Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings

This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns might also cause infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety by increasing accident frequency but decreasing severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport.     

Severity of injury resulting from pedestrian–vehicle crashes: What can we learn from examining the built environment?

This paper examines the impact of personal and environmental characteristics on severity of injuries sustained in pedestrian–vehicle crashes using a generalized ordered probit model. The data covers 2000–2004 of pedestrian–vehicle crashes taken from police incident reports for Baltimore City and supplemented with local land use, urban form and transportation information specific to the individual crash locations. The results on personal and behavioral variables confirm previous findings. Women pedestrians involved in crashes tend to be injured less frequently than their male counterparts; children have an increased likelihood of sustaining injuries and older persons are more likely to be fatally injured. Pedestrians who cross against the traffic signal, are not in a crosswalk and are involved in a crash after dark are associated with greater injury risk. Of the built environment policy variables of interest, transit access and greater pedestrian connectivity, such as central city areas, are significant and negatively associated with injury severity. These results suggest that the environmental conditions should be given more scrutiny and be an important consideration when evaluating and planning for pedestrian safety.     

交通技工学校学生厌学现象分析及对策研究

文章针对交通技工学校学生厌学现象,从社会、家庭、学校、学生自身等方面深入分析了学生厌学的原因,提出了解决厌学问题的对策与措施。     

Real-Time Fault Diagnosis for Gas Turbine Blade Based on Output-Hidden Feedback Elman Neural Network

In order to remotely monitor and maintain large-scale complex equipment in real time, China Telecom plans to create a total solution that integrates remote data collection, transmission, storage, analysis and prediction. This solution can provide manufacturers with proactive, systematic, integrated operation and maintenance service, and the data analysis and health forecasting are the most important part. This paper conducts health management for the turbine blades. Elman neural network, and improved Elman neural network, i.e., outputhidden feedback (OHF) Elman neural network are studied as the main research methods. The results verify the applicability of OHF Elman neural network.     

车身壁板自由阻尼层稳健性优化设计

在车身壁板自由阻尼层的优化设计中,提出了考虑阻尼材料参数不确定性波动的稳健性优化设计方法。首先,在车身防火墙、地板和顶棚等区域全敷阻尼材料;其次,以等效辐射声功率(ERP)为优化目标对阻尼层布局进行拓扑优化并验证优化效果;最后,以阻尼层厚度为随机设计变量,损耗因子和弹性模量为随机变量,质量最小为优化目标,并结合径向基函数(RBF)近似模型、蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS)和序列二次规划算法(SQP)对阻尼层进行6σ稳健性优化设计。结果表明,优化后车身自由阻尼层的总质量减少了50.45%,并且车身结构噪声性能达到了6σ质量水平,实现了保证车身轻量化要求下的阻尼层稳健性优化的目标。     

浅谈重卡进气系统发展趋势

随着国家对于节能减排的重视程度日益增强,相关法规对整车的排放性能、能耗水平的要求不断提高。进气系统对动力性、经济性、排放性能都有较大影响,因此进气系统的设计是否合理对整车性能能否达成有较大影响。文章以重卡进气系统为例,介绍了进气系统的作用,结构组成,近年来应用的新技术以及未来的发展趋势,文章对进气系统的设计具有一定指导作用。     

国内燃料电池电堆技术进展综述

国际氢能与燃料电池汽车大会是国内燃料电池行业举办的国际一流的年度行业盛会,聚集全世界氢能与燃料电池技术的开发者、燃料电池汽车制造商、氢能燃料电池领域投资者和政府政策的制定者,携手促进氢能及燃料电池汽车的商业化发展。本文以第四届氢能与燃料电池汽车大会内容为基础,结合目前行业发展现状对国内燃料电池电堆、膜电极以及双极板的技术进展和发展趋势进行了简要阐述。     

Investigating the capacity of continuous household travel surveys in capturing the temporal rhythms of travel demand

Transportation - Continuous household travel surveys have been identified as a potential replacement for traditional one-off cross-sectional surveys. Many regions around the world have either...     

Investigating the influence of assigning a higher priority to scheduling work and school activities in the activity-based models on the simulated travel/activity patterns

Transportation - Two dynamic, gap-based activity scheduling models are tested by applying a short-run microsimulation approach to replicate workers’ travel/activity patterns over a 1-week...