Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.     

CFD-based method of determining form factor <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis> for different ship types and different drafts

The value of form factor k at different drafts is important in predicting full-scale total resistance and speed for different types of ships. In the ITTC community, most organizations predict form factor k using a low-speed model test. However, this method is problematic for ships with bulbous bows and transom. In this article, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)-based method is introduced to obtain k for different type of ships at different drafts, and a comparison is made between the CFD method and the model test. The results show that the CFD method produces reasonable k values. A grid generating method and turbulence model are briefly discussed in the context of obtaining a consistent k using CFD.     

A simulation-based probabilistic design method for arctic sea transport systems

When designing an arctic cargo ship, it is necessary to consider multiple stochastic factors. This paper evaluates the merits of a simulation-based probabilistic design method specifically developed to deal with this challenge. The outcome of the paper indicates that the incorporation of simulations and probabilistic design parameters into the design process enables more informed design decisions. For instance, it enables the assessment of the stochastic transport capacity of an arctic ship, as well as of its long-term ice exposure that can be used to determine an appropriate level of ice-strengthening. The outcome of the paper also indicates that significant gains in transport system cost-efficiency can be obtained by extending the boundaries of the design task beyond the individual vessel. In the case of industrial shipping, this allows for instance the consideration of port-based cargo storage facilities allowing for temporary shortages in transport capacity and thus a reduction in the required fleet size / ship capacity.     

Experimental study on reflection coefficient of curved perforated plate

A set of experiments is carried out in a towing tank to study the effects of the curvature of perforated plates on the wave reflection coefficient (C _r ). The curvature of a perforated plate can be changed by rotating a reference perforated plate aboutits origin according to the parabolic equation y=?x ². A plunger-type wave maker is used to generate regular waves. The reflection coefficients are calculated using Goda and Suzuki’s (1976) method. The results are compared with those of vertical or sloped passive wave absorbers. The comparison shows that a perforated plate with a curved profile is highly efficient in terms of reducing the wave reflection coefficient. A correlation is established to estimate the reflection coefficient of curved perforated plates as a function of both flow and geometry characteristics.     

Evaluating the impact of PSC inspectors’ professional profile: a case study of the Spanish Maritime Administration

Full-scale globalisation of trade has been accompanied by a progressive liberalisation of maritime transport. The proliferation of open registries has created a situation in which Port State Control (PSC) has become much more effective than the feeble or non-existent control exercised by those States. This study has been conducted on the influence of the professional profile of inspectors on inspection results. The objective of our paper was to evaluate the impact of PSC inspectors’ professional profile by conducting a case study of the Spanish Maritime Administration. The paper concludes with a discussion of the correlation between deficiencies detected and professional profiles.     

Blue growth and ocean governance—how to balance the use and the protection of the seas

The economic value of the oceans and maritime industry is strongly gaining in importance. As the oceans are very large and particularly sensitive ecosystems, which need to be preserved, a balance between the use and the protection of the seas has to be found. On this issue, the paper presents some thoughts starting with a brief analysis of what to understand by maritime industry which is labeled as blue economy, and a recapitulation of the main threats for the marine environment, caused by blue economy. After that, some noteworthy prerequisites and criteria for finding a sound balance between the use and the protection of the seas will be highlighted, especially the need for sustainable ocean governance is put to discussion.     

Comparing prediction methods for maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

The purpose of maritime accident prediction is to reasonably forecast an accident occurring in the future. In determining the level of maritime traffic management safety, it is important to analyze development trends of existing traffic conditions. Common prediction methods for maritime accidents include regression analysis, grey system models (GM) and exponential smoothing. In this study, a brief introduction is provided that discusses the aforementioned prediction models, including the associated methods and characteristics of each analysis, which form the basis for an attempt to apply a residual error correction model designed to optimize the grey system model. Based on the results, in which the model is verified using two different types of maritime accident data (linear smooth type and random-fluctuation type, respectively), the prediction accuracy and the applicability were validated. A discussion is then presented on how to apply the Markov model as a way to optimize the grey system model. This method, which proved to be correct in terms of prediction accuracy and applicability, is explored through empirical analysis. Although the accuracy of the residual error correction model is usually higher than the accuracy of the original GM (1,1), the effect of the Markov correction model is not always superior to the original GM (1,1). In addition, the accuracy of the former model depends on the characteristics of the original data, the status partition and the determination method for the status transition matrix.     

重装备牵引车集装箱运输应用研究

为促进我军汽车部队集装箱与重装备的运输能力的发展,提出将重装备牵引车应用到集装箱运输中。在分析重装备运输车应用到集装箱运输中的必要性的基础上,对照外包物流公司运输,介绍了其成本—效益分析方法和量化方法,并以进藏冻肉冷藏集装箱铁公联运试点为例、对成本、效益进行了估算,验证了该运输方式的经济性和可行性。     

The influence of parents’ travel patterns,perceptions and residential self-selectivity to their children travel mode shares

Using the UK National Travel Survey from 2002 to 2006, this paper investigates the influence of households’ residential self-selectivity, parents’ perceptions on accessibilities and their travel patterns on their children daily travel mode share. In doing this, this study introduces a model structure that represents the complex interactions between the parents’ travel patterns, their perceptions on public transport services and their reported residential self-selectivity reasons and the children travel mode shares. This structure is analysed with structural equation modelling. The model estimation results show that parents’ residential self-selectivity, parents’ perceptions and satisfactions on accessibilities and their daily travel patterns significantly influence the children’s daily travel mode shares. However, the effects are not uniform across household members. This study has revealed that households’ residential self-selectivity behaviours have more correlations with the children’s non-motorised mode shares, whilst the parents’ perceptions and satisfactions on transport infrastructure and public transport service qualities have more correlations with parents’ mode shares. The results also confirm that parents’ non-motorised modes use in travelling is highly correlated with the children’s physically active travel mode shares. However, at the same time, the results also show that the effects of mothers’ car use to the children travel mode shares is more apparent than fathers’.     

A combined destination and route choice model for a bicycle sharing system

This paper studies the supply variables that influence the destination and route choices of users of a bicycle sharing system in the Chilean city of Santiago. A combined trip demand logit model is developed whose explanatory variables represent attributes relating to the topology of the possible routes and other characteristics such as the presence of bikeways, bus service and controlled intersections. The data for the explanatory variables and system users were collected through field surveys of the routes and interviews conducted at the system stations. The results of the model show that proximity to stops on the Santiago Metro and the existence of bikeways are the main factors influencing destination and route choices. Also indicated by the model estimates are gender differences, a preference for tree-lined routes and an avoidance of routes with bus services. Finally, the outcomes reveal considerable potential for the integration of bicycle sharing systems with Metro transit.