Estimating the trip generation impacts of autonomous vehicles on car travel in Victoria,Australia

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) potentially increase vehicle travel by reducing travel and parking costs and by providing improved mobility to those who are too young to drive or older people. The increase in vehicle travel could be generated by both trip diversion from other modes and entirely new trips. Existing studies however tend to overlook AVs’ impacts on entirely new trips. There is a need to develop a methodology for estimating possible impacts of AVs on entirely new trips across all age groups. This paper explores the impacts of AVs on car trips using a case study of Victoria, Australia. A new methodology for estimating entirely new trips associated with AVs is proposed by measuring gaps in travel need at different life stages. Results show that AVs would increase daily trips by 4.14% on average. The 76+ age group would have the largest increase of 18.5%, followed by the 18–24 age group and the 12–17 age group with 14.6 and 11.1% respectively. If car occupancy remains constant in AV scenarios, entirely new trips and trip diversions from public transport and active modes would lead to a 7.31% increase in car trips. However increases in car travel are substantially magnified by reduced car occupancy rates, a trend evidenced throughout the world. Car occupancy would need to increase by at least 5.3–7.3% to keep car trips unchanged in AV scenarios.     

About attitudes and perceptions: finding the proper way to consider latent variables in discrete choice models

We provide an in-depth theoretical discussion about the differences between individual-specific latent constructs (representing attitudes, for example, but also other characteristics such as values or personality traits) and alternative-specific latent constructs (that may represent perceptions) affecting the choice-making process of individuals; we also carry out an empirical exercise to analyze their effects. This discussion is of importance, as the majority of papers considering attitudinal latent variables just take these as attributes affecting directly the utility of a certain alternative, while systematic taste variations are rarely considered and perceptions are mostly ignored. The results of our case study show that perceptions may indeed affect the decision making process and that they are able to capture a significant part of the variability that is normally explained by alternative specific constants. Furthermore, our results indicate that attitudes may be a reason for systematic taste variations, and that a proper categorization of latent variables, in accordance with underlying theory, may outperform the customary assumption of linearity.     

Car today,gone tomorrow: The ephemeral car in low-income,immigrant and minority families

Most transportation research in the United States uses cross-sectional, “snapshot” data to understand levels of car access. Might this cross-sectional approach mask considerable variation over time and within households? We use a panel dataset, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), for the years 1999–2011 to test this question. We find that for most families, being “carless” is a temporary condition. While 13 % of families in the US are carless in any given year, only 5 % of families are carless for all seven waves of data we examine in the PSID. We also find that poor families, immigrants, and people of color (particularly, blacks) are considerably more likely to transition into and out car ownership frequently and are less likely to have a car in any survey year than are non-poor families, the US-born, and whites.     

Predictors of car use habit strength in an urban Norwegian public

Car use in urban areas carries well known risks for negative effects on urban quality of life, the environment and land use. Previous psychological work has mainly studied the habit of using a car as a predictor variable, whereas only a few studies have focused on psychological factors that may underlie and shape the habit. The aim of the present study is to examine demographic characteristics, spatial variables and social–psychological factors associated with car habit use strength. The results are based on a survey conducted in a random urban population-based sample with car access recruited from the Norwegian population registry (n = 878). Car use habit strength was stronger among male than female respondents and tended to be weak with a lower income. Multivariate logistic regression showed that reporting pro-environmental attitudes and personal norms predicted a weak car use habit strength, while reporting strong priority of flexibility and a long distance from home to work predicted a strong car use habit strength. Car use habit is influenced by multiple demographic, spatial and social–psychological factors, which should be carefully addressed in interventions aimed at reducing the likelihood of developing a strong car habit strength.     

Overcoming barriers to cycling: understanding frequency of cycling in a University setting and the factors preventing commuters from cycling on a regular basis

Much local and regional transport policy is attempting to increase cycling as an everyday mode of travel through infrastructure changes, education initiatives, and safety campaigns. While considerable research has examined the influence of the built form on cycling, less research has examined the barriers that prevent people who wish to cycle more (as part of their routine) from doing so. This study examines several factors influencing the frequency by which people do (and do not) cycle in a campus setting in a large metropolitan area. Mixed methods reveal differences between barriers to cycling as well as the relative strength of these barriers across categories of age, sex, and current mode used. A multinomial logit model, which controls for residential self-selection effects, predicts whether and how often a respondent cycles based on socio-demographic and trip characteristics. The presence of cycle paths is found to be strongly associated with a higher frequency of cycling commutes. Additionally, an analysis of stated barriers reveals effort and a lack of safety as the most important barriers to potential cyclists. Finally, a qualitative analysis of respondents’ open-ended responses confirms the influence of bicycle paths, but reveals other factors such as the importance of improved interactions among various street users. Findings from this research can be of benefit to transportation engineers and planners who are aiming to increase the use of cycling among various groups of commuters.     

Latent lifestyle and mode choice decisions when travelling short distances

In the quest for sustainable travel, short distances appear the most amenable to curbing the use of the automobile. Existing studies about short trips evaluate the potential of shifting from the automobile to sustainable travel options while considering the population as homogeneous in its preferences and its tendency to accept these alternative travel options as realistic. However, this assumption appears quite unrealistic and the current study offers a different perspective: the mode choices when travelling short distances are likely related to lifestyle decisions. Short trip chains of a representative sample of the Danish population in the Copenhagen Region were analysed, and more specifically a latent class choice model was estimated to uncover latent lifestyle groups and choice specific travel behaviour. Results show that four lifestyle groups are identified in the population: car oriented, bicycle oriented, public transport oriented and public transport averse. Each lifestyle group has specific perceptions of travel time (with extremely different rates of substitution between alternative travel modes), transfer penalties in public transport trip chains, weather influence (especially on active travel modes), and trip purpose effect on mode selection. Consequently, when thinking about measures to increase the appeal of sustainable travel options, decision-makers should look at specific individuals within the population and more sensitive individuals to comfort and level-of-service improvements across the lifestyle groups.     

主要潜水器规范圆柱形耐压壳体设计计算方法比较分析

针对潜水器环肋圆柱壳耐压结构,分析比较了CCS、RUS、ABS、GL各船级社潜水器规范中安全系数、强度计算方法、稳定性计算方法和允许工作压力控制要求,结合3个算例,总结了各规范的设计计算特点,分析结果可为修改完善我国潜水器设计规范提供参考.     

两自由度振动轮式硅微陀螺仪的机理研究

叙述了两自由度振动轮式硅微陀螺仪的组成、工作原理、建立了数学模型,分析了各种误差,提出了减小误差的方法。     

门机行走减速器螺栓防松措施

1减速器螺栓松动的原因 M10-30标准型门机行走减速器为直角传动的齿轮减速器,与M10-25型门机的蜗轮减速器相比,它的传动效率和耐磨性都较高,但该减速器在使用中连接螺栓容易出现松动.