Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Regulation of the informal transport sector in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: welfare impacts and policy analysis

In Brazil, the explosion of informal transport activity during the past decade has had profound effects on formal public transport systems and is a source of great controversy in the urban transportation sector. A variety of policies have been proposed to manage the growth of the sector. This study seeks to understand how proposed policies will impact the users of these systems. A corridor in Rio de Janeiro with substantial informal activity was used as a case study. Measures of welfare changes in a discrete choice framework were used to estimate proposed policies’ impacts on users. Eleven candidate policies were evaluated, ranging from the eradication of the informal modes and investment in formal modes, to the legalization of the informal modes. Benefits were compared with costs and the distribution of benefits across income classes was explored. Net benefits from some policies were found to be substantial. Legalizing the informal sector was found to benefit users slightly but further investments in the sector are probably inefficient. Users benefited most from improvements in formal mass transit modes, at roughly 100–200 dollars per commuter per year. Finally, policies to foster a competitive environment for the delivery of both informal and formal services were shown to benefit users about 100 dollars per commuter per year. Together, the regulation of the informal sector and investments in the formal sector serve to reinforce the movement towards competitive concessions for services and help reduce the impacts of cartelization and costly in-road competition.

复杂地层地铁旁通道冻结孔施工技术

在复杂地层中,对地铁旁通道采用水平冻结法施工是一种有效手段,而冻结孔施工又是旁通道工程的关键工序之一.结合上海地铁十一号线祁连山-真南路站区间旁通道施工实例,介绍了含承压水的砂性土复杂地层中旁通道冻结孔的施工技术,包括壁后预注浆加固、冻结孔开孔以及夯管等技术,对类似地质条件下旁通道冻结孔施工具有一定的参考价值和指导意义.     

高韧性纤维水泥稳定碎石路用性能研究

反射裂缝是沥青路面半刚性基层中常有出现的问题,研究提出将自主研发的特种高韧性纤维掺入到水泥稳定碎石中,达到改善其抗裂性能的目的,通过测定多种纤维掺量水泥稳定碎石的无侧限抗压强度、劈裂强度、单轴压缩模量及收缩系数,分析该特种高韧性纤维对水稳碎石材料性能影响的变化规律。试验结果表明：随着纤维掺量逐渐大,水泥稳定碎石养护7、28、90 d的无侧限抗压强度和劈裂强度均呈现先增大后减小的趋势,且各种指标强度均在1‰纤维掺量时最大,单轴压缩模量在2‰下有最大值。养护90 d的无侧限抗压强度和劈裂强度在掺入1‰纤维后分别提高14.1％和9％;掺加特种高韧性纤维能够改善水稳碎石材料的收缩性能,纤维掺量为1‰时,温缩系数和干缩系数分别比不掺时提高14.1％和12.8％。     

Tool for Predicting the Ultimate Bending Moment of Ship and Ship-Shaped Hull Girders

The present paper presents a historical review associated with the research works on hull girder strength of ship and ship-shaped structures. Then, a new program is developed to determine the ultimate vertical bending moment of hull girder by applying direct method, stress distribution method, and progressive collapse analysis method. Six ships and ship-shaped structures used in the benchmark study of International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress (ISSC) in 2012 are adopted as examples. The calculation results by applying the developed program are analyzed and compared with the existing results. Finally, the roles of the developed program and its further development are discussed.     

Real-Time Fault Diagnosis for Gas Turbine Blade Based on Output-Hidden Feedback Elman Neural Network

In order to remotely monitor and maintain large-scale complex equipment in real time, China Telecom plans to create a total solution that integrates remote data collection, transmission, storage, analysis and prediction. This solution can provide manufacturers with proactive, systematic, integrated operation and maintenance service, and the data analysis and health forecasting are the most important part. This paper conducts health management for the turbine blades. Elman neural network, and improved Elman neural network, i.e., outputhidden feedback (OHF) Elman neural network are studied as the main research methods. The results verify the applicability of OHF Elman neural network.     

对地铁运营物资高效管理的探讨

随着城市轨道交通的快速发展,轨道交通网络加剧成型,物资供应和保障面临巨大挑战,探讨新的物资管理模式势在必行。本文着重围绕供应链中的各个实施要点阐述,从价格比对体系、采购计划、供应商、库存管理和物资配送等方面进行了论述,对于从事轨道交通物资管理的相关人员有一定的参考和借鉴意义。     

Review of Secure Communication Approaches for In-Vehicle Network

In the connected vehicles, connecting interfaces bring threats to the vehicles and they can be hacked to impact the vehicles and drivers. Compared with traditional vehicles, connected vehicles require more information transfer. Sensor signals and critical data must be protected to ensure the cyber security of connected vehicles. The communications among ECUs, sensors, and gateways are connected by in-vehicle networks. This paper discussed the state-of-art techniques about secure communication for in-vehicle networks. First, the related concepts in automotive secure communication have been provided. Then we have compared and contrasted existing approaches for secure communication. We have analyzed the advantages/disadvantages of MAC and digital signatures for message authentication and compared the performance and limitations of different cryptographic algorithms. Firewall and intrusion detection system are introduced to protect the networks. The constraints and features of different intrusion detection approaches are presented. After that, the technical requirements for cryptographic mechanism and intrusion detection policy are concluded. Based on the review of current researches, the future development directions of the automotive network security have been discussed. The purpose of this paper is to review current techniques on automotive secure communication and suggest suitable secure approaches to implement on the in-vehicle networks.     

Creep Life Prediction of Alloy 718 for Automotive Engine Materials

This study was carried out to investigate the creep life at the high temperature of the Alloy 718 for automotive engine components using the initial strain parameter method (ISPM). Creep tests have performed at elevated temperatures in the range of 550 oC to 700 oC in this work. We also carried out constant stress creep tests. The initial strains were measured during 1 minute after loading. Both the creep stress and rupture time depend on the initial strain. We calculated the creep life of Alloy 718 by using the creep life prediction equations obtained from the ISPM. Then, we compared the creep life predicted by the ISPM to the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP). The experimental rupture time and the calculated rupture time by using the ISPM agreed with a confidence level of 95 %. The creep life predicted by using the ISPM was in very good agreement with the creep life predicted using the LMP method.