Vulnerability of Coastal Resort Cities to Mean Sea Level Rise in the Mexican Caribbean

We evaluated the potential economic impacts of increasing sea level rise (SLR) along the Mexican Caribbean where there are major gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling flooding duration and frequency associated to future ecological and economic impacts. We determined the negative economic impact of SLR on infrastructure in the largest urban centers (Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel) in the state of Quintana Roo (Mexico) that are considered the largest tourism “hot spots” (resort cities) in the country. The tourism industry in this coastal area injects >8 billion dollars year^?1 to the Mexican economy. Our conservative economic assessment regarding the impact of SLR, under a 1?m scenario for all coastal cities is $330 million USD. Further projections for worst scenarios (SLR >2 m) show a non-linear trend where the cost of inaction can reach up to $1.4 billion USD (2?m SLR scenario) and $2.3 billion USD (3?m SLR scenario). This potential loss of infrastructure, as construction cost, is staggering and represents a robust baseline to start evaluating with more detail future impacts of climate variability and change on the Mexican Caribbean coastline.     

Benthic megafauna communities under the influence of the South Atlantic Central Water intrusion onto the Brazilian SE shelf: A comparison between an upwelling and a non-upwelling ecosystem

The structure and dynamics of the benthic invertebrate megafauna of the Southeastern Brazilian shelf were studied over a 2-year period. Two regions presenting different oceanographic conditions, Ubatuba-SP and Cabo Frio-RJ were compared in terms of biomass, density of organisms and species richness. Two to three 30-min tows were undertaken at each of the stations, located at 40 and 100 m isobath, in a normal transect offshore of both regions. Faunal distributional patterns correlated with water mass dynamics, depth and sediment parameters. In the Cabo Frio region, subjected to a Ekman-driven seasonal coastal upwelling, the impact of the South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) on the inner shelf leads to a change in the benthic communities, with a high dominance of top carnivores such as the crab Portunus spinicarpus and the sea-star Astropecten brasiliensis, which accounted for the larger part of the total biomass. Distinct species associations were found in each of the two regions and the total biomass at Cabo Frio inner shelf was almost twice that of Ubatuba during the 2002 summer, when a marked upwelling was verified. The relationship between megabenthic biomass and input of organic matter to the sea floor during upwelling events is discussed.     

A method for solving the multi‐objective transit frequency optimization problem

Frequency setting takes place at the strategic and tactical planning stages of public transportation systems. The problem consists in determining the time interval between subsequent vehicles for a given set of lines, taking into account interests of users and operators. The result of this stage is considered as input at the operational level. In general, the problem faced by planners is how to distribute a given fleet of buses among a set of given lines. The corresponding decisions determine the frequency of each line, which impacts directly on the waiting time of the users and operator costs. In this work, we consider frequency setting as the problem of minimizing simultaneously users' total travel time and fleet size, which represents the interest of operators. There is a trade‐off between these two measures; therefore, we face a multi‐objective problem. We extend an existing single‐objective formulation to account explicitly for this trade‐off, and propose a Tabu Search solving method to handle efficiently this multi‐objective variant of the problem. The proposed methodology is then applied to a real medium‐sized problem instance, using data of Puerto Montt, Chile. We consider two data sets corresponding to morning‐peak and off‐peak periods. The results obtained show that the proposed methodology is able to improve the current solution in terms of total travel time and fleet size. In addition, the proposed method is able to efficiently suggest (in computational terms) different trade‐off solutions regarding the conflicting objectives of users and operators. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Service quality,satisfaction and behavioral intentions towards public transport from the point of view of private vehicle users

Transportation - In order to attract car users towards the public transport services in an urban and metropolitan context, contributing to a sustainable mobility in cities, it is fundamental to...     

A GPS-aided survey for assessing trip reporting accuracy and travel of students without telephone land lines

A geo-positioning satellite (GPS)-based survey, using a web-based prompted recall tool, was conducted on a sample of 94 students at the University of Toronto from November 2008 to April 2009. The sample included students with and without telephone land lines, allowing for a statistical comparison of demographic and travel behaviour attributes. The same subjects simultaneously completed a traditional trip reporting survey, modelled on the household travel survey in Toronto, allowing for a comparison between the travel behaviour information obtained from the GPS and that reported by the participants in the traditional survey. Students with a land line are more likely to live in houses, with parents, and to live in suburban areas than students without a land line. They also make fewer trips in total, fewer discretionary trips, more transit and auto trips and fewer active trips than students without a land line. By comparing questionnaire-based data and GPS data, we found that most participants reported in the questionnaire either the same number of GPS-based trips or fewer. On average, the GPS survey captured 1.29 more daily trips per participant than the corresponding trips reported in the questionnaire.     

A Strategic Diagnostic Tool Applied to Iberian Seaports: An Evolutionary Perspective

The highly competitive and rapidly changing environment faced by businesses has greatly increased the need for strategic planning. The importance of formulating strategies to reach competitive advantages with implications in the performance is becoming increasingly evident in the seaport context. Thus, it is relevant and appropriate to apply strategic positioning tools to seaports given the role of competitive strategies in the growth and development of this industry. This research aims to analyse the strategic positioning of the leading Iberian Peninsula seaports (Portuguese and Spanish seaports) using the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) matrix as a strategic tool in an evolutionary perspective. The portfolio analysis developed subsequently focuses on the annual data of eight seaports in a selected period of 18 years (1992–2009) and on five categories of traffic: liquid bulk (LB), dry bulk (DB), containers (CO), ro-ro (roll-on/roll-off) and conventional cargo (CC). This research allows us to compare and analyse different levels of performance and identify which of the seaports have improved their strategic positioning during the considered period. The findings reveal a better positioning of Spanish seaports in relation to total traffic and that most of the seaports in the BCG matrix had changed from the first to the third period. The seaport of Valencia is the only one that has maintained its Star Performer position in all the 18 years analysed. Furthermore, considering container traffic, the results evidence the seaports of Algeciras, Valencia and Barcelona as having attained a remarkable position of leadership.     

Upwelling mechanisms in the northwestern Alboran Sea

From April 1996 to July 1997, a series of hydrographic surveys were carried out in the Northwestern part of the Alboran Sea to investigate the upwelling that is an almost permanent feature in this area. Simultaneously a mooring line was deployed in the north part of the eastern section of the Strait of Gibraltar to monitor the variability of the Atlantic Jet (AJ). Two mechanisms are shown to be relevant for the upwelling dynamic in the region: the southward drifting of the AJ and wind stress. A linear relation between the angle under which the Jet enters the Alboran Sea and the distance from the coastline to the front associated with the Jet has been found. This angle that has been estimated from the low passed time series of current velocity measured by the uppermost instrument of the moored line has been then used to identify the onshore–offshore excursions of the Jet. Both upwelling mechanisms are identified from hydrographic data, because each of them has associated a different type of water mass, and they take place in different locations. Wind-driven upwelling dominates in coastal zones, on the shelf, while upwelling associated with southward drifting of the AJ prevails further offshore. The amount of sub-surface water brought up to the surface by each one is of the same order. However, wind-driven upwelling contributes to the fertilization of this region in a major extent because water upwelled by wind is richer in nutrient concentration.     

Car ownership and access to jobs in Spain

The purpose of this paper is to assess the effect of urban structure on household car ownership in a context of rapid job and population decentralization. We capture the effect of urban structure through a measure of job accessibility to employment by public transport. An ordered probit explaining the number of cars per household is estimated as a function of individual, household and spatial variables. The data used in the analysis come from the Spanish Institute of Statistics’ 2001 Micro-census for the areas of Barcelona and Madrid. The results show that spatial variables play a significant role in explaining the probability of car ownership. We provide the car ownership elasticities with respect the job accessibility measure. Additionally, we carried out simulation exercises in which the expected number of vehicles decreases as accessibility improves.     

A new era for airport regulators through capacity investments

Private and public airports’ optimal actions may not coincide. While private airports usually pursue profit maximization, publicly owned airports look for maximum social welfare. Thus, the prices charged by private airports may differ from the socially optimal charges and public intervention may be needed. In this paper, we analyze airport charges when an increase in frequency produces positive or negative externalities and carriers have market power. We use the methodology of game theory to show that there may exist a level of capacity for which private and social objectives coincide, so no price regulation is needed. Thus, the usual role of regulators and planners could be modified in order to decide the appropriate capacity investments for which airport regulation is no longer necessary.     

Influence of the heavy fuel spill from the Prestige tanker wreckage in the overlying seawater column levels of copper, nickel and vanadium (NE Atlantic ocean)

The water column above the Prestige wreckage was sampled during two consecutive campaigns: Prestinaut (December 2002) two weeks after the tanker sunk and HidroPrestige0303 (March 2003) one month after the sealing of the main fuel leaks. Samples of the original cargo fuel and the emulsified fuel in the surface of the ocean were also collected. Analysis of the fuel indicated the release of 135 kg of Cu, 1700 kg of Ni and 5300 kg of V from the original fuel to the water column, remaining 35 kg of Cu, 3100 kg of Ni and 13,800 kg of V in the emulsified fuel. The metal partitioning between the water column and the emulsioned floating fuel, Cu > Ni ~ V, are in accordance with the stability index for the metal–nitrogen bond in metalloporphyrins. This release had an impact on dissolved trace metal concentrations in the water column. An increase on dissolved copper (2.8–4.7 nM) and nickel (2.2–8.0 nM) with respect to natural values (1–3 nM for Cu and 1.6–5 nM for Ni) was observed. Values for vanadium (28–35 nM) were in the range of pristine North Atlantic waters (30–36 nM). This contamination was especially observed in the upper water column (0–50 m), associated with the mixing of seawater with the fuel moving upwards, and in deep waters, where the residence time of fuel is higher. Future research in this field should focus on the environmental variables and the processes that control the release of contaminants from fuels for a better assessment of the contamination in oil-spill events.