Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

Prediction of ship brittle fracture casualty rates by a probabilistic method

It has been proposed that grade A should be replaced with a tougher steel for ship construction. This recommendation is not supported by casualty statistics. Brittle fractures have decreased from once every 10 ship years at the time of the Liberty ships, to once every 100 ship years in the 1950s, and now stand at around once every 10,000 ship years. The authors have developed a probabilistic fracture mechanics approach indexed to the Charpy 27 Joule temperature, T_27J. This is used here to analyse the Liberty ship failures. Comparison with a databank of T_27J values for grade A steel spanning 1920 to 1995 suggests that the Liberty ship steel was unusually brittle. The probability analysis shows good agreement between predicted and observed fracture casualty rates for the Liberty ships and helps explain why brittle fractures are now uncommon in grade A steel ships.     

Perceptions of new electronic media for business communication

A model of communications media choice in business organizations is formulated based upon the results of exploratory interviews and the consumer choice literature. Choice is modelled as a function of organizational characteristics, individual characteristics, communication activity characteristics, communication initiator-recipient relationships and perceptions and feelings about available media. Hypotheses concerning media perceptions are developed from the exploratory interviews and tested using survey results from two firms in the Chicago region. The methodology developed in this research provides a useful approach to exploring preferences for and choices of communication media. As a paradigm for future research, it can be used to extend our understanding of communications media usage.     

Freight transportation demand: A survey of recent econometric studies

This paper surveys econometric studies of freight transportation demand which have been published since the mid-1970s. It describes the variables, data sources, and estimation procedures utilized by the studies. In addition, it summarizes their statistical results. The studies included in this survey typically accounted for freight rates and service characteristics (e.g., transit time and reliability). Data sources often varied across the studies.Based on the data they utilized, the surveyed studies are classified as either aggregate or disaggregate. The data in the aggregate studies consist of information on total flows by modes at the regional or national level, while the data in the disaggregate studies pertain to individual shipments. The earlier aggregate studies estimated linear logit models. It has been pointed out that when they are estimated on aggregate data these models are subject to certain shortcomings. To avoid these shortcomings, more recent aggregate studies have estimated flexible forms such as translog functions. The disaggregate studies surveyed in this paper used either logit or probit models.Statistical results often varied with the commodities analyzed, making it somewhat difficult to generalize the findings of the different studies. One finding common to several studies is that freight rates have a significant impact on shipment decisions. This paper discusses certain theoretical and empirical limitations of the surveyed studies. It also offers suggestions for future research in freight transport demand. Freight demand models can be used to examine various effects of the recent deregulation in freight transportation.     

Optimal roll control of an articulated vehicle: theory and model validation

This paper investigates optimal roll control of an experimental articulated vehicle. The test vehicle and the mathematical model used to design the control strategies are presented. The vehicle model is validated against experimental data from the test vehicle in passive configuration. The initial controller design, performed by Sampson (Sampson, D.J.M. and Cebon, D., 2003a, Achievable roll stability of heavy road vehicles. Proc. Instn. Mech. Engrs, Part D, J. Automobile Engineering, 217(4), 269-287), is reviewed and adapted for the experimental vehicle. The effect of not controlling all the axles on the vehicle is investigated and a variable vehicle speed controller is designed by interpolating between constant speed controllers. Substantial reduction in normalized load transfer is achieved for a range of manoeuvres, both in steady-state and transient conditions.     

Grounding experiments on soft bottoms

To verify a theoretical analysis procedure for calculation of the hull girder response of ships running aground, a series of large-scale ship grounding experiments was performed on an artificial island made of engineered fill. The tests were conducted by running a condemned fishing vessel up on selected beaches of the island with velocities ranging between 2m/s and 5.5m/s. During the tests, surge, heave, and pitch accelerations were measured and also the deformations of the beach and the ship bow. Based on these accelerations, rigid body velocities and motions were determined. The forces arising from the interaction between the bow of the vessel and the seabed were determined by solving the equations of motions. This article describes the analysis of the measured results and a comparison of the results from the full-scale measurements with results from a recently developed analysis procedure for grounding on soft bottoms. Presented at the International Conference on Technology for Marine Environment Preservation (MARIENV '95), Tokyo, Japan, September 24–29, 1995.     

Grade measurement with an instrumented car

Grade information may be needed for route surveys and is important when fuel consumption is studied. An instrumented car was used to measure acceleration along the road surface by double differentiating accumulated pulses generated off the drive train. A second acceleration measure included the component due to gravity relative to the car body. The difference between these acceleration measures contains grade information but it also influenced by suspension dynamics and pitch of the car body. The effect of suspension dynamics was removed by filtering which limited the minimum wavelength to 160 m. The effect of pitch was removed by a correction based on acceleration, jerk and the square of vehicle speed. The correction was computed from data collected on a level airfield runaway. The method is verified for a high capacity arterial road. Grade is measured to within 0.001 rad (95% confidence limits). Elevation derived from the grade data was consistent with road construction drawings to the same limits.     

无舱盖集装箱船货舱强度研究

无盖集装箱船在货舱满载工况下的货舱强度是这种新型船舶结构设计的关键，本文通过１０００箱无舱盖集装箱船货舱强度的研究表明，只要考虑到这种船舶的受力特点，通过精心设计计算，无舱盖集装箱船的货舱结构是能满足强度要求的。就结构而言，设计和制造这种无舱盖集装箱无特别的困难。     

基于数据融合的地铁客流量预测方法

为了更加准确地预测城市地铁交通中动态变化的客流量 ,通过分析城市地铁交通客流量的特点 ,提出了一种基于神经网络数据融合的预测方法。这种方法根据预测数据各属性的特点 ,将采集的数据提取出多个相关序列。在此基础上对各序列采取不同的处理、预测方法 ,再利用神经网络进行融合。这种方法可用于数据动态预测的各种领域。实验表明 ,采用这种方法可以有效地改善数据预测的误差。     

The exceptional service of driverless metros

Automated People Movers can be classified on the basis of scale as “architectural”, institutional”, and “mass transit”. The paper examines mass transit applications in both America and overseas, with emphasis on experience in France, Great Britain, Copenhagen, Canada, and Japan. The benefits of automation are discussed.