A reliability‐based network design problem

This paper presents a reliability‐based network design problem. A network reliability concept is embedded into the continuous network design problem in which travelers' route choice behavior follows the stochastic user equilibrium assumption. A new capacity‐reliability index is introduced to measure the probability that all of the network links are operated below their capacities when serving different traffic patterns deviating from the average condition. The reliability‐based network design problem is formulated as a bi‐level program in which the lower level sub‐program is the probit‐based stochastic user equilibrium problem and the upper level sub‐program is the maximization of the new capacity reliability index. The lower level sub‐program is solved by a variant of the method of successive averages using the exponential average to represent the learning process of network users on a daily basis that results in the daily variation of traffic‐flow pattern, and Monte Carlo stochastic loading. The upper level sub‐program is tackled by means of genetic algorithms. A numerical example is used to demonstrate the concept of the proposed framework.     

An actuary method for the estimation and comparison of urban bus transit cost of services

This paper presents a new cost allocation method developed for estimating the fully-allocated costs of the excess peak hour bus transit service provided by two public transit systems. The estimates were produced for the explicit purpose of carrying out a realistic comparison of these costs and the costs of the potential provision of the same service by private operators. The method utilizes the same service data for the analysis. The pragmatic estimation of the fully allocated costs of service by the public and private sectors enables a more accurate estimation of potential cost savings. Sensitivity analysis was also performed using the same costing procedure to determine the range of cost savings that are feasible in a competitive contract arrangement of private sector providers. The new method separates costs of the direct provision of service from other indirect costs and thus facilitates the identification of each cost item and its significance in comparative cost estimates.     

Guidelines for urban development in Louisiana's coastal wetlands

Abstract

Coastal Louisiana is currently experiencing extensive urban growth as its natural resources are exploited. Such growth is projected to continue for the foreseeable future. This article examines problems encountered in developing wetland areas for community use. The urban development process in the coastal zone is examined using a problem‐identification methodology. This methodology consists of examining each of the stages of wetlands development sequentially, determining potential problems and their results, and specifying how the regulatory system for urban development needs strengthening in order to mitigate these problems. For those development practices determined not to be regulated at all or inadequately regulated, local ordinance amendments and other restrictive measures applicable to specific development stages are proposed. The study concludes with a brief discussion of a goals‐oriented process for deriving future urban development regulations for the enhancement of regional planning efforts.     

The role of accident exposure in transport system safety evaluations I: Intersection and link site exposure

Realistic predictions of the likely safety performance of advanced transport systems will need to draw on the knowledge accumulated from a large number of safety evaluations which have already been undertaken for existing transport systems. In particular, safety evaluations of future technologies must avoid the methodological pitfalls experienced in extensively researched areas, such as road safety, if such evaluations are to be meaningful. This paper reviews the use of exposure for a broad range of road safety studies, and concludes that unsatisfactory treatment of exposure is a common failing in past evaluations of the effectiveness of road accident countermeasures. Whilst a broad range of safety analyses is discussed, the use of exposure in site safety studies is emphasized. A follow-up paper will extend the discussion to other aspects of accident exposure including exposure measures for large groups of transport system users.     

Peak period tolls: Precepts and prospects

This article presents the economic rationale for road pricing and provides some scale on the magnitude of peak period tolls that might be justified. It discusses the impacts of such tolls on congestion, air quality and economic development and suggests a long term strategy towards areawide implementation of peak period pricing. It discusses current trends which are increasing the likelihood for implementation of congestion pricing and toll roads in the future. In particular, it discusses some aspects of the 1991 Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) which will eliminate some of the current restraints on congestion pricing and toll highways.Abbreviations ETC Electronic toll collection - FHWA Federal Highway Administration - HOV High occupancy vehicle - ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act - LOS Level of service - TCM Transportation control measure - V/C Volume-to-capacity ratio - VMT Vehicle mile(s) of travel - vphpl Vehicles per hour per lane     

The impact of the Panama Canal expansion on Panama’s maritime cluster

The Panama Canal is currently in the process of a major expansion effort. After the new set of locks is opened in 2016, significantly larger ships can traverse the Canal. The current lock system has been in place for over 100 years, even though the size of ocean-going vessels has expanded considerably. One impact is on Panama’s maritime cluster. It is expected that the expansion will result in greater demand for many of the goods and services provided by the cluster. This article examines the economic impact of the Canal expansion on Panama’s maritime cluster. Clusters of economic activity can result in economies of agglomeration and supply chain network effects. Without these economies and network effects, clusters would not have a competitive advantage over businesses that are not in a cluster. It is expected that with a larger cluster, both agglomerative economies and network effects will increase. But, which cluster components will grow and which will not be affected to a great extent? To what extent will bottlenecks appear? These are some of the questions that this article addresses.     

A game-theoretical approach for modeling competitions in a maritime supply chain

ABSTRACT

To accommodate the structural changes in logistics, competitions along a maritime supply chain are more intensive than before. This paper adopts a two-stage noncooperative game-theoretical approach to model the horizontal and vertical interactions among liners and ports. In the first stage, Bertrand game is applied to model the interactions between two liners. When the shipping line decides which port to call, a multinomial Logit model is applied. In the second stage, Bertrand game is applied to model the competitions between two ports. Nash equilibrium is derived by solving the Bertrand games. A numerical example is provided as a case study.     

Integrating Climate and Ocean Change Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. Here, we address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.     

Using kinematic driving data to detect sleep apnea treatment adherence

People spend a significant amount of time behind the wheel of a car. Recent advances in data collection facilitate continuously monitoring this behavior. Previous work demonstrates the importance of this data in driving safety but does not extended beyond the driving domain. One potential extension of this data is to identify driver states related to health conditions such as obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). We collected driving data and medication adherence from a sample of 75 OSA patients over 3.5 months. We converted speed and acceleration behaviors to symbols using symbolic aggregate approximation and converted these symbols to pattern frequencies using a sliding window. The resulting frequency data was matched with treatment adherence information. A random forest model was trained on the data and evaluated using a held-aside test dataset. The random forest model detects lapses in treatment adherence. An assessment of variable importance suggests that the important patterns of driving in classification correspond to route decisions and patterns that may be associated with drowsy driving. The success of this approach suggests driving data may be valuable for evaluating new treatments, analyzing side effects of medications, and that the approach may benefit other drowsiness detection algorithms.