Expert versus lay perception of the risks of motor vehicle-generated air pollution

We explore whether experts’ perceptions of risk differ systematically from those of the public. To do so, we examine whether experts and non-experts make different location decisions in response to ground-level ozone pollution, one of the byproducts of motorized transportation. Physicians are experts in the field of health, and thus may differ from their lay neighbors in their knowledge of and attitude toward pollution and its health risks. If so, it is possible that they value locations with cleaner air differently than their neighbors do. Here we use hedonic price models based on willingness to bear housing and commute burdens to examine the differential valuation of clean air by doctors and laypeople in the Los Angeles region between 1980 and 2000. We find no evidence that doctors are more or less more willing than comparable lay residents to trade off time or money to live in cleaner-air neighborhoods.     

An automatic segmentation procedure for studying variations in mode choice behaviour

Urban areas are very complex and heterogeneous in terms of their population composition and activity systems. The transport system, modal choices and service levels available to the population also varies considerably across space and time. These similarities and differences in choices and levels of explanatory variables facing individual tripmakers have to be explicitly considered in any study of transport behvior. The common practice has been to include user attributes, in addition to the system characteristics, in the modal utility functions to help capture differences in choice behavior across individuals. However, it could well be that the mode-choice behavior of a segment of the population is fundamentally different from other segments of the population. In view of this, some studies have applied segmentation schemes to help identify the subgroups of presumably different travel responses. Typically, such schemes have been based on stratification of the population by a single variable, chosen either based on a priori notions or one-way cross tabulations. These have their shortcomings. Thus, this paper develops an analytical procedure that simultaneously deals with level of service, socioeconomic and spatial factors to determine the relative role each plays in determining travel behavior. The procedure is applied to data from the Toronto region to illustrate its use.     

The sequenced activity mobility simulator (SAMS): an integrated approach to modeling transportation, land use and air quality

The persistence of environmental problems in urban areas and the prospect of increasing congestion have precipitated a variety of new policies in the USA, with concomitant analytical and modeling requirements for transportation planning. This paper introduces the Sequenced Activity-Mobility Simulator (SAMS), a dynamic and integrated microsimulation forecasting system for transportation, land use and air quality, designed to overcome the deficiencies of conventional four-step travel demand forecasting systems. The proposed SAMS framework represents a departure from many of the conventional paradigms in travel demand forecasting. In particular, it aims at replicating the adaptative dynamics underlying transportation phenomena; explicitly incorporates the time-of-day dimension; represents human behavior based on the satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, principle; and endogenously forecasts socio-demographic, land use, vehicle fleet mix, and other variables that have traditionally been projected externally to be input into the forecasting process.     

Modelling daily activity program generation considering within-day and day-to-day dynamics in activity-travel behaviour

This paper presents a comprehensive econometric modelling framework for daily activity program generation. It is for day-specific activity program generations of a week-long time span. Activity types considered are 15 generic categories of non-skeletal and flexible activities. Under the daily time budget and non-negativity of participation rate constraints, the models predict optimal sets of frequencies of the activities under consideration (given the average duration of each activity type). The daily time budget considers at-home basic needs and night sleep activities together as a composite activity. The concept of composite activity ensures the dynamics and continuity of time allocation and activity/travel behaviour by encapsulating altogether the activity types that are not of our direct interest in travel demand modelling. Workers’ total working hours (skeletal activity and not a part of the non-skeletal activity time budget) are considered as a variable in the models to accommodate the scheduling effects inside the generation model of non-skeletal activities. Incorporation of previous day’s total executed activities as variables introduces day-to-day dynamics into the activity program generation models. The possibility of zero frequency of any specific activity under consideration is ensured by the Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions used for formulating the model structure. Models use the concept of random utility maximization approach to derive activity program set. Estimations of the empirical models are done using the 2002–2003 CHASE survey data set collected in Toronto.

A meta-model of vehicle ownership choice parameters

This paper builds a meta-model of vehicle ownership choice parameters to predict how their values might vary across extended periods as a function of macroeconomic variables. Multinomial logit models of vehicle ownership are estimated from repeated cross-sectional data between 1971 and 1996 for large urban centers in Ontario. Three specifications are tested: a varying constants (VC) model where the alternative specific constants are allowed to vary each year; a varying scales (VS) model where the scale parameter varies instead; and a varying scales and constants model. The estimated parameters are then regressed on macroeconomic variables (e.g., employment rate, gas prices, etc.). The regressions yield good fit and statistically significant results, suggesting that changes in the macroeconomic environment influence household decision making over time, and that macroeconomic information could potentially help predict how model parameters evolve. This implies that the common assumption of holding parameters constant across forecast horizons could potentially be relaxed. Furthermore, using a separate validation dataset, the predictive power of the VC and VS models outperform conventional approaches providing further evidence that pooling data from multiple periods could also produce more robust models.     

Comparative performance analysis of European airports by means of extended data envelopment analysis

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has become an established approach for analyzing and comparing efficiency results of corporate organizations or economic agents. It has also found wide application in comparative studies on airport efficiency. The standard DEA approach to comparative airport efficiency analysis has two feeble elements, viz. a methodological weakness and a substantive weakness. The methodological weakness originates from the choice of uniform efficiency improvement assessment, whereas the substantive weakness in airport efficiency analysis concerns the insufficient attention for short‐term and long‐term adjustment possibilities in the production inputs determining airport efficiency. The present paper aims to address both flaws by doing the following: (i) designing a data‐instigated distance friction minimization (DFM) model as a generalization of the standard Banker–Charnes–Cooper model with a view to the development of a more appropriate efficiency improvement projection model in the Banker–Charnes–Cooper version of DEA and (ii) including as factor inputs also lumpy or rigid factors that are characterized by short‐term indivisibility or inertia (and hence not suitable for short‐run flexible adjustment in new efficiency stages), as is the case for runways of airports. This so‐called fixed factor case will be included in the DFM submodel of the DEA. This extended DEA—with a DFM and a fixed factor component—will be applied to a comparative performance analysis of several major airports in Europe. Finally, our comparative study on airport efficiency analysis will be extended by incorporating also the added value of the presence of shopping facilities at airports for their relative economic performance. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

星期四计划——关于城市交通的新畅通计划

简要介绍了关于城市创新策略计划的提案.这项提案旨在解决城市所面临的双重挑战:如何让城市变得更加畅通,同时又能改善环境质量并提高人们居住、工作和生活的质量.为了进一步说明,通过对EcoPlan国际畅通项目的观察总结,提出了6个论点,说明为何需要采取新的综合方案来应对大多数城市所面临的挑战.提出了一个旨在改变城市或邻近地区如何对待小汽车使用的方案,即在精心的准备下过一天没有小汽车的日子,然后对结果进行反思.此方案称为"星期四计划".该提案强调了:明确这一天的基本目标;精心准备,努力达成共识;对结果进行严格检测,以便做好跟踪和调整工作.希望可以鼓励不同观点,获得进一步的改进意见,促进各个地方制定具体跟进措施和协作项目.     

Advances in population synthesis: fitting many attributes per agent and fitting to household and person margins simultaneously

Agent-based microsimulation models of transportation, land use or other socioeconomic processes require an initial synthetic population derived from census data, conventionally created using the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure. This paper introduces a novel computational method that allows the synthesis of many more attributes and finer attribute categories than previous approaches, both of which are long-standing limitations discussed in the literature. Additionally, a new approach is used to fit household and person zonal attribute distributions simultaneously. This technique was first adopted to address limitations specific to Canadian census data, but could also be useful in U.S. and other applications. The results of each new method are evaluated empirically in terms of goodness-of-fit.     

A Model for Determining Rider Induced Energy Losses in Bicycle Suspension Systems

The energy dissipated by the suspension systems used for off-road bicycles is a major concern due to the limited power source in cycling. Rider induced energy losses are those that arise from the muscular action of the rider. The purpose of this study was to develop and verify a dynamic model of a seated cyclist riding an off-road bicycle up a smooth road. With the absence of terrain irregularities, all suspension motion was rider induced. Knowing the stiffness and dissipative characteristics of the suspension elements, the power dissipated by the suspensions was calculated.

Simulation results were compared to suspension deflections that were experimentally measured for a cyclist riding a commercially available dual suspension bicycle up a 6% grade at 6.5m/s. For this particular case, no fork motion was observed in the experiments which was consistent with the simulation results. For the rear suspension, the mean and amplitude of the largest harmonic were experimentally determined to be 6.6 and ±2.7 mm respectively. Simulation results were within 0.7mm of the mean and within 0.3mm of the amplitude. The only major discrepancy between the experiments and the simulations was the presence of a phase lag in the simulation results which was attributed to inter-subject variability. The power dissipated by the rear suspension was calculated to be 6.9 Watts or 1.3% of the total power input by the rider. Given the grade and forward velocity, this translated into an equivalent mass of 1.8 kg. Thus, the bicycle appeared to be roughly 12% heavier than it actually was.