An actuary method for the estimation and comparison of urban bus transit cost of services

This paper presents a new cost allocation method developed for estimating the fully-allocated costs of the excess peak hour bus transit service provided by two public transit systems. The estimates were produced for the explicit purpose of carrying out a realistic comparison of these costs and the costs of the potential provision of the same service by private operators. The method utilizes the same service data for the analysis. The pragmatic estimation of the fully allocated costs of service by the public and private sectors enables a more accurate estimation of potential cost savings. Sensitivity analysis was also performed using the same costing procedure to determine the range of cost savings that are feasible in a competitive contract arrangement of private sector providers. The new method separates costs of the direct provision of service from other indirect costs and thus facilitates the identification of each cost item and its significance in comparative cost estimates.     

Household trip generation choice—Alternative empirical approaches

Trip generation models have generally received less attention than other aspects of travel decision making. This article presents some explorations into the structure of trip decisions for shopping, using data from weekly shopping diaries. The paper compares alternative formulations of the naturally-ordered choice model used by Sheffi (1979) to avoid the problems inherent in multinomial logit models. Firstly, imposing cross-alternative restrictions on some of the coefficient values is termed the constrained model. Secondly, when no such restrictions are imposed, the model decomposes into a sequence of binary models, and this is termed the unconstrained model, which can be used to test the validity of the restrictions. The variables used include both shopping expenditures and locational factors, both of which are found to play a key role in shopping travel decisions, as well as more conventional socio-economic variables. A clearer understanding of the role of car ownership in travel decisions is obtained.     

Economic policies and seaports: The diversity of port policies

This paper contrasts the economic policies adopted towards seaports by different countries in terms of their approaches to national, regional or local control. Various examples are presented and described, together with some of the difficulties that have been encountered. Examples are cited where national, regional and local governments have become involved, even though constitutional provisions appeared to present this. It is argued that national, regional and local governments all have interests in the efficiency of ports from various points of view; hence all should be involved. The arguments for and difficulties experienced in centralized planning and co-ordination are also discussed.

The variety of activities directly undertaken by port authorities is discussed, with the extreme positions labelled 'landlord' and 'comprehensive'. The remarkable variety of intermediate positions is also described. Whilst oversimplification is dangerous, the opportunities for expanding the private sector are analysed, even to the extent of wondering whether public sector port authorities are needed at all. This, therefore is the subject of the next paper.     

Monitoring urban spatial dynamics

As urban systems increase in size and diversity, the factors which influence spatial change increase in number and their interactions become more complex. Increasing emphasis is thus being placed by some governments and agencies on regular reviews of policies and programs, to ensure that they are consistent with and facilitate the evolving urban form. Consequently, the monitoring of urban transport and activity systems is of increasing importance, to aid the review processes. This paper considers the progress which has been made in and use of procedures for monitoring urban, transport-related spatial changes. The specification, estimation and presentation of appropriate indicators is briefly discussed. Experience with the use of spatial monitoring procedures on data for two Australian cities has revealed several possible implications for transport investment practice and the development of monitoring and modelling procedures. These are discussed and the paper then indicates the approach which is currently being taken at ARRB towards developing a monitoring system.     

Cost benefit analysis of urban minibus operations

Earlier work by the Transport Studies Group of the Polytechnic of Central London on minibus development in Britain for the Transport and Road Research Laboratory provided a financial analysis of intensive urban minibus operation. This is taken as the basis for the application of cost-benefit analysis. Unit operating cost savings and passenger benefits are taken into account, using typical demand elasticities derived from earlier work. Particular attention is paid to the problem of evaluating passenger benefits for which waiting time at the roadside is not necessarily an adequate proxy. A direct survey of passenger waiting times indicates that these do not necessarily decrease when a higher-frequency minibus service replaces a conventional bus service but the improved convenience produces an increase in ridership which may be assessed in terms of a demand curve shift to estimate benefits obtained.     

The Melbourne Dockers war

In this paper, the author focuses attentioon on the so-called Melbourne Dockers War of 1971-3. Having descrided its mains events, he goes on to analyse of the unprecedented level of violence in the milieuof trade union elections. He traces this in part to the influx of criminal elements into the Federated Ship-Painters and Dockers Union of Australia (FSPDU) during the Second World War, and to the more immediate disagreement between rival factors concerning the direction which union activities, legal or othewise, should follow. He then assesses the implications of the episode for Australian politics, law and public administration in general.     

Spin glass and the interactions of congestion and emissions: An exploratory step

This paper models traffic congestion formation on highways and roads by recognizing the centrality of dynamical systems and using concepts from complexity theory as imbedded in the spin glasses analogue. Further, it explores the concept of how an increase in air pollution caused by vehicle exhaust emission can be traced to traffic congestion, specifically to the acceleration/deceleration of vehicles on the roads. First, spin glass is introduced and then by applying the two-dimensional x − y Ising model and defining a Hamiltonian (based on Edwards-Anderson and Mattis models of spin glass systems) for a system of vehicles on the road, derivations are made of the specific friction of congestion and the bulk modulus of congestion using the Gibbs-Boltzmann statistic. Similarly using the interactions of vehicles with each other and the resulting accelerations and decelerations of vehicles as the basis for exhaust emissions, derivations are made of a specificity of exhaust emissions. These are analogues to the entropy models of thermodynamics. This series of derivations serves as an analytical model for detecting incidents of congestion and increase in air pollution due to exhaust emissions in transportation systems.     

The competitive environment of a service industry: the examples of the U.K.-Continent passenger sea ferry services

The paper examines an international service sector (passenger sea ferry services between the U.K. and continental Europe) from the perspective of its competitive environment. Porter's five forces model forms the basis of the analysis of the market illustrated by recent develoments. Within this context the barriers to entry into and exit from the market are considered in detail. Recently, there have been many changes in market structure, and with increased competition, including that from the Channel Tunnel, it may be necessary to pool services. This will improve ferry competition with other forms of transport, but will require the brand awareness of ferries to shift from the ferry company to the ferry service offer. The service offer will need to be more clearly defined.