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331.
  总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Loss and damage caused by unscheduled events, especially earthquakes, have sudden and significant impacts not only on the region’s economy where the event occurs but also on other regions. The New Madrid Seismic Zone, located in the center of the United States, could have great impacts on economic activities related to this area, if a major earthquake occurred. Based on the 1993 US Commodity Flow Survey [US Commodity Flow Survey, 1993. Available from: <http://www.bts.gov/ntda/cfs/prod.html>], more than 42% of total commodity flows in the US are related to the greater Midwest, which includes the New Madrid Seismic Zone. If a catastrophic earthquake occurred in this area, the indirect damages could spread far beyond the region, and could have sizable impacts on other regions. A model of interregional commodity flows, incorporating regional input–output relationships, and the corresponding transportation network flows, was applied to assess the economic impacts of such an unexpected event. The economic impacts from the event are described for three hypothetical scenarios, analyzing the magnitude and the extent of the direct and indirect impacts. These analytical results may be used to propose strategic management of the recovery and reconstruction efforts after the event.  相似文献   
332.
Meherwan P Boyce 《经济导报》2007,(1):12-15,17-18
复合循环发电站在二十世纪九十年代都是矿石燃料发电站,丽在新千年的早期它将占据主导地位。它们代替了大型的蒸汽轮机发电站,而蒸汽轮机发电站从二十世纪五十年代到八十年代都是主要的矿石燃料发电站。复合循环发电站的出现是在二十世纪五十年代中期,到二十世纪九十年代早期它们因自身的高能力和高效率燃气轮机盛行起来.  相似文献   
333.
    
Over the years Singapore has introduced several fiscal measures aimed at restraining car ownership and usage and thus preventing traffic congestion. Two new methods have recently been added: the Vehicle Quota System which limits the number of new vehicles registered each month and the Weekend Car Scheme which allows cars to be registered for use during off-peak hours only, with substantial financial savings to the owners. The Vehicle Quota System involves monthly public tenders for Certificates of Entitlement needed to register new cars. Over the past 30 months the cost of COE's has been increasing and now constitutes between 12% and 27% of the on-the-road price of a new car. The fluctuations in the COE premiums for different vehicle categories are presented and analysed. The initial problems and the recent modifications made as a result of public pressure are also described. It seems that the increases in COE premiums are likely to continue under strong economic growth conditions as the demand for cars is more income-elastic than price-elastic.  相似文献   
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Interest in alternative behavioural paradigms to random utility maximization (RUM) has existed ever since the dominance of the RUM formulation. One alternative is known as random regret minimization (RRM), which suggests that when choosing between alternatives, decision makers aim to minimize anticipated regret. Although the idea of regret is not new, its incorporation into the same discrete choice framework of RUM is very recent. This paper is the first to apply the RRM‐model framework to model choice amongst durable goods. Specifically, we estimate and compare the RRM and RUM models in a stated choice context of choosing amongst vehicles fuelled with petrol, diesel and hybrid (associated with specific levels of fuel efficiency and engine capacity). The RRM model is found to achieve a marginally better fit (using a non‐nested test of differences) than its equally parsimonious RUM counterpart. As a second contribution, we derive a formulation for regret‐based elasticities and compare utility‐based and regret‐based elasticities in the context of stated vehicle type choices. We find that in the context of our choice data, mean estimates of elasticities are different for many of the attributes and alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
336.
    
David Metz 《运输评论》2013,33(2):243-246
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337.
    
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338.
This paper investigates the stability of the classical car-following model (for example, Chandler et al., Operations Research, 6, 165–184, 1958; Herman et al., Operations Research, 7, 86–106, 1959; Wilhelm and Schmidt, Transportation Engineering Journal (ASCE) 99, 923–933, 1973). Conditions for local and asymptotic stability as defined in the references cited are established for the linear model. These differ from those in the literature in two ways. First, it will be shown that, in the autonomous model when the product of the coefficient of proportionality α and the reaction time τ is less than or equal to 1/e, there exist oscillatory solutions with higher frequencies than 2π, although there are none with lower frequencies. Secondly, asymptotic stability is considered along with local stability. The derived condition for asymptotic stability is both necessary and sufficient. In addition, the condition depends on the frequency of the forcing term, with the sufficient condition for the asymptotic stability found in the literature being included as a special case. The nonlinear model is considered by linearization and numerical integrations. Some practical values of parameters are tested for the stability of the model. The analyses in this paper are extended to consider different values of α and τ for different drivers in the line.  相似文献   
339.
Marine food web dynamics are determined by interactions within and between species and between species and their environment. Global change directly affects abiotic conditions and living organisms, impinging on all trophic levels in food webs. Different groups of marine researchers traditionally study different aspects of these changes. However, over medium to long time scales perturbations affecting food webs need to be considered across the full range from nutrients to top predators. Studies of end-to-end marine food webs not only span organism sizes and trophic levels, but should also help align multidisciplinary research to common goals and perspectives. Topics are described that bridge disciplinary gaps and are needed to develop new understanding of the reciprocal impacts of global change on marine food webs and ocean biogeochemistry. These include (1) the effects of nutrients on biomass and production, (2) the effects of varying element ratios on food web structure and food quality, (3) bulk flows of energy and material in food webs and their efficiencies of transfer, (4) the ecological effects of species richness and the roles of microbial organisms, (5) the role of feeding behaviour in food web dynamics and trophic controls, (6) the spatial dynamics of communities and links between different food webs, (7) the combined effects of body size and behaviour in determining dynamics of food webs, and (8) the extent to which the ability of marine organisms (and communities) to adapt will influence food web dynamics. An overriding issue that influences all topics concerns the time and space scales of ecosystem variability. Threads link different nodes of information among various topics, emphasizing the importance of tackling food web studies with a variety of modelling approaches and through a combination of field and experimental studies with a strong comparative approach.  相似文献   
340.
上世纪60年代正是欧洲风生水起的黄金十年,伦敦是当之无愧的流行文化中心。每一款英系车的推出必有名人相伴:低调实用的迷你车有喜剧演员Peter Sellers和女星Britt Ekland保驾;一流的捷豹E-Type有超模Twiggy和披头士成员之一George Hamison护航。然而,Reliant Scimitar GTE却只有一位名人随行——尊贵的安妮公主殿下。  相似文献   
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