Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Regulation of the informal transport sector in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: welfare impacts and policy analysis

In Brazil, the explosion of informal transport activity during the past decade has had profound effects on formal public transport systems and is a source of great controversy in the urban transportation sector. A variety of policies have been proposed to manage the growth of the sector. This study seeks to understand how proposed policies will impact the users of these systems. A corridor in Rio de Janeiro with substantial informal activity was used as a case study. Measures of welfare changes in a discrete choice framework were used to estimate proposed policies’ impacts on users. Eleven candidate policies were evaluated, ranging from the eradication of the informal modes and investment in formal modes, to the legalization of the informal modes. Benefits were compared with costs and the distribution of benefits across income classes was explored. Net benefits from some policies were found to be substantial. Legalizing the informal sector was found to benefit users slightly but further investments in the sector are probably inefficient. Users benefited most from improvements in formal mass transit modes, at roughly 100–200 dollars per commuter per year. Finally, policies to foster a competitive environment for the delivery of both informal and formal services were shown to benefit users about 100 dollars per commuter per year. Together, the regulation of the informal sector and investments in the formal sector serve to reinforce the movement towards competitive concessions for services and help reduce the impacts of cartelization and costly in-road competition.

含缺陷管道悬空状态下的有限元建模

地质灾害情况下,管道容易产生大变形和失效,造成重大事故,因此,研究地质灾害中管道的建模与应力计算,具有重要的工程意义.通过力学与有限元的结合,利用ANSYS工程软件建立管道在悬空状态下的大变形有限元模型.为考虑土壤地基的影响,采用弹簧来模拟地基对管道的反作用.根据材料力学计算分析,得出比较合适的弹簧间距,并验证了该模型的合理性.对于含缺陷的管道,运用子模型技术进行处理.建模完成后,用一组具体的管道参数进行实例分析,利用ANSYS后处理命令计算管道上的最大应力及其应力分布.     

管道外腐蚀直接评价（ECDA）在阴极保护中的应用

在城市埋地燃气钢质管道中,运用ECDA对阴极保护系统出现问题的管段进行了综合评价.在间接检测与评价中,使用多频管中电流法(RD-PCM)查找、定位管道防腐层的破损点及管道与其他构筑物的搭接点并进行处理,使管道阴极保护有效发挥作用.     

基于公理设计的捷联导航系统设计方法

按照公理化设计原理,设计公理为设计者提供了一种设计指导框架。在此框架的指导下,大大降低了系统设计的复杂度,由此提高了系统的设计质量,缩短了系统的开发周期。本文应用公理化设计理论,采用结构模块化设计原则,对捷联式惯性导航系统的设计过程进行分析,给出了捷联式惯性导航系统的功能需求与设计参数间的映射与分解过程。结果表明,设计的分解过程是合理的,满足独立性公理。     

吊舱式全回转电力推进器的现状及展望

介绍了吊舱式全回转电力推进系统的发展情况、应用范围及典型结构,分析了吊舱式电力推进系统的特点及当前几种主流产品的情况,指出了吊舱式推进系统广泛的应用前景,提出我国大力发展吊舱式电力推进系统的积极意义。     

船舶动力定位系统

船舶动力定位技术在航运业具有举足轻重的地位.介绍动力定位技术的发展历史,系统的结构组成、工作原理和工作模式,提出了动力定位技术的研究热点.     

桩土效应与地震对自升式平台动力响应影响分析

以某400英尺自升式钻井平台为研究对象,建立了相应的三维有限元分析模型,综合考虑风浪流包括地震等环境载荷和桩土效应的影响,对风暴自存状态下自升式钻井平台的响应进行了分析,通过比较传统的铰支模型和基于Winkler地基梁的桩土相互作用模型,并叠加地震波的作用,结果表明,传统的铰支模型计算结果偏于保守,考虑了桩土效应后,平台的最大侧向位移有所降低。同时,地震对平台的响应分析结果影响较大,叠加地震波后平台的水平向位移最大值增大幅度在60%以上,且不同的桩基模型考虑地震后增大的幅度也不一样。     

超大型原油船平行中体建造优化研究

超大型原油船是海运业中的一种重要船型,其载油量为20～30万吨,单船运量大,是原油的理想运输工具。平行中体结构占全船70%左右,是其主要载货空间,在整个船体建造过程中占据重要地位。论文通过分析某型载重量为29.7万吨的VLCC建造过程中的控制工艺及其优劣性,对改进设计工艺工法,提高生产效率有着重要意义和作用。