Addressing the joint occurrence of self-selection and simultaneity biases in the estimation of program effects based on cross-sectional observational surveys: case study of travel behavior effects in carsharing

Transportation - We estimate the effect of carsharing on travel behavior (specifically, household vehicle holdings, frequency of transit usage, and frequency of biking and walking) using data from...     

Evaluating road safety audit procedures: some questions and a new method of study

This article discusses the current views on the application of road safety audits (RSAs) as a tool for the improvement of road safety and proposes a new method of study for detailed evaluation of some features that can influence their effectiveness. This is demonstrated in the practical setting of RSAs applied to existing road reviews or inspections. Starting from a review of published sources on RSAs in different countries, a set of questions has been identified and a case study undertaken on the impact of alternative RSA procedures on its overall effectiveness. RSA effectiveness is measured both as agreement with a safety expert assessment and to an accident-based study. The main features analyzed in the case study include the type of observer used for data collection and the type of checklist used as a guide to field work. Based on an exploratory study, the performance of RSA application is evaluated using weighted indices of concordance and disagreement, and the rating of detection or omission for the observations gathered in the accident diagnosis of the safety problems at the intersection studied, supplemented by a statistical analysis of the influence of selected covariates on these scores. The main results of the case study can be summarized as clear support to team work for field observation and also to employing less-experienced personnel for field observation. The study also stresses the need for procedures/criteria for priority setting. These conclusions are useful for the selection of alternative RSA procedures in agencies responsible for promoting or enforcing RSA and in professional teams carrying out RSA tasks. Several features deserving further study are also identified.     

Economic and service comparison of conventional bus and automated transit—a case study

Three origin‐destination matrices of inter‐zonal person trips for a section of the Los Angeles metropolitan region are analyzed using principal component analysis. The matrices represent total person trips, journey‐to‐work trips, and shopping trips. This allows for the identification of a number of sub‐regional travel fields or functional regions within the area. The composition of and interrelationships between these fields and the spatial coincidence of fields defined for different travel purposes are compared with existing and proposed public transit facilities.     

Rapid transit system simulation with interactive graphics display

A mathematical model of a rapid transit system has been developed. The model employs computer techniques to simulate the physical system. To further enhance the results and gain management confidence in the reliability and validity of the design of the model, a TV‐like display of the computer results enables the viewer to “see” the performance of the model as it happens. The results displayed thus include: The track layout, time (simulation), train position on the track, and the number of passengers riding on each train and waiting at each platform or station. The computer printout of results is limited to summary type data, relying on the display for detailed evaluation and analysis.     

Role of transport in rural development in Africa

Rural Africa is starved of transport services. The transport routes run towards the export enclaves and the coast.

The political, social and developmental rural transport benefits are discussed. Rural transport will help (i) integrate the country and ease its governance; (ii) widen markets; (iii) induce increased agricultural output, through new technologies, reduced transport costs, etc. The transport cost savings should be passed on to rural firms and producers. The paper warns against their accruing only to middlemen — agricultural parastatals inclusive, thereby stifling the benefits to production. This could happen under some forms of pan‐territorial pricing. Negative aspects of road development, e.g. the substitution of local goods by imports, increased migration and noise, are noted.

The place and role of project appraisal in rural road planning is acknowledged. The broad‐based development packages approach associated with Integrated Rural Development Projects has, despite its attractions, some pitfalls. It favours well established villages and ignores distribution benefits within villages.

Project appraisal can be used to justify socially uneconomic transport developments. However, rural road investment projects with immediate negative returns are unlikely to be funded. Given clear priorities, short of elaborate cost/benefit analysis, obvious road investments choices can be made by the local community. Greater public accountability of transport planners and peoples’ participation in determining rural transport needs and priorities is emphasized. Increased rural road maintenance especially through self‐help schemes and increased use of traditional modes of transport, e.g. walking, animal and water transport, is recommended.     

Integrated land use — transport models

This paper is a review of computer models of the interrelationships between land use and transport, particularly of the long‐term effects of changes in transport costs on cities and the consequent effects on travel demand. The nature of this relationship is examined in terms of empirical evidence, and a set of criteria against which the models can be evaluated is defined. Four major types of model are examined: regression, mathematical programming, aggregate spatial interaction and individual choice. Each type is considered in terms of operational examples and the strengths and weaknesses of each approach are identified. However, it is recognized that few of the models are capable of representing the major social and technological changes that are currently influencing urban development, and that this is where emphasis should be put if this type of model is to be useful for policy‐making in the future.     

Identifying critical road segments and measuring system-wide robustness in transportation networks with isolating links: A link-based capacity-reduction approach

A wide range of relatively short-term disruptive events such as partial flooding, visibility reductions, traction hazards due to weather, and pavement deterioration occur on transportation networks on a daily basis. Despite being relatively minor when compared to catastrophes, these events still have profound impacts on traffic flow. To date there has been very little distinction drawn between different types of network-disruption studies and how the methodological approaches used in those studies differ depending on the specific research objectives and on the disruption scenarios being modeled.In this paper, we advance a methodological approach that employs different link-based capacity-disruption values for identifying and ranking the most critical links and quantifying network robustness in a transportation network. We demonstrate how an ideal capacity-disruption range can be objectively determined for a particular network and introduce a scalable system-wide performance measure, called the Network Trip Robustness (NTR) that can be used to directly compare networks of different sizes, topologies, and connectivity levels.Our approach yields results that are independent of the degree of connectivity and can be used to evaluate robustness on networks with isolating links. We show that system-wide travel-times and the rank-ordering of the most critical links in a network can vary dramatically based on both the capacity-disruption level and on the overall connectivity of the network. We further show that the relationships between network robustness, the capacity-disruption level used for modeling, and network connectivity are non-linear and not necessarily intuitive. We discuss our findings with respect to Braess’ Paradox.     

基于交通运输产业经济特性的交通政策分析

交通运输产业是国民经济的重要支柱,它区别于其他产业而具有独特的经济特性。交通运输政策是交通运输产业良好发展的重要保证。从交通运输产业特有的经济特性入手,分析和改善交通运输政策,以保证交通运输产业良好快速的发展,具有深远的意义。     

浅析地铁盾构隧道的施工测量

以南京地铁南北线一期工程许府巷-玄武门区间隧道的盾构施工为例，介绍了地铁盾构隧道的施工测量的特点以及测量的内容及方法。     

不同时间脾切除联用环孢素对协调性异种心脏移植物存活的影响

目的探讨脾切除联用环孢素对协调性异种移植心脏存活时间的影响及其机制。方法建立协调性异种心脏移植模型。分别采用不同时间脾切除联用环孢素,观察异种移植物的生存时间。用CH50法检测各组动物血清中总补体活性。应用流式细胞技术检测动物血清中异种反应性抗体IgG、IgM的滴度变化。移植物标本HE染色观察病理学改变。免疫组化染色观察各实验组不同时间移植物组织中IgG、IgM抗体的沉积。结果脾切除联用环孢素能够显著延长移植物的生存时间(P<0.05),降低受者体内异种反应性抗体的滴度。结论脾切除联用环孢素可以减少移植术后早期受者体内异种反应性抗体的产生,延长异种移植物的生存时间。