Roll-induced bifurcation in ship maneuvering under model uncertainty

In this paper, a mathematical model is developed for the maneuvering motion of a naval ship and bifurcations of its equilibrium are identified in roll-coupled motion. The subject ship is a high-speed surface combatant with twin-propeller twin-rudder system. Captive model tests are conducted for the ship using planar motion mechanism. Maneuvering coefficients are calculated by polynomial curve fitting of the test data. Uncertainty distribution in the coefficients is assumed same as that of the curve fitting errors. Uncertainty in the model coefficients is propagated to full-scale simulation results by the stochastic response surface method (SRSM). This method is computationally efficient as compared to standard Monte Carlo simulation technique. The SRSM uses polynomial chaos expansion of orthogonal to fit any probability distribution. Bifurcation analysis of the mathematical model is performed by varying the vertical center of gravity as the bifurcation parameter. Hopf bifurcation is identified. It is found that the bifurcations occur due to the coupling of roll motion with sway, yaw motion and rudder angle. In the presence of wind, roll angle response in bifurcation diagram is discussed.     

Experimental verification of shock sterilization for marine <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vibrio</Emphasis> sp. using microbubbles interacting with underwater shock waves

In this paper, shock sterilization using the motions of microbubbles induced by underwater shock waves is verified experimentally. A bio-experiment is carried out using marine Vibrio sp.. Underwater shock waves are produced by electric discharge in a semi-ellipsoidal discharge reflector. The shock waves are focused to increase the pressure that the generated microbubbles are exposed to. The microbubbles are generated independently. The microbubble generator can produce microbubbles of around 50 μm diameter by means of Kelvin–Helmholz instability and Venturi effect. Propagation behavior of shock waves and generation process of microbubbles are captured by high-speed camera. The experimental results show that the supply of microbubbles increases the potential of shock sterilization. In addition, it is found that shock waves without microbubbles also have the capacity of sterilization, and this means that cavitation bubbles generated behind converging shock waves contribute to inactivating marine bacteria.     

Nonlinear model predictive dynamic positioning control of an underwater vehicle with an onboard USBL system

This paper presents a novel optimization-based approach for dynamic positioning (DP) of a fully actuated underwater vehicle equipped with an onboard ultrashort baseline transceiver to provide relative position information of two earth-fixed transponders near the vehicle. The DP system error is defined by the transponders’ positions compared to the desired values, which occur at the vehicle’s target pose (position and orientation). The proposed DP strategy is composed of two loops in a hierarchical structure. In the kinematic loop, the nonlinear model predictive control is used to generate the desired velocity by optimizing a cost function of the predictive trajectories under the constraints of velocity and transponder bearings over a limited time horizon. In the dynamic loop, the neural network model reference adaptive control with pseudo control hedging is utilized to ensure the asymptotical convergence of velocity tracking errors in the presence of uncertainties associated with unknown model parameters, currents and thruster dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is illustrated by comprehensive simulations.     

胃癌hPOT1基因单核苷酸多态性与幽门螺杆菌感染的关系

目的探讨胃癌中人端粒保护蛋白1基因(hPOT1)IVS13-98G/T位点单核苷酸多态性与幽门螺杆菌(H.pylori)感染的关系。方法采用聚合酶链反应和限制性片段长度多态性技术(PCR-RFLP)对150例外科手术切除的胃癌患者和156例正常对照者行基因型分析,采用PCR和Warthin-Starry银染色法检测幽门螺杆菌。结果胃癌组hPOT1IVS13-98 T/G位点GG、GT、TT基因型的频率分别22.00%、41.67%、36.67%,G、T等位基因频率分别为42.67%、57.33%;对照组GG、GT、TT基因型的频率分别为24.36%、51.92%、23.72%,G、T等位基因频率分别为49.68%和50.32%。两组G、T等位基因型频率比较无统计学意义(2χ=3.0257,P=0.0820)。以T/T基因型作为参照基因型,G/T和G/G两种基因型OR值分别为0.432(95%CI:0.242-0.772,P=0.005)、0.540(95%CI:0.274-1.064,P=0.075)。胃癌中3种基因型H.pylori的检出率无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论hPOT1 IVS13-98G/T单核苷酸多态性可能与甘肃胃癌高发区的胃癌患者有关,可能为胃癌的保护因素。胃癌hPOT1 IVS13-98G/T单核苷酸多态性与H.pylori感染无关。     

Model,process, technique,and the good thing

The paper unpacks the planning process into its component parts: model, process, technique, and goals—the “good thing”. The paper advances the concept that planning, policy-making, and organizational restructuring can be analyzed under the same framework. Each of the four components is described and reductionist examples are presented to clarify the intention and to illustrate the technique that the transport analyst teams employ in their work. The examples cover both successes and failures. They point toward the enormous scientific task ahead for planning to become meaningful and relevant to the problems of today. Finally, in the frame of the willingness to pay, the paper puts forward a case for an institutional framework for a financially autonomous road administration. Similarly organized, administered, and managed entities are relevant also for other transport modes.

How do people respond to congestion mitigation policies? A multivariate probit model of the individual consideration of three travel-related strategy bundles

This study explores the relationships between adoption and consideration of three travel-related strategy bundles (travel maintaining/increasing, travel reducing, and major location/lifestyle change), linking them to a variety of explanatory variables. The data for this study are the responses to a fourteen-page survey returned by nearly 1,300 commuting workers living in three distinct San Francisco Bay area neighborhoods in May 1998. We first identified patterns of adoption and consideration among the bundles, using pairwise correlation tests. The test results indicate that those who have adopted coping strategies continue to seek for improvements across the spectrum of generalized cost, but perhaps most often repeating the consideration of a previously-adopted bundle. Furthermore, we developed a multivariate probit model for individuals’ simultaneous consideration of the three bundles. It is found that in addition to the previous adoption of the bundles, qualitative and quantitative Mobility-related variables, Travel Attitudes, Personality, Lifestyle, Travel Liking, and Sociodemographics significantly affect individual consideration of the strategy bundles. Overall, the results of this study give policy makers and planners insight into understanding the dynamic nature of individuals’ responses to travel-related strategies, as well as differences between the responses to congestion that are assumed by policy makers and those that are actually adopted by individuals.

Modelling daily activity program generation considering within-day and day-to-day dynamics in activity-travel behaviour

This paper presents a comprehensive econometric modelling framework for daily activity program generation. It is for day-specific activity program generations of a week-long time span. Activity types considered are 15 generic categories of non-skeletal and flexible activities. Under the daily time budget and non-negativity of participation rate constraints, the models predict optimal sets of frequencies of the activities under consideration (given the average duration of each activity type). The daily time budget considers at-home basic needs and night sleep activities together as a composite activity. The concept of composite activity ensures the dynamics and continuity of time allocation and activity/travel behaviour by encapsulating altogether the activity types that are not of our direct interest in travel demand modelling. Workers’ total working hours (skeletal activity and not a part of the non-skeletal activity time budget) are considered as a variable in the models to accommodate the scheduling effects inside the generation model of non-skeletal activities. Incorporation of previous day’s total executed activities as variables introduces day-to-day dynamics into the activity program generation models. The possibility of zero frequency of any specific activity under consideration is ensured by the Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions used for formulating the model structure. Models use the concept of random utility maximization approach to derive activity program set. Estimations of the empirical models are done using the 2002–2003 CHASE survey data set collected in Toronto.

Identifying peer states for transportation system evaluation &; policy analyses

The majority of comparisons between state transportation systems do not control for characteristics that may vary greatly between states (e.g., vehicle miles traveled). A shortcoming of such analyses is that a state’s individual characteristics can be highly influential in determining how transportation policy is set and funds are spent. The purpose of this paper is to extend previous efforts to create groups of similar peer states by developing a new methodological framework that incorporates demographic, temporal, and locational variability into the peer group delineations. We collected historical data for 42 variables on transportation infrastructure, population, economy, growth, topography and weather. To examine trends before and after the passage of ISTEA we gathered data over two time periods: 1985 through 1990 and 1995 through 2000. Using principal components analysis (PCA) we reduced variables into seven components, and then statistically clustered states into peer groups for each time period based on the components and the remaining variables. We identified a range of cluster solutions and demonstrate how cluster statistics help to describe the contextual basis behind the peer grouping. The results of this study are to provide government agencies, researchers and the public with a systematic methodological framework for identifying peer states that reflect similar attributes contributing to the development and maintenance of state transportation systems.

Curbing automobile use for sustainable transportation: analysis of mode choice on short home-based trips

This paper analyzes transportation mode choice for short home-based trips using a 1999 activity survey from the Puget Sound region of Washington State, U.S.A. Short trips are defined as those within the 95th percentile walking distance in the data, here 1.40 miles (2.25 km). The mean walking distance was 0.4 miles (0.6 km). The mode distribution was automobile (75%), walk (23%), bicycle (1%), and bus (1%). Walk and bicycle are found less likely as the individual’s age increases. People are more likely to drive if they can or are accustomed to. People in multi-person families are less likely to walk or use bus, especially families with children. An environment that attracts people’s interest and provides activity opportunities encourages people to walk on short trips. Influencing people’s choice of transport mode on short trips should be an important part of efforts encouraging the use of non-automobile alternatives.

The interaction of oblique flexural gravity waves with a small bottom deformation on a porous ocean-bed: Green’s function approach

The interaction of oblique incident water waves with a small bottom deformation on a porous ocean-bed is examined analytically here within the framework of linear water wave theory. The upper surface of the ocean is assumed to be covered by an infinitely extended thin uniform elastic plate, while the lower surface is bounded by a porous bottom surface having a small deformation. By employing a simplified perturbation analysis, involving a small parameter δ(=1), which measures the smallness of the deformation, the governing Boundary Value Problem (BVP) is reduced to a simpler BVP for the first-order correction of the potential function. This BVP is solved using a method based on Green’s integral theorem with the introduction of suitable Green’s function to obtain the first-order potential, and this potential function is then utilized to calculate the first-order reflection and transmission coefficients in terms of integrals involving the shape function c(x) representing the bottom deformation. Consideration of a patch of sinusoidal ripples shows that when the quotient of twice the component of the incident field wave number propagating just below the elastic plate and the ripple wave number approaches one, the theory predicts a resonant interaction between the bed and the surface below the elastic plate. Again, for small angles of incidence, the reflected wave energy is more as compared to the other angles of incidence. It is also observed that the reflected wave energy is somewhat sensitive to the changes in the flexural rigidity of the elastic plate, the porosity of the bed and the ripple wave numbers. The main advantage of the present study is that the results for the values of reflection and transmission coefficients obtained are found to satisfy the energy-balance relation almost accurately.