考虑客流引导和小群体行为的地铁车站疏散模型

地铁车站疏散过程客流引导及小群体行为均对人员疏散行为及疏散结果产生较大影响. 为更加有效地模拟真实疏散情况,研究了考虑客流引导和小群体行为的社会力模型. 该模型通过分析小群体运动特征及客流引导策略对行人期望速度的影响,对既有社会力模型进行修正;针对地铁车站站台人员疏散过程,设计更贴近实际情况的多智能体感知及决策流程,构建基于多智能体技术的疏散仿真模型. 以北京地铁西直门2号线站台为研究对象展开研究,结果表明客流引导及小群体效应对疏散时间、疏散效率、瓶颈区域及绕行距离均有显著影响:客流引导可提高疏散效率18%～45%,小群体行为则会增加绕行距离17%.      

就地冷再生技术在市政道路改造中的应用

以山西省太原市市政道路改造工程为依托,维特根泡沫沥青就地冷再生施工技术为基础,结合太原市学府街沥青旧路面的实际路况,设计了旧路面大修方案,进行了泡沫沥青混合料的配合比设计,介绍了泡沫沥青就地冷再生基层的施工工艺、施工组织。     

内皮素-1诱导大鼠血管平滑肌细胞产生C-反应蛋白的作用

目的观察内皮素-1(ET-1)诱导血管平滑肌细胞(VSMCs)产生C-反应蛋白(CRP)的作用及其机制。方法培养大鼠VSMCs,以不同浓度ET-1刺激VSMCs,并用ETA拮抗剂BQ123、抗氧化剂PDTC、p38MAPK抑制剂SB203580及ETB阻断剂BQ788进行干预,免疫细胞化学法及半定量逆转录聚合酶链反应(RT-PCR)法分别测定不同浓度及不同干预因素下VSMCs中CRP蛋白及mRNA的表达。结果 ET-1能刺激VSMCs CRP蛋白及mRNA的表达增强,其效应呈浓度依赖性;BQ123、PDTC及SB203580能明显减少ET-1诱导的大鼠VSMCs CRP蛋白及mRNA的表达,而BQ788对此作用无明显影响。结论 ET-1通过ETA、活性氧(ROS)、p38MAPK诱导大鼠VSMCs产生CRP。     

级配碎石基层沥青路面力学响应的灰关联分析

文章采用美国KENPAVE软件对比分析了2种典型级配碎石基层路面结构在不同厚度条件下的路表弯沉、沥青层底拉应变、土基顶面压应变等力学指标,并采用灰关联法分析了各力学指标对结构影响的显著程度。研究表明:倒装路面结构形式优于柔性基层路面结构形式,且碎石夹层厚度为15cm左右时,结构形式最优。     

Study on launch dynamics of the tank marching fire

As an army main battle equipment, it is required that the tank should have high firing accuracy and high first round hit probability during marching. The initial disturbance of the projectile is the premier factor that takes effect on the marching fire accuracy of the tank. And the marching fire accuracy of the tank depends on the launch dynamics behaviors of the tank. In this paper, the launch dynamics theory of a tank marching fire is studied, and its launch dynamics model is established. Based on the transfer matrix method for multibody system(MSTMM) and the automatic deduction theorem of overall transfer equations, the overall transfer equation and the overall transfer matrix of a tank multibody system are deduced; the launch dynamics equations of the tank marching fire are deduced, and the dynamic response of the tank system, the motion of projectile in barrel, the initial disturbance of the projectile and the vertical target dispersion are exactly simulated; meanwhile, the results of simulation are verified by tests. This work provides both theoretical foundation and simulation approaches for improving the marching fire accuracy of the tank.     

基于Adaptive Lasso与RF的航班运行风险预测改进研究

为了解决航班运行风险高维数组运算过于复杂的问题,同时为防止模型过度拟合影响预测精度,基于中国民航局发布的风险评估体系,以某航450组真实航班数据为标准样本,首先使用自适应套索算法（Adaptive Lasso）进行降维,从63项风险自变量中筛选出15项独立变量;然后,使用随机森林算法(Random Forest,RF)进行防过拟合处理,结果显示当使用重要度排序前12项变量拟合时,结果误差达到最小值,即得到最终预测指标;最后,构建Adaptive Lasso和RF的二阶段混合模型,同时选取主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)、径向基函数(Radial Basis Function,RBF)网络、支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)3种对比方法,使用十折交叉验证精度.结果表明：Adaptive Lasso方法在筛选掉48项指标后,结果精度未见下降;经RF处理后4种方法评估精度均大于未处理前;Adaptive Lasso-RF混合模型的预测准确率和稳定性均优于PCA、RBF神经网络和SVM等方法.综上说明混合模型实现了有效降维和防过拟合,可大幅提升预测精度,用于解决航班风险预测问题可行并有效.     

海战场环境中基于射线的碰撞检测算法研究

在海战场环境中,运动的物体之间可能会发生碰撞,文章针对海战场环境中各种运动物体的特点,提出不同类型包围盒的选择原则;针对物体的运动状态,采用基于射线的相交测试方法,提高碰撞检测的效率。     

信息化战场条件下复杂电磁环境仿真建模技术

在分析信息化战场条件下复杂电磁环境特点的基础上,描述了复杂电磁环境对作战的主要影响,提出了复杂电磁环境的构建方法,重点阐述了复杂电磁环境仿真涉及的主要数学模型.     

Dynamics of inorganic nutrient species in the Bohai seawaters

Within the frame of a Sino-German Joint Research Program, two cruises of “R/V Dong Fang Hong 2” were carried out in September–October 1998 and April–May 1999, respectively, to understand the dynamics of nutrients in the Bohai. Nutrient species (NO₃⁻, NO₂⁻, NH₄⁺, PO₄³⁻ and SiO₃²⁻) are determined colorimetrically on board for five anchor and 30 grid stations. In situ incubation experiments are performed to determine planktonic nutrient uptake and benthic exchange flux. Nutrient concentrations display short-term variability and seasonal change in the Bohai, with higher levels in shallow coastal waters than in the Central Bohai. The influence of riverine discharge on nutrient levels can be seen from salinity isopleths, nutrient distribution and species ratios. Near-bottom (nb) waters have similar nutrient concentrations as to the surface waters in the Central Bohai, whereas stratification takes place in the Bohai Strait and North Yellow Sea. In situ incubation experiments provide evidence that the uptake ratio (i.e. N, P) by phytoplankton is proportional to the ratios among nutrient species in ambient waters. Based on the data of this study and previously publications, a preliminary estimate of nutrient budgets via riverine input and atmospheric deposition is established. The results indicate that atmospheric deposition gains importance over rivers in delivering nutrients into the Bohai and sustain the new production, following recent decrease in riverine inflow caused by drought periods in North China and damming practices. A historical review of nutrient data indicates that concentrations of nitrogen increase and phosphorus and silica decrease in the Central Bohai over last 40 years. This potentially has an important influence on the health of ecosystem in Bohai (e.g. food web and community structure), though further study is needed to examine the scenario in more detail.     

基于PMS理论的常规潜艇任务可靠性研究

针对常规潜艇功能复杂、任务多变的特点,将多阶段任务系统(phased mission system,PMS)理论引入到其任务可靠性的分析中.深入分析常规潜艇的鱼雷攻击任务,建立任务可靠性模型,用马尔可夫过程法进行了任务可靠度计算,为常规潜艇任务可靠性模型的建立提供一种新方法.