Bicycle mode share in China: a city-level analysis of long term trends

In the past 15 years, cities in China have experienced big changes in socioeconomic and traffic conditions, resulting in a long term change in bicycle use. This study aims to quantify the changes in bicycle mode share in Chinese cities and explore the potential causes. Based on data from 51 cities, it is found that bicycle mode share at the city level decreased gradually in the past. Conventional bicycle mode share decreased with a rate of 3 % per year, but electric bicycle mode share increased with a rate of 2 % per year. The correlations between city features such as demographics and built environments and bicycle mode share at different city sizes are compared. The generalized linear models are estimated to relate the changes in the share of different trip modes to various city-level factors. The results show that the bicycle mode share in a city is impacted by factors including city area size, population density, number of cars, percentage of local road mileage among all roads, and trip purpose. Possible reasons for the changes in bicycle uses in Chinese cities are explored and policy implications are discussed.     

Cost and time damping: evidence from aggregate rail direct demand models

There is a significant body of evidence from both disaggregate choice modelling literature and practical travel demand forecasting that the responsiveness to cost and possibly to time diminishes with journey length. This has, in Britain at least, been termed ‘Cost Damping’, and is recognised in guidance issued by the UK Department for Transport. However, the consistency of the effect across modes and data types has not been established. Cost damping, if it exists, affects both the forecasting of demand and our understanding of behaviour. This paper aims to investigate the evidence for cost and time damping in rail demand using aggregate rail ticket sales data. The rail ticket sales data in Britain has, for many years, formed the basis of analysis of a wide range of impacts of rail demand. It records the number of tickets sold between station pairs, and it is generally felt to provide a reasonably accurate reflection of travel demand. However, the consistency of these direct demand models with choice modelling and highway demand model structures has not been investigated. Rail direct demand models estimated by ticket sales data indicate only slight variation in the fare elasticity with distance, as is evidenced in the largest meta-analysis of price elasticities conducted to date (Wardman in J Transp Econ Policy 48(3):367–384, 2014). This study of UK elasticities shows strong variation between urban and inter-urban trips, presumably a segmentation at least in part by purpose, but less remaining variation by trip length. A lack of variation by length supports the hypothesis of cost damping, because constant cost sensitivity would imply that fare elasticity would increase strongly with distance, because of the increasing impact of higher fares at longer distances. In this paper we indicate that rail direct demand models have some consistency of behavioural paradigm with utility based choice models used in highway planning. We go on to use rail demand data to estimate time and fare elasticities in the context of various cost damping functions. Our empirical contribution is to estimate time elasticities on a basis directly comparable with cost elasticities and to show that the phenomenon of cost damping is strongly present in ticket sales data. This finding implies that cost damping should be included in models intended for multimodal analysis, which may otherwise give incorrect predictions.     

Isolating high-priority metro and feeder bus transfers using smart card data

Fixed-rail metro (or ‘subway’) infrastructure is generally unable to provide access to all parts of the city grid. Consequently, feeder bus lines are an integral component of urban mass transit systems. While passengers prefer a seamless transfer between these two distinct transportation services, each service’s operations are subject to a different set of factors that contribute to metro-bus transfer delay. Previous attempts to understand transfer delay were limited by the availability of tools to measure the time and cost associated with passengers’ transfer experience. This paper uses data from smart card systems, an emerging technology that automatically collects passenger trip data, to understand transfer delay. The primary objective of this study is to use smart card data to derive a reproducible methodology that isolates high priority transfer points between the metro system and its feeder-bus systems. The paper outlines a methodology to identify transfer transactions in the smart card dataset, estimate bus headways without the aid of geographic location information, estimate three components of the total transfer time (walking time, waiting time, and delay time), and isolate high-priority transfer pairs. The paper uses smart card data from Nanjing, China as a case study. The results isolate eight high priority metro-bus transfer pairs in the Nanjing metro system and finally, offers several targeted measures to improve transfer efficiency.     

斜交拱涵异形拱圈有限元分析

以4 m跨径为例,对不同斜交角度和支承长度的异形拱圈进行有限元计算,通过分析其受力和变形特点,发现各参数对拱圈受力性能的影响具有相似的规律,且当短边支承长度接近拱圈外径时,不同斜交角度的异形拱圈的受力性能和变形趋于一致。     

C^4ISR作战系统仿真建模方法研究

对于建设C^4ISR系统来说,系统需求工程的出发点之一应该是基于对作战的描述,同时对目前作战过程进行描述的若干方法进行分析对比,结合实际情况对作战过程描述进行讨论并给出新的切入点。文章给出了一种实现C1ISR仿真系统和实装模拟系统互联的设计方案。该方案使用基于HLA的代理联邦将分布在仿真系统网络上的各个仿真节点和实装系统连接到C^4ISR仿真系统中,并通过HLA／RTI完成仿真系统与实装系统间的交互。     

超宽带雷达和高功率微波武器一体化设计

介绍具有武器效应雷达的研究现状;分析超宽带雷达（UWBR）和高功率微波武器（HPMW）的组成、基本原理,总结两者的异同点;结合国内外现有技术成果,探讨UWBR和HPMW一体化设计的可行性及发展趋势;参照数字阵列雷达,构想出一种UWBR和HPMW一体化概念设计结构图。     

Oracle备份策略在舰船电子信息系统中的应用探索

从舰船电子信息系统的发展趋势出发,分析进行数据库备份的必要性。介绍舰船电子信息系统所采用的Oracle数据库的备份技术,给出备份方案的设计与实现方法,为未来数据库备份在舰船电子信息系统中的应用进行有益的尝试。     

基于遗传算法的雷达组网极化管理

为了增强雷达组网系统反应能力,生成稳定合理的极化管理方案,文章给出了一种基于遗传算法的雷达组网极化管理解决方案,并给出了应用遗传算法生成极化方案的具体实现描述,仿真结果表明该方法运算速度较快,结果精度较高,对极化方案的生成研究具有一定的参考价值。     

基于智能Agent技术的雷达反干扰控制模型

为提高雷达快速反应、对抗干扰的能力,对雷达终端的反干扰控制模型进行了研究。介绍了智能Agent技术,建立了雷达反干扰控制模型,阐述了各模块的功能,并详细分析了雷达反干扰智能控制决策机理。并可提高单雷达的环境对抗能力。     

简化UKF算法在SINS／GPS组合导航中的应用

针对SINS／GPS组合导航系统的特点,建立了系统的非线性误差模型。根据系统状态方程为非线性而观测方程为线性的特点,将一种简化的UKF方法（Rao-Blackwellisation Additive Unscented Kalman Filter,RBAUKF）用于SINS／GPS组合导航系统中,RBAUKF采用较少的采样点数目和简化的更新算法,降低了计算复杂度。最后,在机动条件下,进行了SINS／GPS组合导航实验仿真。仿真结果表明,RBAUKF相比EKF具有更高的滤波精度,更适合在SINS／GPS组合导航系统中应用。