Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

Step-tolling with price-sensitive demand: Why more steps in the toll make the consumer better off

Most dynamic models of congestion pricing use fully time-variant tolls. However, in practice, tolls are uniform over the day, or at most have just a few steps. Such uniform and step tolls have received surprisingly little attention from the literature. Moreover, most models that do study them assume that demand is insensitive to the price. This seems an empirically questionable assumption that, as this paper finds, strongly affects the implications of step tolling for the consumer. In the bottleneck model, first-best tolling has no effect on the generalised price, and thus consumer surplus remains the same as without tolling. Conversely, under price-sensitive demand, step tolling increases the price, making the consumer worse off. The more steps the toll has, the closer it approximates the first-best toll, thereby increasing the welfare gain and making consumers better off. This indicates the importance for real-world tolls to have as many steps as possible: this not only raises welfare, but may also increase the political acceptability of the scheme by making consumers better off.     

Impacts of urban built environment on empty taxi trips using limited geolocation data

This study identifies the determinants of the empty taxi trip duration (ETTD) by combining three high-resolution databases—geolocation data in New York City, geodatabase of urban planning data, and transportation facilities data. Considering the nature of duration data, hazard-based duration model is proposed to explore the relationships between causal factors and ETTD, coupling with three variations of baseline hazard distribution, i.e., Weibull distribution with heterogeneity, Weibull distribution, and log-logistic. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test is presented to implement comparisons of three baseline hazard distributions, as well as spatial and temporal transferability of causal factors. The results show significant complementary effects by subway system and competitive effects by city bus and bicycling system, as well as significant impacts of trip length, airport trip, average annual income, and employment rate. Urban built environment, for instance, density of road, public facilities, and recreational sites and ratio of green space, has various impacts on ETTD. The elasticity estimations confirm significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in impacts on ETTD. In addition, the analysis on elasticity also reveals the considerable impacts of severe traffic congestion on ETTD within Manhattan. The modeling can assist stakeholders in understanding empty taxi movements and measuring taxi system efficiency in urban areas.     

Effect of nozzle orifice diameter on diesel spray tip penetration according to various spray models for CFD simulation with widely varying back pressure

CFD simulations of spray tip penetration with the standard KIVA3V, ‘original gas jet’ and ‘Normal gas jet profile with breakup length formula’ (NGJBL) spray models were performed to investigate the effects of nozzle orifice size and ambient gas density combinations on the spray penetration. The accuracy of the CFD simulation results was estimated by comparing them with available experimental data. The ambient gas density was varied in 12 kg/m³ intervals from 12 to 69 kg/m³ for each nozzle orifice diameter. The nozzle orifice diameters used were 119, 140, 183 and 206 mm. A total of 20 cases in the CFD simulations were considered with combinations of the 4 nozzle orifice diameters and 5 ambient gas densities. CFD simulations with the NGJBL spray model were more accurate than those with either the standard KIVA3V or gas jet spray models as the nozzle orifice diameter and ambient gas density was increased. The NGJBL and original gas jet model is more effective in predicting the spray tip penetration near the nozzle tip region.     

Vibration reduction of H/Shaft using an electromagnetic damper with mode change

The objective of this study is to develop a damper that can reduce the amplitude of vibration in various frequency ranges. Previous H/Shaft vibration reduction methods work in a passive way. A dynamic damper reduces the amplitude of vibration at its first mode, but vibration still appears at the second mode. A mass damper or hollow shaft can shift the natural frequency to a lower or higher region. The fixed operating frequency prevents vibration from being reduced outside the operating frequency range. The proposed damper uses electromagnets as either masses or actuators to change the damper mode between dynamic damper mode and mass damper mode. The electromagnetic damper (EMD) can change its mode to respond to the vibration excitation at both low and high frequencies. The vibration reduction performance was evaluated by FRF tests in laboratory and vehicle conditions. The results were compared with those of a dynamic damper and indicate that the amplitude of vibration is reduced by 95.6 % when the EMD is implemented on an H/Shaft, whereas only 61.9 % vibration reduction is achieved by the dynamic damper.     

Home-to-work commuting,urban form and potential energy savings: A local scale approach to regional statistics

The link between transport energy consumption and land use patterns has been the focus of a considerable amount of academic works over the past decades. While many empirical researches are backed up with solid statistical techniques, most of them do not fully consider the influence of scale underlying empirical quantitative investigations. Using fine-scale home-to-work commuting data for Wallonia (Belgium), this paper re-evaluates Breheny’s (1995) assertion that urban structure should hold the characteristics of major cities if substantial energy savings are to be achieved. A local scale approach highlights efficient settlements in terms of transport energy consumption not only within major towns, but also within remote rural areas. Furthermore, results suggest that influencing the urban form following local energy efficient examples rather than regional ones could also yield significant gains, without an extreme policy stance of re-urbanisation in major cities.     

An analysis of destination choice for opaque airline products using multidimensional binary logit models

We investigate how customers respond to an opaque airline product offered by a European carrier. In this opaque product design, customers are randomly assigned to travel to one of approximately ten destinations; however, for a fee they may exclude one or more destinations from the choice set (or a particular package design) prior to learning which destination they will travel to. We use a multidimensional binary logit model to predict the probability that one or more alternatives will be chosen by a customer. Results show that customers are more likely to pay to exclude destinations located close to the origin airport and destinations that speak the same language as the origin airport. Length of stay, cost of living at the destination, and measures of destination attractiveness are also found to be significant predictors for some package designs. Based on these findings, we offer general recommendations for how to design opaque packages for airline customers.     

Some Difficulties inherent in applying Congestion Theory to Marine Problems

This paper sets out to evaluate the main areas of focus within maritime sociology and to link more closely than hitherto the various substantive discussions with general theoretical and conceptual approaches. More specifically, it suggests directions in which maritime sociology may be advanced at both empirical and conceptual levels in the future.     

Developing a Spatially Enabled Inventory of Recreational Boats Using Vessel Registration Data

Effective waterway management requires information on the characteristics and locations of boats. A field-based boat census—a traditional method to obtain spatially accurate information—is relatively expensive, time-consuming, and restrictive in scope. Vessel registration data, maintained by all U.S. states, is potentially a more robust information source. This research evaluated the accuracy and reliability of vessel registration data to supply location and attribute information for boats. The study premise was to use vessel registration data, which includes the mailing address of registered boat owners, to develop a spatially enabled inventory of boats. The study area comprised 12,064 salt-water accessible property parcels in two Florida counties. An on-water census (OWC) provided location and characteristics for 5,023 vessels, which were compared to 8,681 vessel registration records linked to the study area. Discrepancies between the OWC and vessel registration data were explained by a stratified, random sample of 485 telephone survey respondents. Study results show that vessel registration data accurately located and characterized roughly 81% of the boat population; in contrast, the OWC accurately located less than 56%. A conclusion is that state vessel registration data is a better alternative than an OWC for locating and characterizing boats kept along waterways.     

Rapid first-stage tests of on-ship infection

Protection against on-ship infectious disease—whether due to mishap or to harmful purpose—faces special situational problems. Sometimes, when infection levels on board have reached threshold levels, emergency actions are required. Often, the most thorough strategies for responding to threat are not feasible. A rapid first-stage test (RFT) is a fast, minimally invasive procedure used to rule out from possible infection a large percentage of an infection-threatened group. Prevention and control of on-ship infection need to combine various interconnected tactics. When timely criterion tests are not possible, the medical team must adopt fast alternative measures. The methods used to summarize protection against on-ship infectious agents included a scientific literature review and a web search. The fields of the review were maritime, health, and technology sources. Special attention was paid to material dealing with risks and threats of on-ship penetration by infectious agents, on-ship infection prevalence thresholds, and rapid diagnostic screens. The Bayes rule and the law of large numbers were applied to the analysis, for large on-ship populations, of RFT indications of crossing of an infection prevalence threshold. The increasing risk of serious on-ship infection—either accidental or purposeful—calls for a multi-layered protection approach. RFTs are a key part of the outer layer of such a defense. Well-designed and well-administered RFTs provide several advantages for defense against on-ship infection: low-cost, non-invasive, fast, and focuses on a drastically smaller number of infection possibilities.