Addressing the joint occurrence of self-selection and simultaneity biases in the estimation of program effects based on cross-sectional observational surveys: case study of travel behavior effects in carsharing

Transportation - We estimate the effect of carsharing on travel behavior (specifically, household vehicle holdings, frequency of transit usage, and frequency of biking and walking) using data from...     

Representing heterogeneity in structural relationships among multiple choice variables using a latent segmentation approach

Transportation - Travel model systems often adopt a single decision structure that links several activity-travel choices together. The single decision structure is then used to predict...     

Modeling schedule recovery processes in transit operations for bus arrival time prediction

Many existing algorithms for bus arrival time prediction assume that buses travel at free‐flow speed in the absence of congestion. As a result, delay incurred at one stop would propagate to downstream stops at the same magnitude. In reality, skilled bus operators often constantly adjust their speeds to keep their bus on schedule. This paper formulates a Markov chain model for bus arrival time prediction that explicitly captures the behavior of bus operators in actively pursuing schedule recovery. The model exhibits some desirable properties in capturing the schedule recovery process. It guarantees provision of the schedule information if the probability of recovering from the current schedule deviation is sufficiently high. The proposed model can be embedded into a transit arrival time estimation model for transit information systems that use both real‐time and schedule information. It also has the potential to be used as a decision support tool to determine when dynamic or static information should be used.     

NUMERICAL MODEL OF THERMAL TRANSIENT EFFECT IN FIBER OPTIC GYRO

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Primary productivity of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research Area and the Southern Ocean

A major objective of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (Palmer LTER) project is to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the various components of the Antarctic marine ecosystem. Phytoplankton production plays a key role in this so-called high nutrient, low chlorophyll environment, and factors that regulate production include those that control cell growth (light, temperature, and nutrients) and those that control cell accumulation rate and hence population growth (water column stability, grazing, and sinking). Sea ice mediates several of these factors and frequently conditions the water column for a spring bloom which is characterized by a pulse of production restricted in both time and space. This study models the spatial and temporal variability of primary production within the Palmer LTER area west of the Antarctic Peninsula and discusses this production in the context of historical data for the Southern Ocean. Primary production for the Southern Ocean and the Palmer LTER area have been computed using both light-pigment production models [Smith, R.C., Bidigare, R.R., Prézelin, B.B., Baker, K.S., Brooks, J.M., 1987. Optical characterization of primary productivity across a coastal front. Mar. Biol. (96), 575–591; Bidigare, R.R., Smith, R.C., Baker, K.S., Marra, J., 1987. Oceanic primary production estimates from measurements of spectral irradiance and pigment concentrations. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (1), 171–186; Morel, A., Berthon, J.F., 1989. Surface pigments, algal biomass profiles and potential production of the euphotic layer—relationships reinvestigated in view of remote-sensing applications. Limnol. Oceanogr. (34), 1545–1562] and an ice edge production model [Nelson, D.M., Smith, W.O., 1986. Phytoplankton bloom dynamics of the western Ross Sea ice edge: II. Mesoscale cycling of nitrogen and silicon. Deep-Sea Res. (33), 1389–1412; Wilson, D.L., Smith, W.O., Nelson, D.M., 1986. Phytoplankton bloom dynamics of the Western Ross Sea ice edge: I. primary productivity and species-specific production. Deep-Sea Res., 33, 1375–1387; Smith, W.O., Nelson, D.M., 1986. Importance of ice edge phytoplankton production in the Southern Ocean. BioScience (36), 251–257]. Chlorophyll concentrations, total photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and sea ice concentrations were derived from satellite data. These same parameters, in addition to hydrodynamic conditions, have also been determined from shipboard and Palmer Station observations during the LTER program. Model results are compared, sensitivity studies evaluated, and productivity of the Palmer LTER region is discussed in terms of its space time distribution, seasonal and interannual variability, and overall contribution to the marine ecology of the Southern Ocean.     

如何做好船舶设备维修保养工作

船员在船舶进行维修保养工作期间,经常发生一些工伤、机损事故。此文就如何加强安全防范意识,避免发生人身伤害和设备损坏提出了建议和措施。     

Heterogeneous traffic flow modelling for an arterial using grid based approach

A grid based modelling approach akin to cellular automata (CA) is adopted for heterogeneous traffic flow simulation. The road space is divided into a grid of equally sized cells. Moreover, each vehicle type occupies one or more cell as per its size unlike CA traffic flow model where each vehicle is represented by a single cell. Model needs inputs such as vehicle size, its maximum speed, acceleration, deceleration, probability constants, and arrival pattern. The position and speed of the vehicles are assumed to be discrete. The speed of each vehicle changes according to its interactions with other vehicles, following some stochastic rules depending on the circumstances. The model is calibrated and validated using real data and VISSIM. The results indicate that grid based model can reasonably well simulate complex heterogeneous traffic as well as offers higher computational efficiency needed for real time application.     

Robust control of traffic networks under uncertain conditions

Uncertainty of traffic network operations has been a subject of lively debate in the last decade. However, little effort has been put in developing control frameworks that are not only aimed at improving the average performance of the system, but also at improving the system robustness and reliability. In fact, it can be argued that most of the current control approaches are only aimed at improving the efficiency, which can even be counterproductive from a robustness point of view. The main contributions of this article is the proposition of a new control framework based on the notion of controlled Markov processes, which explicitly takes into account the uncertainty in predicted traffic conditions and system performance. Furthermore, in contrast to traditional optimal control approaches, the objective function can include general statistic of the random system performance, such as the mean, standard deviation or 95‐percentile. The contribution aims to make clear how different performance function specifications yield different control strategies. This is shown for a relatively simple case study.     

Relationships between near-bottom dissolved oxygen and sediment profile camera measures

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and other environmental authorities regulate concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) as a measure of nutrient-related eutrophication in estuarine and coastal waters. However, in situ DO concentrations are extremely variable, and their characterization requires an extensive sampling program to provide data over meaningful scales of time and space. In contrast, benthic faunal communities integrate the impacts of low DO over time, and can be rapidly assessed using benthic imaging. The goal of this study was to quantify the relationships between near-bottom dissolved oxygen and measures derived from benthic imaging with a sediment profile camera. We monitored three stations in Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island, USA) for DO and other water quality parameters 15–20 cm above the sediment surface on 15-minute intervals between July and November 2002, and regularly sampled these stations with a sediment profile camera throughout this time period. These soft-sediment stations encompassed several DO environments. We tested for relationships between near-bottom DO and several camera measures, including Nilsson and Rosenberg's Benthic Habitat Quality (BHQ) index, the apparent Redox Potential Discontinuity (aRPD) depth, and various faunal features that can be identified in sediment profile images. Camera measures were examined against a variety of methods of characterizing DO (including mean DO, and the percent of time under various DO thresholds), over a span of time scales from 1 day to 49 days. The best relationship (highest r²) between near-bottom DO and BHQ was found when DO was evaluated as the percent of time under a hypoxic threshold of 2.6 mg l^− 1 over a 28-day time scale (by examining DO records over the 28 days preceding each camera deployment). We found that, over several benthic settings, the BHQ index was successful at identifying environments that had experienced relatively high or low DO over the preceding four weeks. Our sediment profile data showed more variability with DO in the intermediate values of BHQ. We conclude that sediment profile camera measures correlate to DO in areas where low DO is the primary stressor, integrate DO over ecologically relevant time scales, and enable sampling over spatial scales that are meaningful for mapping by virtue of rapid deployment and analysis. We submit that sediment profile camera imagery is a useful assessment and mapping tool for environmental managers interested in benthic condition and in first-order quantitative estimates of near-bottom DO regimes in areas where low DO is the primary benthic stressor.