One city,three models: comparison of land‐use/transport policy simulation models for Dortmund

The paper reports on simulation experiments conducted by the International Study Group on Land‐Use/Transport Interaction (ISGLUTI) for the metropolitan region of Dortmund in the Federal Republic of Germany. Three land‐use/transport simulation models were applied to the Dortmund region: the DORTMUND model developed at the University of Dortmund, the LILT model being used at University College London and the MEPLAN package developed by Marcial Echenique & Partners in Cambridge. The three models are briefly characterized and their ex‐post forecasts are compared with the actual development of the region. The final section of the paper compares how the three models respond to a common set of assumptions and policies from the fields of land‐use control, traffic management and transport investment. The differences in model response give insights into the validity of the theoretical foundations and internal structure of the models.     

Competition and ownership in land passenger transport: the fourth international conference — Part 2

In the rail industry worldwide, there has been a search for new solutions, including restructuring, corporatization, and outright privatization, but the complexity of the rail industry offers special problems. In the Workshop we looked in detail at the British, Swedish, German, Australian (New South Wales) and New Zealand experiences, as well as considering more general issues such as cost structures, vertical separation and competitive tendering. Whilst it was agreed that some developments, such as greater contracting out, were clearly beneficial, other developments such as the separation of infrastructure from operations remained of uncertain value until the issues of efficient pricing and slot allocation were resolved.     

Sample size requirements for stated choice experiments

Stated choice (SC) experiments represent the dominant data paradigm in the study of behavioral responses of individuals, households as well as other organizations, yet in the past little has been known about the sample size requirements for models estimated from such data. Traditional orthogonal designs and existing sampling theories does not adequately address the issue and hence researchers have had to resort to simple rules of thumb or ignore the issue and collect samples of arbitrary size, hoping that the sample is sufficiently large enough to produce reliable parameter estimates, or are forced to make assumptions about the data that are unlikely to hold in practice. In this paper, we demonstrate how a recently proposed sample size computation can be used to generate so-called S-efficient designs using prior parameter values to estimate panel mixed multinomial logit models. Sample size requirements for such designs in SC studies are investigated. In a numerical case study is shown that a D-efficient and even more an S-efficient design require a (much) smaller sample size than a random orthogonal design in order to estimate all parameters at the level of statistical significance. Furthermore, it is shown that wide level range has a significant positive influence on the efficiency of the design and therefore on the reliability of the parameter estimates.     

Parameter estimability in the multinomial probit model

A particular parameter estimability problem in the multinomial probit model is considered. Making use of a model discussed in the literature, some problems with the usual method of specification are discussed. Some general comments are made on the problem of selecting a normalisation when using the multinomial probit model.     

A dynamic stochastic assignment model for the analysis of general networks

The paper adopts the framework employed by the existing dynamic assignment models, which analyse specific network forms, and develops a methodology for analysing general networks. Traffic conditions within a link are assumed to be homogeneous, and the time varying O-D travel times and traffic flow patterns are calculated using elementary relationships from traffic flow theory and link volume conservation equations. Each individual is assumed to select a departure time and a route by trading off the travel time and schedule delay associated with each alternative. A route is considered as reasonable if it includes only links which do not take the traveller back to the origin. The set of reasonable routes is not consistant but depends on the time that an individual decides to depart from his origin. Equilibrium distributions are derived from a Markovian model which describes the evolution of travel patterns from day to day. Numerical simulation experiments are conducted to analyse the impact of different work start time flexibilities on the time dependent travel patterns. The similarity between link flows and travel times obtained from static and dynamic stochastic assignment is investigated. It is shown that in congested networks the application of static assignment results in travel times which are lower than the ones predicted by dynamic assignment.     

基于车激动力响应互相关指标的桥梁基础冲刷诊断方法

针对当前桥梁基础冲刷诊断和检测方法过程复杂、成本高且受环境影响大等问题,提出一种基于车激动力响应互相关指标的桥梁基础冲刷诊断方法。该方法通过桥墩和桥跨不同测点的纵向加速度响应自由衰减段信号的互相关分析,建立基础冲刷诊断指标体系,实现冲刷定位和均匀性诊断。首先,依据互相关函数幅值向量置信度判据指标进行基础冲刷初判;然后,通过响应互相关函数幅值向量因子变化率向量进行冲刷定位,再根据横桥向互相关函数幅值变化率向量诊断冲刷均匀性;并通过统计评估方法提高诊断精度;最后,结合1座连续梁桥算例进行多种冲刷工况的数值仿真分析,对所提方法的有效性和适用性进行验证。结果表明：该方法能够很好地实现基础冲刷的定位和均匀性诊断,指标具有较高敏感性;同时具有较好的抗噪性能,通过所提出诊断指标体系的综合使用可消除噪声对诊断结果的干扰。该方法具有诊断结果精度高、过程简便易行、无需进行复杂且误差较大的模态识别、允许试验测试参数和条件适量变化等优点,可嵌入常规桥梁荷载试验同步开展,具有很好的工程应用潜力和实用价值。     

Evasive manoeuvres with a steering robot

In the pursuit of an objective rating on vehicle stability performance, it is always desirable to reduce disturbances and inconsistencies during experimental evaluations, especially the ones introduced by human drivers. This paper presents the development of a steering robot designed for closed-loop steering tasks during evasive manoeuvres. It describes the controller structure and discusses experimental results, in addition to simulation/vehicle model verifications and theoretical control analysis.     

Insights into vehicle trajectories at the handling limits: analysing open data from race car drivers

Race car drivers can offer insights into vehicle control during extreme manoeuvres; however, little data from race teams is publicly available for analysis. The Revs Program at Stanford has built a collection of vehicle dynamics data acquired from vintage race cars during live racing events with the intent of making this database publicly available for future analysis. This paper discusses the data acquisition, post-processing, and storage methods used to generate the database. An analysis of available data quantifies the repeatability of professional race car driver performance by examining the statistical dispersion of their driven paths. Certain map features, such as sections with high path curvature, consistently corresponded to local minima in path dispersion, quantifying the qualitative concept that drivers anchor their racing lines at specific locations around the track. A case study explores how two professional drivers employ distinct driving styles to achieve similar lap times, supporting the idea that driving at the limits allows a family of solutions in terms of paths and speed that can be adapted based on specific spatial, temporal, or other constraints and objectives.