A simulation-based probabilistic design method for arctic sea transport systems

When designing an arctic cargo ship, it is necessary to consider multiple stochastic factors. This paper evaluates the merits of a simulation-based probabilistic design method specifically developed to deal with this challenge. The outcome of the paper indicates that the incorporation of simulations and probabilistic design parameters into the design process enables more informed design decisions. For instance, it enables the assessment of the stochastic transport capacity of an arctic ship, as well as of its long-term ice exposure that can be used to determine an appropriate level of ice-strengthening. The outcome of the paper also indicates that significant gains in transport system cost-efficiency can be obtained by extending the boundaries of the design task beyond the individual vessel. In the case of industrial shipping, this allows for instance the consideration of port-based cargo storage facilities allowing for temporary shortages in transport capacity and thus a reduction in the required fleet size / ship capacity.     

Effects of task complexity and time pressure on activity-travel choices: heteroscedastic logit model and activity-travel simulator experiment

This paper derives, estimates and applies a discrete choice model of activity-travel behaviour that accommodates potential effects of task complexity and time pressure on decision-making. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that both factors (task complexity and time pressure) are jointly captured in a discrete choice model. More specifically, our heteroscedastic logit model captures potential impacts of task complexity and time pressure through the scale of the utility of activity-travel options. We collect data using a novel activity-travel simulator experiment that has been specifically designed with the aim of testing our model. Results are in line with expectations, in that higher levels of task complexity and time pressure are found to result in a smaller scale of utility. In other words, higher levels of task complexity and time pressure lead to more random choice behaviour and as a consequence to less pronounced differences in choice probabilities between alternatives. An empirical illustration suggests that choice probability-differences between models that do and those that do not capture these effects, can be very substantial; this in turn suggests that failing to capture the effects of task complexity and time pressure in discrete choice models of activity travel decision-making might lead to serious bias in forecasts of the effects of transport policies.     

The digital revolution and worthwhile use of travel time: implications for appraisal and forecasting

Savings in travel time and more specifically their monetary value typically constitute the main benefit to justify major investment in transport schemes. However, worthwhile use of travel time is an increasingly prominent phenomenon of the digital age. Accordingly, questions are increasingly being asked regarding whether values of time used by countries around the world based on their appraisal approaches are too high. This paper offers the most comprehensive examination of our theoretical and empirical understandings of international appraisal approaches and how they account for worthwhile use of travel time. It combines the economics perspective with wider social science insight and reaches the conclusion that past revolutions in transport that have made longer and quicker journeys possible are now joined by a digital revolution that is reducing the disutility of travel time. This revolution offers potential economic benefit that comes at a fraction of the cost of major investments in transport that are predicated on saving travel time. The paper highlights the challenges faced in both current and indeed potential alternative future appraisal approaches. Such challenges are rooted in the difficulty of measuring time use and productivity with sufficient accuracy and over time to credibly account for how travel time factors into the economic outcomes from social and working practices in the knowledge economy. There is a need for further research to: establish how improvements in the opportunities for and the quality of worthwhile use of travel time impact on the valuation of travel time savings for non-business travel; improve our understanding of how productive use of time impacts on the valuation of time savings for business travellers; and estimate how these factors have impacted on the demand for different modes of travel.     

Integral transform solution for fluid force investigation of a flexible circular cylinder subject to vortex-induced vibrations

In the present paper, fluid force distribution of a long flexible cylinder subject to vortex-induced vibrations is investigated by Generalized Integral Transform Technique (GITT). This method is using experimental response data as input, and then implementing GITT to transfer the governing differential equations to ordinary differential equations. Therefore, the selection of truncation order could be analyzed to avoid the error induced by the high-mode response. Once each mode contribution of fluid force is obtained, the analytical inversion transfer recovers the fluid force. An experiment was carried out in a towing tank and the experimental response was accurately measured and used as input, then GITT was performed to calculate the fluid force distribution of the long flexible cylinder. The comparison between the numerical results from GITT and the experimental results from load cell verified the capability and availability of the proposed method. If one can use this method for lower modes, then one certainly can extend the method for higher modes. Two experimental cases from the literature were evaluated and good agreement was obtained based on the spatio-temporal evolutions of the lift coefficient and the mode numbers. Since this method is easy to implement, it could be an alternative method to investigate fluid force of such slender structures.     

Experimental study on piston- and sloshing- mode moonpool resonances

An experimental study was performed on the piston- and sloshing-mode moonpool resonances of offshore structures. Two different geometries were considered to investigate the flow characteristics in a plain moonpool and a moonpool with a cofferdam. To examine the efficiency of a cofferdam for reducing the flow in a moonpool, three cofferdam geometries were tested. The plain moonpool presented violent flows as a result of the piston- and sloshing-mode resonances. However, the moonpool with the cofferdam introduced violent sloshing waves instead of the ascent and descent of the water column in the piston-mode moonpool resonance. Among three different cofferdam geometries, the model with a right triangle facing to the left on the top of the cofferdam was most effective in reducing the flow in the moonpool when compared with the other models.     

组合曲线梁桥的结构分析方法及应用

综合考虑曲线梁桥的力学特点和组合结构的受力特性,建立了组合曲线梁桥在空间受力情况下的结构分析理论及分析模型,编制出组合曲线梁桥的结构分析软件,并应用该软件对一座异型组合曲线立交桥进行了分析。     

铁路岩石边坡坡度的确定及稳定性分析程序库

本文以铁路岩石边坡坡度的确定及稳定性分析系统为依据,编制了计算 机程序,建成了包括30个子程序的程序库并在CAsIOPB一700型便排 式微机以及IBM等微机上运行。本文简要介绍该程序库的概况。      

Factors associated with bicycle ownership and use: a study of six small U.S. cities

As a means of transportation and as a form of physical activity, bicycling generates benefits to the bicyclist as well as to the community as a whole. Bicycling now accounts for less than 1 percent of all trips for all purposes in the U.S., but evidence from other western countries suggests that under the right conditions, bicycling levels can be significantly higher. Indeed, the experiences of some U.S. cities suggest that it is possible to create conditions conducive to higher levels of bicycling even in the U.S. However, the extent to which bicycle investments have contributed to bicycling levels in these communities has not been rigorously assessed. The purpose of this study is to provide a better understanding of the determinants of bicycle ownership and use as a basis for identifying ways to promote bicycling. A cross-sectional study of six cities was designed to test the importance of bicycle infrastructure and other physical environment factors relative to individual factors and social environment factors, using a nested logit model to examine ownership and use decisions jointly. The results show strong effects of individual attitudes and physical and social environment factors on bicycle ownership and use.