汽车保险杠的薄壁化设计

保险杠薄壁化设计具有降低零件重量、减少制造能耗、提高生产节拍等多方面优势,其所选用的改性聚丙烯材料须具备高流动、高冲击、高强度和高刚性的特点。CAE模拟明确了薄壁设计对保险杠系统模态、疲劳特性、静态下沉量及系统刚度的影响,为汽车保险杠薄壁化设计提供参考。     

降低传动系统冲击载荷的一种有效方法

研究了半轴、传动轴扭转刚度对传动系冲击载荷最大值的影响,得出了半轴扭转刚度与传动系冲击载荷最大值之间的函数关系,指出降低半轴扭转刚度是减小传动系冲击载荷最大值,提高传动系可靠性的有效方法。研制了新型非调质刚半轴,并将其与原调质刚半轴进行了对比试验。结果表明,将非调质钢半轴杆径从60 mm减小到58 mm,其静扭刚度及疲劳寿命均可满足技术要求,而扭转刚度较原调质刚半轴略有降低,有利于整个传动系降低冲击载荷。     

GTRC造船理念

财富之标Ⅱ系列船舶工程是G.T.R.Campbell船舶咨询有限公司(GTRC)于1999年在中国发起的重要造船项目之一.此公司在40年前提出了一个全新的造船理念(GTRC造船理念).1999年,当GTRC在中国靖江造船厂开始其中国造船业务时,此理念开始被引入中国.通过对财富之标Ⅱ系列船舶工程进行研究,将讨论其理念如何...     

Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling

This study reviews the 50-year history of travel demand forecasting models, concentrating on their accuracy and relevance for public decision-making. Only a few studies of model accuracy have been performed, but they find that the likely inaccuracy in the 20-year forecast of major road projects is ±30 % at minimum, with some estimates as high as ±40–50 % over even shorter time horizons. There is a significant tendency to over-estimate traffic and underestimate costs, particularly for toll roads. Forecasts of transit costs and ridership are even more uncertain and also significantly optimistic. The greatest knowledge gap in US travel demand modeling is the unknown accuracy of US urban road traffic forecasts. Modeling weaknesses leading to these problems (non-behavioral content, inaccuracy of inputs and key assumptions, policy insensitivity, and excessive complexity) are identified. In addition, the institutional and political environments that encourage optimism bias and low risk assessment in forecasts are also reviewed. Major institutional factors, particularly low local funding matches and competitive grants, confound scenario modeling efforts and dampen the hope that technical modeling improvements alone can improve forecasting accuracy. The fundamental problems are not technical but institutional: high non-local funding shares for large projects warp local perceptions of project benefit versus costs, leading to both input errors and political pressure to fund projects. To deal with these issues, the paper outlines two different approaches. The first, termed ‘hubris’, proposes a multi-decade effort to substantially improve model forecasting accuracy over time by monitoring performance and improving data, methods and understanding of travel, but also by deliberately modifying the institutional arrangements that lead to optimism bias. The second, termed ‘humility’, proposes to openly quantify and recognize the inherent uncertainty in travel demand forecasts and deliberately reduce their influence on project decision-making. However to be successful either approach would require monitoring and reporting accuracy, standards for modeling and forecasting, greater model transparency, educational initiatives, coordinated research, strengthened ethics and reduction of non-local funding ratios so that localities have more at stake.     

The visual impact of development in coastal zone areas

Abstract

The focus of this paper is theoretical, as well as methodological. It reviews previous studies of visual impact and reports research by the author on people's evaluation of the appropriateness of different man‐made facilities in different coastal‐area contexts and other environments. In this study, subjects were asked to react to slides developed through the use of landscape models and experimental facilities to simulate the appearance of a building in the landscape, while systematically varying the visual relatedness between the two. Specific interest centered on the variable of congruity vs. contrast between the appearance of the building and its landscape context, manipulated by co‐varying the attributes of color and size to create a five‐point scale of contrast/obtrusiveness. The hypothesis was that judgments of appropriateness, and to a lesser extent judgments of liking, would vary inversely with level of contrast. The role of two further variables, the functional significance of the building in its setting, and the character of the setting itself, was also investigated. The author reviews methodological issues involved where subjects respond to visual stimuli for purposes of judging change in visual quality. These methodological issues include: stimulus‐selection and problems of simulation, choice of response measures, and choice of respondents, and the treatment of individual differences. The author calls for development of standardized scales and indices such as “perceptually‐relevant environmental quality indicators.”     

Motorway signals and the detection of incidents

A mathematical model of automobile trip tours is presented. Within a framework of eight common restrictions on automobile trip making, all travel behavior is assumed random and all of the ways in which tours can be arranged are assumed equally likely. Three probability distributions are derived from the model: (1) the probability that a household makes a given number of tours in a day; (2) the probability that a household makes a given number of trips in a day; and (3) the probability that a tour reaches a given number of destinations. It is shown that the model agrees with similar probability distributions generated from home‐interview data for Milwaukee.     

The dredging dilemma: Economic development and environmental protection in Oakland Harbor

Abstract

Seaport expansion often generates tensions between the national interest in efficient transport and local interests in water quality and habitat preservation. The governing American permitting system, however, establishes an extraordinarily cumbersome, legalistic, and costly method for balancing environmental and economic considerations. A case study of the Port of Oakland illustrates the tendency. For four years, plans to find an environmentally acceptable site for dredged material have been stymied by a sequence of inconclusive regulatory and judicial proceedings. Meanwhile, large container ships can enter and leave Oakland harbor only at high tide, and not fully loaded. Despite the absence of any authoritative determination concerning environmental risks, the port was compelled to accede to progressively more expensive disposal methods. Such “adversarial legalism”; is not unique to the Oakland harbor case, but recurs in other policy spheres. It stems from a governmental structure that fragments decision‐making power among many agencies, that constrains regulatory discretion with legal demands for scientific certainty, and that by allowing agency decisions to be challenged readily in court, encourages legalistic defensiveness and extortion rather than compromise. The article concludes with a discussion of the conditions under which regional planning bodies might overcome these centrifugal tendencies.     

新型公共交通外部电源供电模式分析

对适用于新型公共交通的外部电源供电模式优缺点及适用范围进行了分析.提出了一种基于单电源、单环网的新的供电模式.经综合比较分析,新的供电模式具有较好的经济性和可实施性.在具体工程中,应根据沿线的外部电源情况、本线的牵引和动力照明负荷的分布和大小,以及供电安全和可靠性的要求,选择最合理的供电方式.