic flows along main roads, i.e. inner-city motorways. In contrast, during peak times, congestion is reduced by shifting transport users from the inner-city motorway to smaller roads which, however, may have an effect on other externalities.     

Activity involvement and time spent on computers for leisure: an econometric analysis on the American Time Use Survey dataset

Internet is capturing more and more of our time each day, and the increasing levels of engagement are mainly due to the use of social media. Time spent on social media is observed in the American Time Use Survey and recorded as leisure time on Personal Computer (PC). In this paper, we extend the traditional analysis of leisure activity participation by including leisure activities that require the use of a PC. We study the substitution effects with both in-home and out-of-home leisure activities and the time budget allocated to each of them. The modeling framework that includes both discrete alternatives and continuous decision variables allow for full correlation across the utility of the alternatives that are all of leisure type and the regressions that model the time allocated to each activity. Results show that there is little substitution effect between leisure with PC and the relative time spent on it, with in-home and out-of-home leisure episodes. Households with more children and full-time workers are more likely to engage in in-home and PC related leisure activities (especially during weekends). Increments in the travel time of social trips result in significant reductions in leisure time during weekdays.     

Factors associated with home-based e-working and e-shopping in Nanjing,China

The widespread adoption of information and communication technology has facilitated frequent e-activities in people’s daily life. From the perspective of individual’s time use on e-working and e-shopping at home, this paper aims to enhance our understanding of the function of home beyond a living space for family life. Using a household survey of 608 full-time paid employees who conducted e-activities at home in Nanjing, China, we investigated the characteristics and patterns of home-based e-working and e-shopping. Only 7.9% of the respondents neither e-shopped nor e-worked at home. We find that the socio-demographic context, Internet use habits, attitudes towards e-working/e-shopping, and geographical accessibility have influenced the patterns of home-based e-working and e-shopping. The results indicate that the rich e-activities taking place at home have changed the time use at home and reinforced the function of home as a multifunctional hub.     

Relationship between well-being and daily time use of elderly: evidence from the disabilities and use of time survey

According to US Census Bureau, the number of individuals in the age group above 65 years is expected to increase by more than 100% from the year 2000 to 2030. It is anticipated that increasing elderly population will put unforeseen demands on the transportation infrastructure due to the atypical mobility and travel needs of the elderly. Consequently, transportation professionals have attempted to understand the travel behavior of the elderly including the trip frequency, trip distance and mode choice decisions. Majority of the research on elderly travel behavior have focused on the mobility outcomes with limited research into understanding the tradeoffs made by this population segment in terms of their in-home and out-of-home activity engagement choices. The goal of the current research is to contribute to this line of inquiry by simultaneously exploring the daily activity engagement choices of the elderly Americans including their in-home and out-of-home activity participation (what activities to pursue) and time alloocation (duration of each activity) decisions while accounting for the temporal constraints. Further, the study attempts to explore the relationship between physical and subjective well-being and daily activity engagement decisions of the elderly; where subjective well-being is derived from reported needs satisfaction with life and different domains of it. To this end, data from the Disabilities and Use of Time survey of Panel Study of Income Dynamics was used to estimate a panel version of MDCEV model. In addition to person- and household-level demographic variables, activity participation and time use choices of elderly were found to vary across different levels of reported physical and subjective well-being measures. The model estimation results were plausible and provide interesting insights into the activity engagement choices of the elderly with implications for transportation policy development. Among other socio-demographic variables, living arrangements (living with family versus in elderly homes) were found to have significant influence on how people participate into different in-home versus out-of-home activities. For example, elderly living in the elderly home were found to participate more into out-of-home activities compared to people living with families. Elderly with disabilities were found to compensate lower participation into out-of-home activities with more participation into in-home activities. Considerable heterogeneity was observed in time engagement behavior of the elderly across reported levels of satisfaction with finance, job and cognitive needs. For example, elderly expressing high satisfaction with job was found to spend less time in in-home social activities. Elderly reporting higher satisfaction with finance were found to spend more time into OH social and shopping activities.     

Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology offering several benefits to the society and causing significant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an effort to quantify the effect of different drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation diffusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes influence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are influential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more influenced by word of mouth.     

里海远洋渔船无人机舱系统研究

针对我国远洋渔船装备落后、操纵性差、机舱环境恶劣、电站管理水平低、劳动强度大以及渔船机舱自动化水平低等问题,介绍里海远洋渔船无人机舱系统的设计与组成。通过采用主机遥控系统、电站功率管理系统、机舱监测报警系统以及网络通信等技术,将自动化、电气化、信息化和智能化控制技术等船舶前沿科技应用于实船,构建一个满足法国船级社(BV)机舱自动化最高等级AUT-UMS要求的无人机舱系统,以提高远洋渔船的操控性、安全性和可靠性,提升供电系统自动化管理水平,改善作业人员工作环境。对该自动化系统的效果和特点进行分析,结果可为我国远洋渔船自动化系统的研究提供策略和思路。     

A Delphi analysis on green performance evaluation indices for ports in China

This study identified a set of applicable and practical green performance evaluation indices for Chinese ports using the Delphi technique. The research was conducted by targeting three representative Chinese ports in Eastern China: the Shanghai Port, Ningbo Port, and Qingdao Port. An effective expert panel was structured with direct stakeholders related to green performance, which was based on a sufficient consideration of the unique and the special decision-making system for Chinese ports. Twenty-one green performance indices in six dimensions (i.e. liquid pollution management, air pollution management, noise control, low carbon regulations and energy savings, marine biology preservation, and organization and management) were eventually identified through three rounds of iterations. The identified green performance indices for Chinese ports are highly consistent with the Chinese Government’s environmental policies. Compared with European ports, the green port performance indicators in China are not as comprehensive. The indicators that are strictly consistent with national macro policies and the factors that are more easily seen, heard, and felt were perceived to be more important. From an academic perspective, this study offers a new approach for system establishment and green practice criteria exploration and thus provides a significant basis for further green port studies.     

基于HHT和BP神经网络的船舶电力系统故障定位

针对船舶电力系统故障难以精确定位的情况,将Hilbert-Huang变换(HHT)和BP神经网络应用于船舶电力系统故障节点定位。首先,采集各节点电流信号,经过EMD分解得到若干IMF分量,对第一个IMF分量进行Hilbert变换得到其瞬时振幅向量。然后,将各节点的瞬时振幅向量之和作为电流信号的特征量输入到带有动量因子的BP神经网络中进行训练,利用训练好的神经网络进行故障节点定位。最后,通过仿真实验验证了所提方法的有效性。     

Users’ perceptions and willingness to pay in interurban toll roads: identifying differences across regions from a nationwide survey in Spain

Users’ acceptability is considered one of the key drivers for the successful implementation of transport policy measures. This is especially crucial in the case of toll roads since they are financed through drivers’ contributions. Previous literature in this field has mainly focused on measuring users’ attitudes towards urban congestion pricing strategies. However limited research has been developed concerning interurban toll roads. Previous research shows that socioeconomic variables are not conclusive to explain users’ perceptions towards tolls. By contrast, other drivers such as regional differences seem to play a more important role, especially when charging conditions within the same nation greatly vary across regions. This paper analyzes regional differences in users’ attitudes within an asymmetrical distribution of the toll road network across regions. Based on a nationwide survey conducted to road users in interurban toll roads in Spain, we develop both a binomial logit and a censored regression (tobit) model to explore drivers’ perceptions and willingness to pay. The research concludes that users from regions with a more extensive tolled network generally show a more negative attitude towards charges, but not necessarily a lower willingness to pay. The paper also points out that an asymmetrical distribution of toll roads across regions may result in negative perceptions among those users perceiving to be unfairly treated when compared to citizens in other regions.