金属带式无级变速器带轮变形分析

基于为某国产金属带式无级变速器建立的从动带轮三维模型,利用有限元方法,分析了轴向力和速比对带轮变形的影响,并据此拟合出带轮最大变形量和最大变形位置分布的数学公式,再利用文献中现有的试验数据,验证了有限元分析的有效性.结果表明,速比是影响最大变形量位置的主要因素,而轴向力和速比同时影响变形量的大小.     

希腊船东的融资之道

航运业是世界上资本最密集的行业之一,船舶投资占航运企业现金流的50%以上。一艘大型集装箱船、油船的造价动辄上亿美元,而一艘液化天然气船的造价更是昂贵。航运企业要扩大规模,提高国际竞争力,必须广拓融资渠道,筹集大量资金。作为全球第一航运大国,船舶融资对希腊航运业的发展至关重要。金融危机过后,融资环境的变化已经使得越来越多的希腊船东意识到资本市场融资的重要。那么,希腊船东是通过哪些渠道获取资金的呢？     

基于状态转移法的冷却水系统动态可靠性分析

由于传统的系统可靠性建模与分析方法在描述时间、过程变量和操纵员等的动态影响时存在困难,而无法满足复杂动态系统可靠性分析的需要。对具有动态随机性故障的可修系统采用静态近似处理,经常会导致计算的可靠性指标与实际情况相差较大。针对动态分析问题,应用马尔科夫过程理论建立了系统中部件可靠性参数随时间变化的状态转移方程,根据冷却水系统的原理和运行特点建立了冷却水系统的数学计算模型,并运用算例对该方法进行了分析。分析结果表明,该模型可以合理地分析计算冷却水系统的不可用度随时间的变化。     

Income-contingent user preferences in policy evaluation: application and discussion based on multi-agent transport simulations

Standard economic policy evaluation allows the realization of projects if the aggregated economic benefit outweighs their costs. The use of one single aggregated welfare measure for evaluating and ranking projects has often been criticized for many reasons. A major issue is that differentiated effects on individuals or subgroups of the population are not taken into consideration. This leads to the need for transport planning tools that provide additional information for politicians and decision makers. The microscopic multi-agent simulation approach presented in this paper is capable of helping to design better solutions in such situations. In particular, it is shown that the inclusion of individual income in utility calculations allows a better understanding of problems linked to public acceptance. First, individual income-contingent utility functions are estimated based on survey data in order to describe human mobility behavior. Subsequently, using the MATSim framework, the implementation is tested in a test scenario. Furthermore, and going beyond Franklin (2006), it is shown that the approach works in a large-scale real world example. Based on a hypothetical speed increase of public transit, effects on the welfare distribution of the population are discussed. It is shown that the identification of winners and losers seems to be quite robust. However, results indicate that a conversion or aggregation of individual utility changes for welfare analysis is highly dependent on the functional form of the utility functions as well as on the choice of the aggregation procedure.     

A random utility maximization (RUM) based dynamic activity scheduling model: Application in weekend activity scheduling

The paper presents a modeling framework for dynamic activity scheduling. The modeling framework considers random utility maximization (RUM) assumption for its components in order to capture the joint activity type, location and continuous time expenditure choice tradeoffs over the course of the day. The dynamics of activity scheduling process are modeled by considering the history of activity participation as well as changes in time budget availability over the day. For empirical application, the model is estimated for weekend activity scheduling using a dataset (CHASE) collected in Toronto in 2002–2003. The data set classifies activities into nine general categories. For the empirical model of a 24-h weekend activity scheduling, only activity type and time expenditure choices are considered. The estimated empirical model captures many behavioral details and gives a high degree of fit to the observed weekend scheduling patterns. Some examples of such behavioral details are the effects of time of the day on activity type choice for scheduling and on the corresponding time expenditure; the effects of travel time requirements on activity type choice for scheduling and on the corresponding time expenditure, etc. Among many other findings, the empirical model reveals that on the weekend the utility of scheduling Recreational activities for later in the day and over a longer duration of time is high. It also reveals that on the weekend, Social activity scheduling is not affected by travel time requirements, but longer travel time requirements typically lead to longer-duration social activities.     

Analyzing the time frame for the transition from leisure-cyclist to commuter-cyclist

A recent survey reported that many commuter-cyclists had enjoyed leisure bicycling on a regular basis prior to becoming a commuter-cyclist. While bicycling for leisure, it is assumed that they considered various factors that led them to consider becoming commuter-cyclists. This study began with the question of how long it would take for a leisure-cyclist to become a commuter-cyclist, and it focused on the time that elapsed between leisure-cyclists transitioning to commuter-cycling. In order to analyze the time frame, it was hypothesized that the probability that a leisure-cyclist would become a commuter-cyclist at a certain time would be conditional on the duration that elapsed from the onset of leisure cycling till that time, which represents the “snowballing” or “inertial” dynamics of duration. A robust methodology, which is known as the “hazard model,” was adopted to accommodate such characteristics of a time period. In addition, various external covariates such as individual-specific characteristics, variables associated with the current or previous commuting mode, supply variables regarding bicycle facilities, and individual latent propensities were adopted to account for the duration of changes that would be generally applicable. As a result, many useful results were derived that could be used in fomenting policies to promote cycling to work. It was found that government should invest in establishing segregated lanes for leisure- and commuter-cyclists. It also turned out that a long distance to work hinders a leisure-cyclist from progressing to commuter-cycling. According to the results, young white-collar workers who live in high-rise apartments and enjoy intensive leisure-cycling in groups, are a good target toward whom promotions for commuter-cycling should be focused. However, an unfortunate development was that, when compared with car-commuters, it was found that transit-commuters are more likely to become commuter-cyclists.     

浅谈榆林至佳县高速公路总体设计理念

介绍了陕西省榆林至佳县高速公路勘察设计总体设计思路,特别针对该地区沙漠及黄土的地理特性,在设计中树立全面、协调、可持续发展的科学发展观,贯彻了“以人为本”的思想．增强了环境保护意识,充分体现了“安全、环保、节约、耐久、和谐”的公路设计理念。