Disaster prevention and strategic investment for multiple ports in a region: cooperation or not

With the growth of maritime transportation, seaports have become critical to the world economy as linking nodes between shipping and inland transport. However, the port system is fragile under certain unconventional emergency events. This study addresses the issue of investment on disaster prevention within the port competition context. The present model discusses and compares four situations of different relationships and strategies of pre-disaster prevention between two adjacent ports. Results indicate that both ports increase the disaster prevention investment under the cooperation scenario compared with that in the case of non-cooperation wherein they are complementary ports. Meanwhile, a numerical simulation is conducted to examine the collective and individual rationality of both ports. Although cooperation strategy decreases the total risk cost of two ports, one of the two ports may profit, whereas the other may suffer losses.     

37500m3乙烷运输船液货舱的载荷传递

本文针对为应对美国页岩气革命而研发的37,500m3全球最大型乙烷运输船,就超长的C型独立液货舱的静态载荷如何传递到船体结构,进行了深入地分析研究,设计了不同的载荷分布方式和相应的装载工况,并通过有限元方法进行了分析验证,得出了一些实用的结论,对今后采用C型独立液货舱的液化气船的设计提供了重要参考。     

离线船舶机电设备振动采集仪系统设计

设计了离线振动采集仪的硬件系统,通过对传感器电源模块的进行了节电控制设计,优化振动信号的采集策略和采集节奏,提出了振动信号数据处理和存储方法,实现了无人关注下自主对船舶机电设备振动信号连续近百天的采集任务。应用结果显示,采集仪系统结果准确可靠,实现了全工况的实船振动数据的采集设备。     

智能船舶集成设计技术

针对符合CCS《智能船舶规范》入级符号的船舶设计开发,研究分析智能船舶集成设计技术的设计思想、设计要素、设计框架和关键技术,设计目标船解决方案,并讨论了未来需要突破技术方向。     

内河船舶波浪载荷研究

利用内河波浪散布图和修订波浪谱对内河系列船舶进行了波浪载荷的计算预报,首次分析了内河船舶波浪载荷的规律和特点,并与俄罗斯内河登记局(RRR)和法国-德国船级社(B-G)的内河规范载荷对应的等效模数要求进行了比较分析。结合实船测试结果表明：波浪载荷变化规律与国外同类规范一致,预报波浪载荷水平与测试结果及国外同类规范要求相当。内河船舶波浪载荷预报应考虑航速和水深的影响,载荷预报结果可以作为制定内河波浪载荷公式的基础。     

应用固有应变法计算焊接变形时材料模型的选择研究

分别采用理想弹塑性模型和双线性强化模型,推导出各自的固有应变计算公式,研究不同材料模型对于焊接结构变形的影响。研究结果表明,两种固有应变计算公式所预测的变形结果之间相对误差较小,即不同材料模型的选择对预测结构焊接变形的影响可以忽略。     

Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

Aggregating mobile object trajectories: cumulative time geographic density estimation for GPS data

We present new approaches that expand upon the time geographic density estimation (TGDE) framework previously employed to estimate potential path trees. In the past, TGDE metrics have identified possible locations an individual moving object may have passed between, given known origin and destination points. This paper utilizes a new form of TGDE to investigate taxicab GPS traces over a specified time horizon with position ‘gaps’. To this end, we propose a new extension to the TGDE framework, TGDE-C, which is used to determine the cumulative TGDE values for a group of GPS traces, at a given location. These metrics are applied to multiple taxis and allow for time of day analysis. Additionally, we combine these new extensions with existing TGDE metrics that allow us to determine how accessible individual or groups of vehicles are to urban opportunities.     

Property Evolution of Sulphoaluminate Grouting Material under Pressure Circulation北大核心CSCD

Water-sealed underground oil tank projects are quite different from traditional underground projects since the water-sealing conditions are very strict and the difficulties caused by the geological specificity, structural specificity and construction specificity are key factors affecting the project. In light of the significant early initial setting time and rapid temperature increase of sulphoaluminate cement-based grouting material for a large domestic water-sealed underground oil tank with pressurized cyclic grouting, a laboratory grouting simulation is conducted. It is found that the properties of the sulphoaluminate cement-based grouting material are quite different under different pressure cycles, the hydration exothermic peak time gets shorter with an increase of circulation time, the compressive strength decreases with an increase of circulation time, and the longer the circulation time the more obvious the de-crease of compressive strength. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.