A cause of oversupply and failure in the shipping market: measuring herding behavior effects

ABSTRACT

The shipping market is volatile. In general, the shipping market cycle shows four stages, through—recovery—peak—collapse, while a upward trend lasts for 7~8 years and a downward trend for another 7~8 years. So the market’s bubble is not sustainable but always ends in a recessionary trend. The economic cycle is common knowledge and an axiom of the shipping industry, but many ship-owners take no account of it. Previous study stated that ship-owners’ fears, triggered by a violently changeable market, make them mimic the crowd mind or herd mentality, following market sentiment. This study aims to measure the effects of herding behavior (HB), triggered by market sentiment, on the shipping market. We attempt to address two research questions: (1) How does HB arise, and what course does it follow? (2) How many vessels (or how many tons) were purchased under the influence of HB? We estimate that 50.5% (227.8 vessels) of the total vessels or 30.4% (3,670.2 tons) of the total tonnage were purchased under the influence of HB. Looking at international finance, we found that ship investment HB is a very strong factor of the recent shipping market, at least in Korea.     

Full scale ice sea trials of Korean ice breaking research vessel ‘Araon’ on the big floes near Antarctica

A speed sea trial was performed in the Amundsen Sea in February and March of 2012. The Korean ice breaking research vessel “Araon” was used to check speed performance on the big floes. Two of ice trial cases were carried out. We describe the time history of location, the engine power, and the revolutions per minute during the ice trial, and the trajectory of the ship. Additionally, the measured ice properties are considered and discussed. The ice trial results were analyzed according to variation in ice thicknesses, ice strength, propulsion power, and the speed level of the ship. Our analysis results are compared to model test results and ice trial results. A correction to the target ice thickness was used to compare the power and speed relation in the same ice thickness because it is easy to know the relative speed performance of the ship. The Hamburgische Schiffbau-Versuchs Anstalt method was applied for the correction. The speed of Araon in big floes was higher than the speed in level ice. The speed after the correction at 10 MW of power and 103 cm of ice thickness was 5.4 knots based on analysis results.     

Charting a New Paradigm of Container Hub Port Development Policy: The Asian Doctrine

This paper proposes the conceptual model of the Asian (Port) Doctrine to explain the successful development of top ranking container ports in Asia during the past four decades. This paper draws a new paradigm for the role of government as a third governance approach in addition to Anglo-Saxon and European doctrines by describing how Asian countries have developed container hub ports by investing in infrastructure as social overhead capital to support export-led growth. We survey characteristics and outcomes in major Asian container port developments and one European port in terms of a port development policy. The findings are presented in a comparative overview of government investment in functional elements of port, maritime infrastructure and landside connections to container ports. This paper confirms that the existing two doctrines—Anglo-Saxon and European doctrines—are not sufficient to explain the Asian success in major container port developments. The proposed framework contends that a newly proposed Asian Doctrine can accomplish this with the help of cross-subsidization, strategic and administered port pricing mechanism.     

Incorporating e-Technology to Advantage in a Greener Taxi Industry and its Impact on Driving Performance and Safety

Abstract

New technologies, especially advances in telecommunications, have had profound impacts on everyday life and brought even greater changes to some business models. Taxis represent one of the major modes of transportation in urban areas but they face a number of problems, including their environmental impacts. The status of the taxi industry in Taiwan is revealed and analyzed in this study. A new business model for the extensive and popular use of smart phones is proposed. However, it is important to know whether their use is both effective and safe. Two field experiments were executed to examine the effects on taxi drivers of using a navigation system installed in a GPS PDA phone. The results revealed that the efficiency of drivers using such a portable navigation system was better than those relying on paper maps in unfamiliar urban areas. Furthermore, performance in terms of safety was also better than those who used an on-board navigation system. In summary, incorporating e-technology can promote a taxi company's competitiveness and a driver's performance and safety as well as offer environmental benefits.     

Approach to functional safety-compliant ECU design for electro-mechanical brake systems

In this paper, we propose a design approach to a functional safety-compliant ECU for an electro-mechanical brake (EMB) control system or an electronic wedge brake (EWB) control system. Brake actuators in a brake-by-wire (BBW) system such as EMB or EWB are characterized by the safety-critical functions which are now executed by using many electric and electronic devices with application software. Based on hazard analysis and risk assessments of the automotive functional safety standard ISO 26262, the proposed EMB control system should be ASIL-D-compliant, which is the highest ASIL level. To this end, a hardware and a software design method is introduced to implement functionl safety-oriented monitoring functions which are based on an asymmetric dual-core architecture with an external watchdog processor. It is shown by using EMB hardware-In-the-Loop-Simulation (HILS) that the proposed ECU design approach is very effective when a hardware fault or software execution faults occur in the EMB ECU, moreover, this functional safety-compliant design can be well combiled with the sensor fault-tolerant control logic.     

Node-based scheduling method for easy migration from CAN to FlexRay in in-vehicle networking systems

As vehicles become more intelligent, in-vehicle networking (IVN) systems such as controller area network (CAN) are essential for the convenience and safety of drivers. To expand the applicability of IVN systems, attention is currently being focused on chassis networking systems that require increased network capacity and real-time capabilities. FlexRay was developed to replace CAN protocol in chassis networking systems, to remedy the shortage of transmission capacity and unsatisfactory real-time transmission delay of conventional CAN. However, FlexRay network systems require a complex scheduling method, which is a barrier to their implementation as chassis networking systems. In particular, if we want to migrate from a CAN network to a FlexRay network using the well-defined CAN message database, which has been specifically constructed for chassis networking systems by automotive vendors, a new type of scheduling method is necessary to reduce scheduling efforts during the software development process. This paper presents a node-based scheduling method for easy migration from a CAN network to a FlexRay network system. To demonstrate the feasibility of the technique, its performance is evaluated in terms of various software complexity indices.     

Comparison study on characteristics of nano-sized particle number distribution by using condensation particle counter calibrated with spray and soot type particle generation methods

In the year 2011, the Particle Measurement Program (PMP) in Europe started the regulation of the diesel vehicle’s nano-sized particle number density (PN) due to its high degree of harm to the human body. Concretely, the standard level of PN emission was introduced in the Euro 5+ and 6 emissions regulation with a limit (<6.0 × 10¹¹#/km) for diesel light-duty vehicle. Therefore, the determination of suitable and sophisticated instruments for reliable particle sampling and analysis was essential in taking exact experimental data. Now, among the PN emission measuring devices suggested by the PMP, condensation particle counter (CPC) is a key equipment for measuring the particle number density in real time and it has been used extensively. However, CPC can cause different results depending on operating conditions of the saturator and condensation that induce different rates of particle growth. This study was conducted to analyze the effect of CPC calibrated by a two-particle generator with spray and soot type methods applied on the nano-sized particle distribution’s parameters such as number concentration and linearity. Also, in order to ensure the reliability for particle sensor system named as PPS, which had emerged as a useful diagnostic to making spatially and temporally resolved quantitative measurements of diesel PN concentration, it was compared with calibrated CPC system. As a result, nano-sized particle measuring system with CPC calibrated by spray type particle generator had a much higher counting efficiency, indicating a larger nano size available than soot type particle generator. And, comparative experimental results on the correlation between the particle number of CPC to a reflectance PPS system showed that above 5,000 #/cm ³ in number concentrations measured by CPC as well as PPS were found to be similar with good linear relationship.     

Vehicle velocity estimation using effective inertia for an in-wheel electric vehicle

In this study, a vehicle velocity estimation algorithm for an in-wheel electric vehicle is proposed. This algorithm estimates the vehicle velocity using the concept of effective inertia, which is based on the motor torque, the angular velocity of each wheel and vehicle acceleration. Effective inertia is a virtual mass that changes according to the state of a vehicle, such as acceleration, deceleration, turning or driving on a low friction road. The performance of the proposed vehicle velocity estimation algorithm was verified in various conditions that included straight driving, circle driving and low friction road driving using the in-wheel electric vehicle that was equipped with an in-wheel system in each of its rear wheels.     

Urea-SCR system optimization with various combinations of mixer types and decomposition pipe lengths

The demand for NO_x after-treatment system has increased dramatically due to the stricter NO_x emission regulations for diesel vehicles. The urea-SCR system is one of the NO_x after-treatment methods found to be quite effective to meet the regulation requirement enforced by various authorities including the Euro-6. In order to develop an effective urea-SCR system, it is critical to establish an even distribution of reductant over the catalyst surface since this favorable distribution can increase reduction reaction and in turn, improve NO_x conversion efficiencies. In the current study, a number of design variations of the urea-SCR system which included two mixer types and three decomposition pipe lengths, were evaluated systematically using CFD analysis and experimental measurements. The purpose of the CFD analysis was to estimate the distribution of reductant within the urea-SCR system with a specific configuration and the purpose of the engine emission test was to measure the amount of NO_x reduction, respectively. The results from the systematic analysis revealed the relation between the reductant distribution over the SCR and the performance of the NO_x reduction.