Large-scale application of MILATRAS: case study of the Toronto transit network

This paper documents the efforts to operationalize the conceptual framework of MIcrosimulation Learning-based Approach to TRansit Assignment (MILATRAS) and its component models of departure time and path choices. It presents a large-scale real-world application, namely the multi-modal transit network of Toronto which is operated by the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC). This large-scale network is represented by over 500 branches with more than 10,000 stops. About 332,000 passenger-agents are modelled to represent the demand for the TTC in the AM peak period. A learning-based departure time and path choice model was adopted using the concept of mental models for the modelling of the transit assignment problem. The choice model parameters were calibrated such that the entropy of the simulated route loads was optimized with reference to the observed route loads, and validated with individual choices. A Parallel Genetic Algorithm engine was used for the parameter calibration process. The modelled route loads, based on the calibrated parameters, greatly approximate the distribution underlying the observed loads. 75% of the exact sequence of transfer point choices were correctly predicted by the off-stop/on-stop choice mechanism. The model predictability of the exact sequence of route transfers was about 60%. In this application, transit passengers were assumed to plan their transit trip based on their experience with the transportation network; with no prior (or perfect) knowledge of service performance.     

Simulating the impacts of household travel on greenhouse gas emissions,urban air quality,and population exposure

This paper establishes a link between an activity-based model for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), dynamic traffic assignment, emission modelling, and air quality simulation. This provides agent-based output that allows vehicle emissions to be tracked back to individuals and households who are producing them. In addition, roadway emissions are dispersed and the resulting ambient air concentrations are linked with individual time-activity patterns in order to assess population exposure to air pollution. This framework is applied to evaluate the effects of a range of policy interventions and 2031 scenarios on the generation of vehicle emissions and greenhouse gases in the GTA. Results show that the predicted increase of approximately 2.6 million people and 1.3 million jobs in the region by 2031 compared to 2001 levels poses a major challenge in achieving meaningful reductions in GHGs and air pollution.     

Analysis of the environmental benefits of a motorcycle idling stop policy at urban intersections

In an attempt to reduce CO₂ emissions from motorized transport, the Taiwanese government introduced an idling stop policy for vehicles in early 2007. This paper seeks to quantify the environmental benefits of the policy based on a stated preference analysis. Motorcyclists were surveyed at urban intersections in Taiwan, to identify the amount of time they would be willing to turn off their engines while waiting at traffic lights (the WTO). A contingent valuation framework based on stated preference questions was designed to determine the WTO. Results obtained from the Spike model showed that the average motorcyclist’s WTO is 82 s. In another analysis, in which other variables were taken into consideration, such as the possibility that the policy will be enacted as legislation, the expected WTO increased to 101 s. In both cases, an idling stop policy would have positive environmental effects, reducing gasoline usage by 1021 L per hour and reducing CO₂ emissions by 0.56 metric tons per hour at the intersection studied during peak periods.     

Discretionary activity location choice: in-home or out-of-home?

This paper examines the location choice associated with discretionary activities (in-home vs. out-of-home). These substitution patterns are important in terms of travel demand as in-home activities do not necessitate travel while out-of-home activities incur travel. Mixed logit models are estimated using an activity dataset (2003 CHASE data) to analyze the factors associated with this choice at the individual activity-level. Results suggest that the attributes of an activity significantly contribute to understanding the likelihood of engaging in out-of-home activities. Activity type interaction terms reveal the varying influence that socio-demographics, activity attributes and travel have over four different activity types modeled. The results reveal that the location choice (in-home vs. out-of-home) is sensitive to travel characteristics. As the travel time and cost increases, an individual is less likely to engage in an activity out-of-home. Compared to passive and social activities, the location of active activities is more sensitive to changes in travel attributes.     

Analysis of cost estimation disclosure in environmental impact statements for surface transportation projects

Reliability in cost estimates in publicly funded projects is more important today than ever with increased governmental funding to infrastructure projects and associated accountability requirements, but surface transportation projects, large and small, in the United States have a legacy of cost overruns. The problems with these overruns start with the cost estimation process before projects begin. Studies have shown that early cost estimations reflect best-case scenarios rather than realistic expectations, and have attributed technical, economic, psychological, and political reasons for underestimation. The primary objectives of this research were to determine how costs have been presented and updated in environmental impact statements, to identify endemic technical problems with cost estimation during the environmental review of surface transportation projects, and to develop recommendations for improving cost estimation and disclosure. Cost estimation methods were analyzed from the documents of 100 projects, including draft environmental impact statements, final environmental impact statements, and records of decision. The study concluded that the lack of guidance on how to include cost estimation in environmental review revealed itself in the level of detail and attention given to estimating costs. Agencies omitted or included various aspects of cost estimation randomly. Professional organizations should fill the gap of the need for specific guidance to cost estimation for environmental review so it can evolve as a state of the practice.     

Managing passenger behavioral intention: an integrated framework for service quality,satisfaction, perceived value,and switching barriers

This paper seeks to improve our understanding of passengers’ behavioral intention by proposing an integrated framework from the attitudinal perspective. According to the literature in marketing research, we establish a causal relationship model that considers “service quality-satisfaction-behavioral intentions” paradigm, perceived value theory, and switching barrier theory. Exploring passengers’ behavioral intention from satisfaction and perceived value help to understand how passengers are attracted by the company, while switching barriers assist in realizing how passengers are “locked” into a relationship with the current company. Furthermore, in order to capture the nature of service quality, we adopt a hierarchical factor structure which serves service quality as the higher-order factor. In this study, coach industry is selected as our research subject. The empirical results, as hypothesized, show that all causal relationships are statistically significant, and perceived value us the most important predictor of satisfaction and passengers’ behavioral intention. In conclusion, the managerial implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

投影变换过程的可靠性评价

传统的投影变换评价仅考虑精度指标,文中指出投影变换的质量评价指标应包括精度、可靠性、可逆性、惟一性、扩展性和效率.就投影变换的可靠性,以两个平面坐标系间严密坐标变换、平面相似变换和多项式变换模型在不同解算点分布下的实验,考察公共点数量、分布、数据相关性等几何条件,与模型性质对其的影响,验证了可靠性指标的必要性、有效性和可行性,并推导出优化变换抗差本领应具备的要件.     

坚持公交优先,发展立体交通,构建市民和谐出行环境

公交优先发展战略是当前许多国家实施可持续交通发展的治本之选,公交优先体现了平民权利的优先.结合《建设部关于优先发展城市公共交通的意见》和南京市交通建设规划现状,对公交优先策略的必要性、实施公交优先的方法与有效措施等问题进行了深入分析,提出了坚持公交优先,发展立体交通,构建市民和谐出行环境的城市交通建设理念.     

螺栓在高温下的蠕变松弛分析

基于非线性理论,运用ANSYS软件建立了螺栓的一维模型。在温度荷载下进行了螺栓的蠕变分析。研究结果对螺栓的有效应用具有一定的指导意义。     

基于合理路径的拥挤路网交通状态分析方法

为防止路网交通拥堵的扩散,考虑路段状态指标饱和度和行程时间的影响,建立了基于合理路径集的路网分析模型.将非拥挤区域从内到外分为控制层、诱导控制层、诱导层和无关层4个层次,反映了路网状态的空间分布和潜在演化趋势.基于交通分配得到的流量,对本文的状态分析模型进行了数值验证,仿真结果表明:各层次路段在路网中的比例随流量的增大而变化,且拥堵区域呈现扩张趋势;高峰时段各层次路段的比例为20%、5%、10%、10%和56%;同层次中饱和度越大的路段对拥堵区域的影响越大.