A mixed Bayesian network for two-dimensional decision modeling of departure time and mode choice

The modeling of travel decision making has been a popular topic in transportation planning. Previous studies focused on random-utility discrete choice models and machine learning methods. This paper proposes a new modeling approach that utilizes a mixed Bayesian network (BN) for travel decision inference. The authors use a predetermined BN structure and calculate priori and posterior probability distributions of the decision alternatives based on the observed explanatory variables. As a “utility-free” decision inference method, the BN model releases the linear structure in the utility function but assumes the traffic level of service variables follow multivariate Gaussian distribution conditional on the choice variable. A real-world case study is conducted by using the regional travel survey data for a two-dimensional decision modeling of both departure time choice and travel mode choice. The results indicate that a two-dimensional mixed BN provides better accuracy than decision tree models and nested logit models. In addition, one can derive continuous elasticity with respect to each continuous explanatory variable for sensitivity analysis. This new approach addresses a research gap in probabilistic travel decision making modeling as well as two-dimensional travel decision modeling.     

隧道照明节能控制系统研究

综合考虑交通量、环境亮度、行车速度、地理环境等因素,基于隧道照明设计与控制的"全局优化"理念,采用"多模式、多等级、智能化、个性化"的控制策略,开发了能够根据公路隧道内外亮度、照度、车流量、车流特点等环境变换因素,自动进行反馈调整隧道内部照明的智能照明控制系统。估算比对同一隧道在使用节能智能控制系统前后年总能耗可知,与原有控制方案相比,节能智能控制系统综合节电30%。     

BFL-RS01改性剂在OGFC混合料中的路用性能研究

本文探讨了国产70#沥青、进口70#沥青、BFL-RS01改性剂、SBS改性沥青改性OGFC混合料性能。研究国产沥青和进口沥青分别与BFL-RS01改性剂复配改性OGFC混合料性能,并与SBS改性OGFC混合料性能对比。结果表明,采用BFL-RS01改性OGFC混合料可以提高OGFC混合料的综合路用性能,耐高温性、抗水损害性要比SBS改性OGFC混合料更加优秀。     

Bicycle mode share in China: a city-level analysis of long term trends

In the past 15 years, cities in China have experienced big changes in socioeconomic and traffic conditions, resulting in a long term change in bicycle use. This study aims to quantify the changes in bicycle mode share in Chinese cities and explore the potential causes. Based on data from 51 cities, it is found that bicycle mode share at the city level decreased gradually in the past. Conventional bicycle mode share decreased with a rate of 3 % per year, but electric bicycle mode share increased with a rate of 2 % per year. The correlations between city features such as demographics and built environments and bicycle mode share at different city sizes are compared. The generalized linear models are estimated to relate the changes in the share of different trip modes to various city-level factors. The results show that the bicycle mode share in a city is impacted by factors including city area size, population density, number of cars, percentage of local road mileage among all roads, and trip purpose. Possible reasons for the changes in bicycle uses in Chinese cities are explored and policy implications are discussed.     

基于标度扩展的AHP在飞机空战效能评估中的应用

阐述了标度扩展AHP法的基本原理和步骤,基于该方法对三种典型战斗机的空战效能进行评估,结果表明,采用标度扩展的AHP法进行效能评估,可以减少计算量,并能提高结果的可信度。     

舰载机箱的磁场屏蔽特性仿真

以往针对机箱电场屏蔽特性的研究较多,而对其磁场屏蔽特性的研究较少。然而,电场和磁场的屏蔽特性并不完全一样。因此,针对舰载机箱所受到的电磁辐射和干扰的威胁特征,基于有限积分技术对典型舰载机箱结构开展了磁场屏蔽特性仿真研究。获取了重要的机箱内部磁场屏蔽效能、箱内磁场分布和电流分布等仿真结果。而且屏蔽效能的仿真结果与IEEE文献中测试与计算结果吻合得很好,充分验证了仿真的有效性。最后,对磁场屏蔽效能、内场分布和表面电流分布进行了分析。特别是对机箱非正面的电流分布给出了合理解释,主要原因是与入射场的极化相关。研究成果对机箱的电磁防护设计提供了有力的技术支撑。     

Air pollution history elucidated from anthropogenic spherules and their magnetic signatures in marine sediments offshore of Southwestern Taiwan

Kaohsiung City and its neighborhood in the southwestern coastal plain of Taiwan have suffered serious air pollution since the region became the largest center for heavy-industry on the island. In order to unravel the air pollution history of the region, four ²¹⁰Pb- and ¹³⁷Cs-dated sediment box cores recovered in 2006 from offshore of this area were chosen for magnetic and petrographic analyses. The data were used to distinguish changes in concentration, composition and grain size of magnetic particles in the sediments due to inputs of anthropogenic magnetic spherules. Sedimentation rates have been reasonably constant for the last one hundred years, except at the core tops which were affected by a turbidite layer induced by a typhoon in 2005. Down-core profiles of mass-specific magnetic susceptibility (χ) and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM) are similar among the cores, and reflect similar trends to magnetic spherule counts. This reveals that χ and SIRM of modern marine sediments can be used as air pollution indicators for nearby industrialized upwind areas. The studied record indicates that industrialization of the area was gradual during 1950–1980 and boomed afterward, resulting in a high production of airborne magnetic spherules, which is consistent with evidence for poor air quality at that time. Optical and scanning electron microscopic (SEM) surveys of magnetic extracts indicate that the magnetic spherules have grain sizes ranging from a few micrometers up to 50 μm and consist mainly of iron oxides with variable Si, Al, and Ca contents. X-ray diffraction analysis on magnetic extracts from different depths in the cores further indicates that magnetite and pyrrhotite, which are derived from terrigenous detritus, form the magnetic constituents of the sediments before the area was industrialized. In contrast, during the industrial boom, anthropogenic magnetite and hematite spherules became the dominant magnetic particles in the sediments. Down-core profiles of hard isothermal remanent magnetization (HIRM) below the turbidite layer also reveal similar trends to the corresponding magnetic spherule counts, which indicate that the concentration of hematite in the sediments is also closely related to the extent of air pollution. In addition, relatively low values of χ_ARM/χ, which are indicative of coarse magnetic grains, started to occur when large magnetite spherules became significant during the industrialized period. The air pollution history elucidated from our sediment core data not only reflects the development of Kaohsiung from a small village to a highly industrialized metropolitan area in the 20th century, but it is also consistent with the most recent air pollution trends revealed by real time air quality measurements of PM₁₀. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of magnetic parameters for delineating the air pollution history of coastal marine sediments down-wind of nearby industrialized regions.     

Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

A new approach for improving the performance of freight train timetabling of a single-track railway system

A new approach for improving the performance of freight train timetabling for single-track railways is proposed. Using the idea of a fixed-block signaling system, we develop a matrix representation to express the occupation of inter- and intra-station tracks by trains illustrating the train blocking time diagram in its entirety. Train departure times, dwell times, and unnecessary stopping are adjusted to reduce average train travel time and single train travel time. Conflicts between successive stations and within stations are identified and solved. A fuzzy logic system is further used to adjust the range of train departure times and checks are made to determine whether dwell times and time intervals can be adjusted for passenger and freight trains at congested stations to minimize train waiting times. By combining manual scheduling expertise with the fuzzy inference method, timetable efficiency is significantly improved and becomes more flexible.     

Tradeoffs among free-flow speed, capacity, cost, and environmental footprint in highway design

This paper investigates differentiated design standards as a source of capacity additions that are more affordable and have smaller aesthetic and environmental impacts than modern expressways. We consider several tradeoffs, including narrow versus wide lanes and shoulders on an expressway of a given total width, and high-speed expressway versus lower-speed arterial. We quantify the situations in which off-peak traffic is sufficiently great to make it worthwhile to spend more on construction, or to give up some capacity, in order to provide very high off-peak speeds even if peak speeds are limited by congestion. We also consider the implications of differing accident rates. The results support expanding the range of highway designs that are considered when adding capacity to ameliorate urban road congestion.