US shipping policy under conditions of a new world economic and political environment

The maritime policy of the US has evolved over more than 100 years from the support of US shipping through mail and fleet auxiliary contracts before the turn of the century, to the present array of direct and indirect Government aids and regulations based on the assumption that a strong maritime industry composed of both US-flag shipping and US-shipbuilding capacity is essential for the economic well-being and defence of the country. Notwithstanding massive direct and indirect aid to the US merchant marine, amounting to well over a billion dollars a year in recent years, US shipping and shipbuilding has declined dramatically and now comprises less than 3% of world shipping. Only 2.8% of US foreign trade by volume and 6% by value is today carried in US flag ships. Government aids constitute well over 33% of total revenues of US-flag shipping.

The traditional argument for US Government support has been the need for cost parity to permit US-flag shipping to compete effectively in international trade against foreign shipping serving the same routes with presumably lower operating costs. This argument is difficult to sustain today, as vessel costs of many other industrialized nations are now about equal to those of US-flag ships.

In 1970 the US enacted a new, vastly more liberal, maritime act for the support of the US maritime industry. Notwithstanding its even more liberal terms and elimination of the strict cost-parity interpretation, the US maritime industry continues its decline. The recent bankruptcy of two old, established subsidized shipping companies has caused tremors in the industry, yet no new ideas, policies, or plans seem to be forthcoming. It is the objective of this paper to study the development and effects of various historic US Government policies relating to the support of the US maritime industry, and evaluate the positions taken by proponents or opponents of the maritime policy leading to the policy development.

The decision processes are studied by evaluating literature on the evolution of Congressional, administration, industry, and labour interest and positions on the issue of Government aid to the maritime industry. The impact and effectiveness of various elements of past and present US maritime policy is evaluated in relation to the stated objectives. The alternatives to these policies are reviewed in the light of the changing US position in international trade, military strategy, and political objectives. In addition the effectiveness of the present and alternative policies is evaluated as it is and will be affected by changing technology in use, composition of ownership, and operations of US-flag shipping and shipbuilding.     

Seasonal variability of fractionated phytoplankton, biomass and primary production in the Straits of Magellan

The results on the distribution of phytoplankton biomass (expressed as Chla) and primary production (¹⁴C assimilation), during three oceanographic cruises carried out during Austral spring and at the end of the summer and the autumn in the Straits of Magellan, suggest a strong variability of trophic levels for this ecosystem.Seasonal evolution of the biomass concentration goes from the spring maximum of 2.33 μg/l through a sharp decrease, 0.49 μg/l, observed at the end of summer, until the minimum of 0.24 μg/l measured during the autumn.The trophic conditions are dependent on hydrographic, meteo-climatic and geo-morphological characteristics: at the Atlantic entrance and between the two Angosturas the strong mixing of water column limit the development of phytoplankton; at the Western opening and along the Pacific arm the complex exchange mechanisms with the ocean, the glacio-fluvial contribution and the presence of a thermohaline front near the Isla Carlos III influence both biomass and primary production distributions. The maximum values are reached in the Central Zone (Paso Ancho) characterized by high stability of the water column.Primary production ranged from a minimum of 12.3 to a maximum of 125.9 mgC m⁻² h⁻¹. The overall trend seems to be a progressive and simultaneous increase from the Pacific and Atlantic openings to the Central Zone of Paso Ancho where the maximum value was reached. In general, biomass and primary production distributions correspond quite well except for the area of Isla Carlos III where biological and chemico-physical causes tend to limit ¹⁴C assimilation.Contribution of pico-phytoplankton (< 2 μm) to total biomass appears to be time dependent: in the blooms observed during spring a very modest incidence (< 6%) was observed whereas became more (> 50%) during the summer-autumn seasons when total biomass was decreasing.Within the Straits, at the end of summer, the contribution of pico-phytoplankton primary production is 59%, whereas nano and microplankton contribute 39% and 2%, respectively. At the oceanic external stations the photosynthetic activity of the bigger size-fraction (> 2 μm) is predominant (> 50%).These findings support the hypothesis that the pico-phytoplankton ( < 2 μm) is substantially constant, whereas temporal variations are due to the larger (> 10 μm) cells only.     

Using demand elasticities from disaggregate mode choice models

Three of the most highly regarded disaggregate mode split models incorporate very different estimates of the responsiveness, or elasticity, of mode choice to changes in auto travel times and costs. These differences appear to be due in part to the varying specifications used by the model, and particularly whether certain variables (such as a dummy variable for CBD destinations or automobile ownership) are included in addition to the more traditional variables (such as travel time, cost, and household income). More research is needed on the implications of the theory of traveler choices for model specification and the effect of alternative, but theoretically justifiable, specifications on elasticity estimates. Until this research reduces our uncertainty about the elasticity of demand, analysts evaluating transportation policies should assess the sensitivity of their results to the range of plausible elasticities or models.     

满足安全性、用户效益和价格要求的奥地利联邦铁路BR 4023/4024型电动车组

一方面由于近郊客运的资金减少,另一方面由于安全性要求的提高,新造动车越来越受到压低价格的困扰.同时运营者和旅客又希望新车有更好的舒适性(如低地板上下车区、空调设备),因此要求制造厂在考虑现代化动车的最佳性能参数时,能够既降低车辆成本又满足现代化的要求.Talent动车一族的模块化设计提供了高度舒适且市场价格低廉的最现代化技术.这种成功的设计和理念已在不同用户的350辆Talent车辆上得到了证实.     

Impact of proposed federal limits on US bagged food aid shipments: reduction in MSF carrier profits—a risk assessment 1

This paper is a stochastic risk simulation of the impact of proposed federal tonnage limits on US Maritime Security Fleet (MSF) bagged food aid shipments. Only MSF (i.e. federally subsidized carriers/vessels for war, or emergencies) and non-MSF US carriers (therefore, at competitive disadvantage) can compete for such shipments—representing an indirect subsidy to both groups. To compensate, US Congress proposed a financial penalty (loss of voyage subsidy) on MSF carriers for food aid above a certain limit. Accordingly, certain carriers will be policy 'winners' (non-MSF—larger food aid shipments), and others 'losers' (MSF). By simulating loss-minimizing economic behaviour by MSF carriers—using five stochastic factors—I obtain losses substantially below those claimed by the MSF owners.

Simulated annual-average MSF profits reduction is $3.5 million—within a large confidence interval; if no carriers surrender their subsidies (as claimed by MSF owners), a reduction of $6.0 million. Only 16% of annual MSF voyages are affected by a 2,500-ton limit (3%; 5,000-ton limit). Minimizing losses, 25 (of 41 affected) annual MSF voyages replace 38,000 tons of food aid with 23,000 tons of other cargo—forgoing $2.1 million in yearly direct subsidies. Two assumptions explain most of this simulated loss reduction.     

Linear probit models: Statistical properties and improved estimation methods

The multinomial probit model is a statistical tool that is well suited to analyze some transportation problems. Modal split, gap acceptance, and route choice are some examples of application contexts. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of its statistical properties and an estimation method for the trinomial case. In the statistical part of the paper it is shown that for multinomial probit models with specifications that are linear in the parameters, the global maximum of the log-likelihood function is consistent if the data do not exhibit multicollinearity as defined in the text. For the special case with three alternatives, lack of multicollinearity is also shown to guarantee asymptotic efficiency and normality, and the uniqueness of any root of the likelihood equations. In addition, it is also shown that for the trinomial probit model certain goodness-of-it measures and test statistics can be easily calculated. The methods part of the paper introduces an estimation process that solves the likelihood equations using a special purpose table of the bivariate normal distribution and analytical derivatives of the log-likelihood function. The method is very accurate, can be applied to nonlinear specifications, and is considerably faster than current computer programs. For linear specifications, the method can be mathematically proven to converge if the log-likelihood equations have a root.     

A New Wheel/Rail Spatially Dynamic Coupling Model and its Verification

Based on the theory of vehicle-track coupling dynamics, a new wheel/rail spatially dynamic coupling model is established in this paper. In consideration of rail lateral, vertical and torsion vibrations and track irregularities, the wheel/rail contact geometry, the wheel/rail normal contact force and the wheel/rail tangential creep force are solved in detail. In the new wheel/rail model, the assumption that wheel contacts rail rigidly and wheel always contacts rail is eliminated. Finally, by numeric simulation comparison with international well-known software NUCARS, comparison with vehicle-track vertical coupling model, and comparison with running test results by China Academy of Railway Sciences, the new wheel/rail spatially dynamic coupling model is shown to be correct and effective.     

An analysis of elevator operation in moderate height buildings—II: Multiple elevators

Deterministic approximations for elevator trip times are applied to a system of m elevators. Comparisons of in-system time of passengers are made for elevators which are (a) physically separated, (b) ideally controlled, (c) zoned, or (d) uncontrolled. A more detailed study is then made of in-system passenger time for a pair of elevators subject to a minimum headway control at the lobby. Comparisons are made between rather primitive analytic estimates and simulation results.The main conclusion is that control of headways so as to prevent pairing is of doubtful value. At low traffic it is usually better to use no control; for higher traffic it is better to zone the building and have each elevator serve separate floors.     

Co-operation among CMEA member countries in maritime transport

This paper highlights some of the major activities in developing an appropriate framework and modalities of co-operation among CMEA member countries in maritime transport. These include the working out of various basic documents determining objectives, directions and methods of co-operation. Particular attention is devoted to the Comprehensive Programme for the Further Extension and Improvement of Co-operation and the Development of Socialist Economic Integration of the CMEA Member Countries and to the first inter-governmental Agreement on Co-operation in Merchant Shipping. Relevant activities of the CMEA are described, in particular, in the fields of joint planning and chartering, as well as its mechanisms for developing and promoting co-operation.     

Dynamic Interaction of Railway Systems with Large Bridges

In this paper have been described

- railway runability problems on large span bridges;

- the state-of-art of the methodologies adopted for a systematic analysis of the dynamic behaviour of railway vehicles running on a deformable structure, with particular reference to large span suspension bridges;

- some meaningful experimental and analytical results, related to railway runability of large span bridges.