Cost and time damping: evidence from aggregate rail direct demand models

There is a significant body of evidence from both disaggregate choice modelling literature and practical travel demand forecasting that the responsiveness to cost and possibly to time diminishes with journey length. This has, in Britain at least, been termed ‘Cost Damping’, and is recognised in guidance issued by the UK Department for Transport. However, the consistency of the effect across modes and data types has not been established. Cost damping, if it exists, affects both the forecasting of demand and our understanding of behaviour. This paper aims to investigate the evidence for cost and time damping in rail demand using aggregate rail ticket sales data. The rail ticket sales data in Britain has, for many years, formed the basis of analysis of a wide range of impacts of rail demand. It records the number of tickets sold between station pairs, and it is generally felt to provide a reasonably accurate reflection of travel demand. However, the consistency of these direct demand models with choice modelling and highway demand model structures has not been investigated. Rail direct demand models estimated by ticket sales data indicate only slight variation in the fare elasticity with distance, as is evidenced in the largest meta-analysis of price elasticities conducted to date (Wardman in J Transp Econ Policy 48(3):367–384, 2014). This study of UK elasticities shows strong variation between urban and inter-urban trips, presumably a segmentation at least in part by purpose, but less remaining variation by trip length. A lack of variation by length supports the hypothesis of cost damping, because constant cost sensitivity would imply that fare elasticity would increase strongly with distance, because of the increasing impact of higher fares at longer distances. In this paper we indicate that rail direct demand models have some consistency of behavioural paradigm with utility based choice models used in highway planning. We go on to use rail demand data to estimate time and fare elasticities in the context of various cost damping functions. Our empirical contribution is to estimate time elasticities on a basis directly comparable with cost elasticities and to show that the phenomenon of cost damping is strongly present in ticket sales data. This finding implies that cost damping should be included in models intended for multimodal analysis, which may otherwise give incorrect predictions.     

Isolating high-priority metro and feeder bus transfers using smart card data

Fixed-rail metro (or ‘subway’) infrastructure is generally unable to provide access to all parts of the city grid. Consequently, feeder bus lines are an integral component of urban mass transit systems. While passengers prefer a seamless transfer between these two distinct transportation services, each service’s operations are subject to a different set of factors that contribute to metro-bus transfer delay. Previous attempts to understand transfer delay were limited by the availability of tools to measure the time and cost associated with passengers’ transfer experience. This paper uses data from smart card systems, an emerging technology that automatically collects passenger trip data, to understand transfer delay. The primary objective of this study is to use smart card data to derive a reproducible methodology that isolates high priority transfer points between the metro system and its feeder-bus systems. The paper outlines a methodology to identify transfer transactions in the smart card dataset, estimate bus headways without the aid of geographic location information, estimate three components of the total transfer time (walking time, waiting time, and delay time), and isolate high-priority transfer pairs. The paper uses smart card data from Nanjing, China as a case study. The results isolate eight high priority metro-bus transfer pairs in the Nanjing metro system and finally, offers several targeted measures to improve transfer efficiency.     

隧道照明节能控制系统研究

综合考虑交通量、环境亮度、行车速度、地理环境等因素,基于隧道照明设计与控制的"全局优化"理念,采用"多模式、多等级、智能化、个性化"的控制策略,开发了能够根据公路隧道内外亮度、照度、车流量、车流特点等环境变换因素,自动进行反馈调整隧道内部照明的智能照明控制系统。估算比对同一隧道在使用节能智能控制系统前后年总能耗可知,与原有控制方案相比,节能智能控制系统综合节电30%。     

小郭巨渔港工程防波堤平面布置方案

波浪是渔港建设中最重要的水动力因素,由于外海风浪作用强烈,影响港内渔船泊稳,需修建防波堤挡潮抗浪。从波浪角度研究防波堤平面布置,首先分析了舟山市六横岛小郭巨渔港工程的建设条件,确定防浪掩护控制标准,并提出防波堤直线形、折线形布置的8个平面布置方案。以满足渔船有效泊稳面积为准,采用MIKE21 BW模块计算在50 a一遇波浪与水位组合条件下堤后波高分布及防浪掩护效果,对8个方案进行研究,基于其中相对较优方案,进行了2个方案的优化。最终确定某渔港防波堤平面布置最优方案为:防波堤总长350 m、折堤夹角132°、直线段长122 m、折线段长228 m。     

浅插法大直径钢圆筒在换砂振沉施工中的应用

大直径钢圆筒凭借其特有的优势被应用在大型人工岛护岸项目中.以某大型人工岛项目为例,针对浅插法大直径钢圆筒施工中遇到的一些实际问题进行方案比选.通过对振沉方法、纠偏方式、振沉顺序等技术方案的分析对比,总结出浅插法大直径钢圆筒在换砂基础中应用的主要工艺:点振法振沉工艺、起重船纠偏工艺和顺、跳打振沉顺序.     

水面油膜及漂浮物回收分离装置的研制

针对水面油膜及漂浮物扩散面积大、浮层薄的特点,利用油及漂浮物与水的密度不同这一物理特性,设计一套具有良好水动力性能的水面油膜及漂浮物回收分离装置。载体平台在水面上能够抵御一定的风浪影响,快速、高效地吸收水面表层油膜及漂浮物。完成载体平台、控制系统、油膜及漂浮物回收分离系统的设计及建造,开展系统集成、调试、样机试验等工作,并验证了装置的性能。研究成果可为水面油膜及漂浮物的回收分离设备的研制和应用提供借鉴。     

深海平台砰击载荷的数值分析

文章以深海平台为例,研究在迎浪海况的作用下,波浪对平台的砰击效应.将平台简化为大尺度,深吃水,几何形状规则的刚体,采用计算流体力学中的有限体积方法,将计算区域划分为一系列不重复的控制体积,使每个网格节点周围有一个控制体积,求解离散方程,利用流体体积理论捕捉自由表面的波形.依据三阶斯托克斯波波浪理论,利用fluent软件建立相应的数值水槽,并进行造波及消波设置,得到稳定的波浪场.采用固定平台六自由度的方法,初步地对平台所受的波浪砰击载荷进行分析计算.     

基于最优回归理论的舰船辐射噪声指向性统计模型及分析方法研究

文章在已有单航次的舰船噪声空间特性建模分析方法等研究成果的基础上,进一步研究了若干航次条件下的统计建模及分析方法。该研究主要以单一部位垂向剖面的噪声指向性为例,建立了基于最优回归理论的舰船目标辐射噪声特性的统计模型及分析方法,并开展了海上实测研究,验证了该模型及分析方法的正确性和可行性。该项成果为深入分析不同航行工况下各类舰船目标的噪声空间特性及其统计规律等创造了条件。     

国外舰艇综合电力系统研究综述

舰艇综合电力系统实现了全舰能源的综合利用,是舰艇平台由机械化向电气化和信息化发展的必由之路,代表现代舰艇动力平台的发展方向.本文通过对国外舰艇综合电力系统应用现状、技术状态、军事意义及未来发展趋势进行分析梳理,供相关人员参考.     

Analysis of unsteady flow over Offshore Wind Turbine in combination with different types of foundations

Environmental effects have an important influence on Offshore Wind Turbine (OWT) power generation efficiency and the structural stability of such turbines. In this study, we use an in-house Boundary Element (BEM)—panMARE code—to simulate the unsteady flow behavior of a full OWT with various combinations of aerodynamic and hydrodynamic loads in the time domain. This code is implemented to simulate potential flows for different applications and is based on a three-dimensional first-order panel method. Three different OWT configurations consisting of a generic 5 MW NREL rotor with three different types of foundations (Monopile, Tripod, and Jacket) are investigated. These three configurations are analyzed using the RANSE solver which is carried out using ANSYS CFX for validating the corresponding results. The simulations are performed under the same environmental atmospheric wind shear and rotor angular velocity, and the wave properties are wave height of 4 m and wave period of 7.16 s. In the present work, wave environmental effects were investigated firstly for the two solvers, and good agreement is achieved. Moreover, pressure distribution in each OWT case is presented, including detailed information about local flow fields. The time history of the forces at inflow direction and its moments around the mudline at each OWT part are presented in a dimensionless form with respect to the mean value of the last three loads and the moment amplitudes obtained from the BEM code, where the contribution of rotor force is lower in the tripod case and higher in the jacket case and the calculated hydrodynamic load that effect on jacket foundation type is lower than other two cases.